What happened Tuesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; ICBC cuts home loan rates & BNZ trims TD rates, truckometer shows some signs, IRD has success collecting student loans, swaps firmer, NZD softer, & more

[updated]

13th May 25, 4:01pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC cut two key fixed rates to market-low levels. More here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed many term deposit rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A GREEN SHOOT, MAYBE ...
The ANZ truckometer monitoring suggests a modest economic recovery is underway, although not one strong enough to improve per capita outcomes.

GOOD ROI
The IRD says they collected more than $207 mln in repayments since July last year from student loan borrowers living overseas – a +43% increase on the same period the previous year. Much of this success can be attributed to an increase in Student Loan Compliance funding in last year’s budget.

TRACKING HARDSHIP
It may be a bit of a lagging indicator, but tracking the number of people who withdraw KiwiSaver funds because of hardship reasons is a mirror to the state of the economy. In mid 2016 the average withdrawal for that sort of stress was $5000. Almost ten years later, the average withdrawal is $9000. (Inflation has been low in this period, averaging 3.2%, so $5000 in mif 2016 is now worth $6,600 according to the RBNZ inflation calculator. So current withdrawals are relatively higher now by a third.) You can see how this played out over time here.

ELEVATED RETURNS TEMPTS GOVT TO WITHDRAW FROM SUPER FUND EARLIER
The Government said it will begin drawing money from the Superannuation Fund by the end of this decade as the wealth fund grows and population ages. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said $32 million would be withdrawn to help cover the cost of pensions in 2028 according to Treasury forecasts and the legislated formula. This formula is designed to deplete the fund at the end of a 40-year-period over which the fund is supposed to help cover the cost of superannuation. It had previously been expected to require withdrawals starting in 2032. While Willis said a small withdrawal would occur in 2028, it would not be until 2031 that there would be money drawn from the fund every year. However, the total assets will continue to grow at first as returns will outstrip withdrawals and the 40-year time horizon in the formula resets every year — pushing the depletion date further and further into the future. In Parliament, Willis said the earlier withdrawal start date was largely due to higher-than-expected returns. NZ Super was recently named the world’s best-performing sovereign wealth fund, with a 10% average annual return after costs over the past 20 years.

SLACK IMMUNISATION RATES
The Government said today it is making progress in getting the MMR immunisation rates up. In November, just 75.7% of two-year olds were immunised. Now it is 80.2%. But it is a long way from the 95% level needed to protect the population.

NZX EXTENDS ITS POSITIVITY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% so far today, again. That means it is up +2.8% for the past week, down -2.3% since the start of the year, and up +9.6% from this time last year. There are 59 gainers today led by Mainfreight, Serko, Vulcan Steel and Skellerup. There are 25 decliners led by Synlait, a2 Milk, Kathmandu, The Warehouse, and Infratil. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.9% so far today.

'SLACK' IS SLACK
Do you use Slack? We do, and the experience has been rubbish today, undermining our development conversations. An irritation for us, probably a real mess for many others.

NOT SO KEEN TO VISIT
Updated data out in Australia seem to indicate that we are losing the desire to visit there. The said there were 104,600 visits by Kiwis in March, -9.3% fewer than in March 2024 and almost -10% fewer than in March 2018 (a pre-pandemic equivalent). For the year to March 2025, we made 1.367 mln visits to Australia, little different (+1.4%) to the same year in 2024. It is a similar story for Aussies visiting New Zealand. In March 2025 it was -1.7% fewer than the same month a year earlier.

NOT BETTER, BUT NOT WORSE EITHER
Consumer sentiment in Australia has stayed weak in March, according to a widely-watched Westpac-MM survey.

A CLEANOUT
And staying in Australia, Sussan Ley has been elected as the first woman to lead the Liberal Party. That probably spells the end of the Tony Abbott/hard-right era (even though she had a place in his government). And a complete rejection of the Murdoch-led attack-style the party followed to disaster. The Liberals will probably now become a center-right political influence again.

SWAP RATES MAY HAVE FIRMED MORE
Wholesale swap rates may have risen today, across the board as global risk premiums rise. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.37% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.66% and was up +7 bps to 4.62% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.46%, up +5 bps.

EQUITIES IN RELIEF RALLY
The NZX50 is up +0.8% today, and the ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.7 in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.4% having overdone it yesterday while Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.5%. Wall Street rose strongly, with the S&P500 up +3.3% in Monday trade.

OIL MARGINALLY FIRMER AGAIN
The oil price is little-changed to firmer at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
The carbon price is little-changed at NZ$52.20/NZU and still on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RETREATS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$42/oz from this time yesterday at US$3228/oz.

NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.5 and down only -10 bps.

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is at US$101,878 which is down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.3%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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45 Comments

by Yvil | 13th May 25, 4:26pm 1747110367

5.19% for 6 months is a very good rate, one worth swapping banks for, if the main banks don't trim their 6 month rate.

by Kate | 13th May 25, 4:33pm 1747110793

Does the government not see that as the bulk of the population gets older and older - it also gets poorer and poorer.

Maybe I'd never get elected, but I'd be building more elder social housing and aged care facilities at a frenetic pace and at the same time, means-testing super. NEVER in the history of NZ has our cohort of retirees been wealthier - and never again will it achieve such accumulated wealth in the future.

The fact that Kiwisaver withdrawals for emergency purposes are rising well above inflation adjusted terms, should tell any government that the future for the next gen of retirees in 30-40 years time is going to be grim; and the higher ratio of working to non-working is going to be hell on today's primary school children.

Maybe I'm an exception, but I'll vote for any party that lays this projected future out in full.

by KH | 13th May 25, 5:05pm 1747112754

Yes Kate. And National Super will break. As the saying goes, "slowly, then all of a sudden"

We need plan B now.

by Zachary Smith | 13th May 25, 6:15pm 1747116942

No it won't.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 6:18pm 1747117116

If it doesn't break, then it'll just become more worthless.

Anyone under about 50 shouldn't be factoring it into their retirement workings.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 6:34pm 1747118052

How do you means test? Clearly by asset less liabilities. Simple transfer everything to a trust and collect super...

Most kiwi's biggest asset is their home, exclude that and you will mainly capture the multiple house owners (not be popular on this site proven by comments here already)

Exclude the home and a little old lady in a 4mil mansion in Epsom will still get super.

I think in Aussie they means test but with a sliding scale... worth looking at that IMHO

easy for them such large private super already

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 6:37pm 1747118228

There is some level of state clawback from assets, as soon as someone old needs protracted medical or rest home care. That's often a higher value than just paying super.

Something like what you're talking about will be instituted when the voter demographics shift younger. But then, they'll want super also....

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 6:41pm 1747118467

There is an element of Logan's run in that once you get into hospital level care they start talking about an end of life plan.... with the family, not necessarily the oldie.

Average time in the big house is 18 months. at about $1200 a week

by rolande | 13th May 25, 10:19pm 1747131557

They can means test the same way that they means test for all other forms of welfare, including sickness, unemployment, student allowance, working for families etc. never 100% effective but close enough

by rastus | 14th May 25, 8:39am 1747168770

You have no idea how effective or not it is!

It is a voluntary disclosure based system.

by Kate | 13th May 25, 6:44pm 1747118675

Yes, but it is the under 50s workers of today who are having to tap into their retirement savings (KiwiSaver) at a growing rate - as reported above.

It (retirement prospects in NZ) is breaking as we speak.

The evidence is plain to see.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 6:46pm 1747118804

Mainly because there current outgoings are too high? why is this Kate?

by Kate | 13th May 25, 8:16pm 1747124190

Because they are renting in that the boomers were competing with them for first homes? Only these homes were the boomers, second, third and fourth homes?

A guess.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 8:18pm 1747124283

In fairness

Sometimes life happens, divorce, illness, redundancy, whatever. Which can severely impact someone's financial situation.

But getting old is a near certainty, and something someone needs to provision for. There's a heck of a lot of people life has caught up too quickly on, that made a lot of different life priorities.

by Yvil | 13th May 25, 5:19pm 1747113555

Let me get that right Kate. You want to reward people who have been negligent with money throughout their lives by paying them super, at the expense of those who have been frugal with money, by not paying them back the tax money they paid throughout their lives ?

by AN Other | 13th May 25, 5:25pm 1747113947

True, that is worth pointing out. But might you have an alternative that isn't:

A. Having the government borrowing more, or

B. Enforced euthanasia at 70.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 6:35pm 1747118110

We have had the Logan's Run discussion before... I do not think its an easy sell to the older electorate

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 6:39pm 1747118360

Historically, retirement wasn't really a thing, you'd die much younger, or plough on till the end, but usually in a group that'd look after you, if they have surplus resources.

We weren't going to nail it first try.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 6:45pm 1747118730

I know we can keep people alive longer, but spend some time in the big house, many of the "inmates" want to die themselves, they are over it.

For most the last 12 months are in and out of hospital with infections etc, downhill as not eating crap food in hospital, if they survive they win another 3 months before the next urinary tract infection puts them back in hospital etc.

Its a crap situation....

But yeah NZ First cannot sell it, National keeps saying the we can afford with growth growth growth, but any actuary or economist knows we are screwed if tax take falls or young go offshore.

by Kate | 13th May 25, 6:51pm 1747119094

Agree - except for the "if" in your last sentence.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 7:04pm 1747119845

True we are just screwed.

Eventually if unaffordable and then it will be means tested.

But by not being honest, it does not allow people to plan for this eventual outcome considering there own situation.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 7:29pm 1747121397

I know we can keep people alive longer, but spend some time in the big house, many of the "inmates" want to die themselves, they are over it.

We haven't provisioned for the fact you can keep someone alive for years, using increasingly expensive medical technology.

by Let me be Frank | 13th May 25, 8:36pm 1747125397

We have, it is just unspoken...triage is a thing.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 8:49pm 1747126177

Well then we didn't provision to apply triage in a substantive way. Instead, we'll spend hundreds of thousands of dollars preserving someone who's become a cabbage. Not that I'm saying we shouldn't or should, just that it's not been funded for, other than debt or increased taxes on workers.

by Let me be Frank | 13th May 25, 8:51pm 1747126312

It hasnt been funded...full stop.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 9:15pm 1747127747

So we haven't provisioned for it then.....

by Foxglove. | 13th May 25, 5:42pm 1747114972

At the time of the Obama presidency in transit we got into conversation with a middle aged American couple. She a district judge, he a corporate/ insurance attorney. Why did they not like President Obama? Because he was a socialist with socialist policies. What was so undesirable about socialist policies then? It means they will take money from us that we have earned, saved and paid tax on for both, and give it to some who have done none of those things. There it is.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 6:25pm 1747117541

It's a pickle

- the 'tax money' was never saved and put aside, it was just spent on whatever expenses of the day the government had

- we can argue removing it is breaking a social contract the state made with future retirees at the time

- but we can also argue that sustaining that system comes at a horrendous cost for current and future workers, of which there's a diminishing number. That and the current social contract with a 2025 20 year old, is a hell of a lot shorter than it was for say, a 1975 20 year old.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 6:37pm 1747118235

If I was 20 again, I would move to Aussie to get a 12% EMPLOYER CONTRIBUTION into something the gov could not touch.

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 7:02pm 1747119736

20 in 2025?

I'd probably be doing remote work in Asia or South America.

Income arbitrage, and low living costs.

Save more than 12%

Have way more fun

by Let me be Frank | 13th May 25, 8:38pm 1747125523

When push comes to shove there is nothing (a) government cannot touch.

by Kate | 13th May 25, 6:49pm 1747118947

Yes.

Because people always living paycheck to paycheck cannot be frugal - they spend everything they earn just keeping their head above water.

Turn in the high horse, Yvil, for a new, more grounded model.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 7:22pm 1747120965

from the AI

The National Party has a few key policies regarding NZ Super. They intend to maintain the NZ Super age at 65 until 2044, after which it will be gradually increased to 67, but this change will not affect anyone born before 1979. They also plan to keep NZ Super linked to 66% of average after-tax incomes, ensuring it rises annually, and propose a Back Pocket Boost tax relief plan to further increase after-tax wages and subsequently, NZ Super payments. Finally, they have committed to continuing contributions to the NZ Super Fund.

The Labour Party has publicly stated its commitment to keeping the New Zealand Superannuation (NZ Super) age at 65. They have also confirmed they would continue making contributions to the NZ Super Fund. Additionally, Labour has stated it will not change the superannuation age if re-elected, according to RNZ.

Yes we are screwed, the people do not want to hear the truth and both sides hear that the people want to be feed BS about NZ Supers affordability... the young should plan accordingly.

Cam Baggrie (one of NZ smartest and most practical economists) has much to say about this space.

by Foxglove. | 13th May 25, 7:29pm 1747121340

Unfortunately the argument tends to get distorted. For example most of us those grew up reading of the unfortunate described by such as Dickens or accounts of immigrants in New York’s Hell’s Kitchen for instance, accept and understand that plight still exists in modern times, and especially of those thus inflicted by circumstances beyond their control. On the other side though we have strident advocacy, mostly from the left side of politics, that every recipient of welfare is fully deserving, there is neither a rort nor a malingerer amongst it all, and all of them are totally deprived and short paid.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 9:30pm 1747128618

Superannuation is one of my biggest fears for NZs future. Has been some great conversation here tonight which mainly stayed on track. We should be debating this in public, but I think NZ politics has turned to feral. No party wants to touch it for fear of losing votes.

They do not want us to have an opinion...

by Pa1nter | 13th May 25, 9:36pm 1747128966

That's the problem with democracy.

Highlighting severe structural issues is going to be unpopular with decent chunks of the voter base.

by Kate | 13th May 25, 9:42pm 1747129374

Someone should start a new political party called, 20-somethings. Perhaps they'd be prepared to deal with it.

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 9:57pm 1747130254

The hard lifting has been considered, its just neither National or Labour want anything to do with it

The ACT Party's policy on New Zealand Superannuation focuses on gradually increasing the eligibility age, currently at 65, to 67, with further adjustments based on life expectancy. They argue that this is necessary to make the universal superannuation system more sustainable and affordable for taxpayers.

Here's a more detailed look at the ACT Party's stance:

Gradual Increase in Eligibility Age:

The ACT Party proposes a gradual increase in the superannuation age to 67, with the rate of two months per year starting from 2023.
Once the age of 67 is reached, it would be indexed to life expectancy, ensuring each generation receives the same period of superannuation as previous generations.

Sustainability and Affordability:

The ACT Party believes the current universal superannuation system is unsustainable and too expensive for taxpayers.
They argue that the gradual increase in the eligibility age will save New Zealand taxpayers $16.02 billion over the next 12 financial years.

by rastus | 14th May 25, 8:42am 1747168950

TOP was the vehicle for that age group, but the 20s ignored them.

by blobbles | 13th May 25, 9:32pm 1747128740

Yvil doesn't understand how super is funded, no surprise there...

by blobbles | 13th May 25, 9:39pm 1747129174

I believe the numbers are quite staggering... even Nicola Willis said it today in her speech:

In 2000, there were about 6.5 people of working age (15 and over) for every superannuitant. Today there are about 4.7 people of working age for every superannuitant. By 2050 there are expected to only be about 3.6 people of working age for every superannuitant.

At the same time, superannuation costs are increasing both in dollar terms and as a proportion of GDP. Gross expenditure on super in 2000 was $5.1 billion or 4.4 per cent of GDP. By 2050 it is expected to be $71.7 billion or 6.5 per cent of GDP.

This leaping cost will play out in this year’s Budget. New Zealand Superannuation costs will rise from $23.2 billion this year to $29.0 billion in 2028/29.

by Kate | 13th May 25, 9:45pm 1747129501

And so she intends to address it, how?

by Midnight Singer | 13th May 25, 9:47pm 1747129677

By employing less public servants? And/or paying them less?

Just a guess!

by IT GUY | 13th May 25, 10:02pm 1747130560

She will say by making the pie grow... growth growth growth... then we all all get a bigger slice of pie.

There is no way in hell in low productive NZ that you are going to see that pie grow!

Tariffs , less gloablisation, China vs USA demograhics..., limits to growth, no the pie is going to get eaton by inflation, not superannuants.

its a BS answer and there is no pie B if it does not work

by rastus | 14th May 25, 8:36am 1747168599

Means test super!

Yeah..like catch ma and pa average who don't have access to smart lawyers, accountants and overseas connections.

Do it the smart way and bring in a UBI