Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today (although we have updated the TD rates for China Construction Bank which we missed a few days ago). All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SPARE CAPACITY AS SKILL LEAKS AWAY
Building industry is operating at less than two thirds of capacity as the construction slump bites harder. They are still doing it tough but firms worry about a shortage of skilled staff and apprentices when things pick up again.
SOLID DAIRY AUCTION
The overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%. WMP demand was bolstered by good China buying.
CHEAPER POWER? BETTER BUY-BACK RATES?
The Electricity Authority has today released its reform plans for how large electricity retailer operate, how they price their plans, and how much they need to pay to buy back electricity from rooftop solar during peak periods. Just for reference, here is how the major gentailer shares changed today; Meridian, up +0.6%. Genesis, up +0.9%, Mercury, down -1.1%%, Contact, up +0.3%. Today's Electricity Authority decisions haven't spooked investors. (The first three are 51% government owned.)
NZX50 RISES TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.6% so far today, now unchanged over the past week. It is now down -3.0% since the start of the year although up +4.6% from this time last year. Gains today are led by Infratil, Vista, Mainfreight & Tower. The declines are led by Tourism Holdings, Oceania, Fletcher and Channel Infrastructure
BRAVE TALK
New Zealand should ‘destroy’ the idea that the economy is linked to house price growth. That's the talk from senior government minister Chris Bishop who says we must decouple house prices from economic growth. It's been a very long time since any politician has been brave enough to say that out loud, from either major party.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed at the short end marginally firmer at the longer durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.27% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +1 bp at 4.40%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.63% and was up +5 bps at 4.61% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.48%
EQUITIES MIXED IN TIGHT RANGES
The local equity market is up +0.6% in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.8% in Wednesday afternoon trade on imminent revealing of US tariffs on them. Tokyo is down a mere -0.1% in early trade today. Hong Kong is up +0.3% at its open while Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has also opened up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session lower by -0.4%.
OIL STEADIES
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just under US$67/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is now at NZ$58/NZU but trade only on a tiny trade. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$23/oz to US$3324/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down a net -30 bps from this time yesterday at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at 67.2.
BITCOIN SOFTENS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$117,405 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, now at just on +/-1.0%.
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3 Comments
Peter Schiff:
"They are getting yippy in Japan. The 10-year JGB yield just hit 1.6% for the first time since 2007. Once it breaks above 2%, look out — global yields could spike as JGBs collapse and the yen carry trade unravels. In 1990, the yield on the 10-year JGB was over 8%"
Talk of the carry trade potentially unwinding gets little reaction among my circles. I think many believe it's little more than a Chicken Little story.
The West putting the Global South in their place. The rich nations showing who wears the pants as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has issued a direct warning to China, India, and Brazil about the severe economic consequences they could face should they continue trading with Russia - specifically oil and gas - if the Kremlin does not engage seriously in peace negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict.
This declaration makes clear that secondary sanctions, including tariffs of up to 100%, are on the table against those countries and entities that "prop up Putin’s war machine" by continuing significant economic relations with Russia.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/nato-chief-warns-india-china-braz…
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