Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the US has imposed a new 10% tariff on importing gold bars, specifically targeting Switzerland and will no doubt apply to others as well. Previously these were imports tariff-free. It was an unexpected reclassification probably designed to bolster crypto prices at the expense of precious metals.
More globally, the July world food price index inched higher, but that masks record higher prices for meat proteins. And those were driven by beef and sheep prices. Dairy prices eased back from June but only slightly and they remain very near record levels.
Canada released its July labour market report overnight showing 1.6 mln people unemployed for a jobless rate of 6.9%. But the number of people employed fell by -40,800, with a drop of -51,000 in full-time jobs and a rise of +10,000 in part-time jobs. The decline was mostly among 15-24 year olds. Markets had expected overall employment to rise by +13,000.
In Japan, June data for household spending rose +1.3% from the same month a year ago, down sharply from a +4.7% increase in May. Forecasts were for a +2.6% rise. Households were worried about the impact of US tariffs and persistent inflation on consumer activity. On a monthly basis, spending plunged -5.2% in June from May, reversing May’s +4.6% rise and undershooting expectations of a -3% correction.
And staying with Japan, they agreed with the US on a 15% "reciprocal" tariff. But Trump issued an executive order to charge 25% in a pique of retribution for slights no-one can quite understand. The Japanese have called them out on it, insisting they honour the negotiated deal. Now Bessent and Lutnick have agreed to not only correct the "administrative mistake" but refund the capricious tariff charges. The Japanese are back with the same deal as the EU has.
Taiwan's export performance continues to astound. Exports from the island nation surged +42% in July from a year ago to a record US$56.7 bln, following the +34% increase in June. They were expecting 'only' a +29% rise on this basis. by any measure this strength is quite remarkable. It is all built on electronics. Taiwanese imports were up +21% on the same basis.
In the US the appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a temporary vacancy as a board member of the US Federal Reserve adds in a protectionist sceptic to the voting mix. He is no fan of central bank independence. But oddly he has railed against the 'revolving door' of its members moving between Treasury positions and the Fed governorships. He has now become exhibit A.
In Australia, a former KPMG employee, who is not a registered tax professional, is alleged to have orchestrated a large-scale tax fraud. This was done through lodging false tax returns for clients of the consulting firm and then redirecting the refunds into his personal bank account.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +4 bps from yesterday and up +7 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is firmer at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at -10 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is flatter at -8 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.27% and up +2 bps from yesterday, and up +5 bps for the week. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.70%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just under 4.43% and down -1 bp, down -13 bps for the week.
Wall Street is stronger today, up +0.8% from yesterday on the S&P500 and a +1.9% weekly rise. Overnight, European markets little-changed with only Paris showing movement, up +0.4%. That gave them a +2.1% weekly rise which was topped by Frankfurt's +2.7% rise. For the week London only managed +0.3%. Tokyo ended its Friday session up another +1.9% to end its week up +4.2%. Hong Kong was down -0.9% on Friday for a +1.8% weekly gain. Shanghai was down -0.1% for a +2.5% weekly rise. Singapore fell -0.4% on Friday. The ASX200 closed its Friday session down -0.3% to end the week up +1.7%. And the NZX50 ended Friday down -0.3% and a +0.9% weekly gain.
The Fear & Greed index has moved back to the 'greed' zone from last week's 'neutral' zone.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,395/oz, up US$4 from yesterday. But that has built to a +US$48 gain for the week, or up +1.4%. The implications of the new US tariff ruling isn't yet reflected in the New York gold price. That may come later. Meanwhile the Whitehouse is mulling whether it will back off given the confusion it generated.
American oil prices have slipped back again, only slightly though to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price unchanged at just over US$66.50/bbl. These are more than -US$3 lower than week-ago levels.
The Kiwi dollar is at 59.6 USc and up another +10 bps from yesterday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, unchanged from yesterday and up +20 bps from this time last week.
The bitcoin price started today at US$116,846 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. And that is up +3.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.7%.
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23 Comments
My cows are looking nervous. Cost $600 each a year ago, worth about $1750 now, but need another year...
Maybe beef will be $10 a kg schedule by then?
Paywalled article
The Prime Minister’s enthusiastic but largely scattergun pursuit of economic growth in 2025 looks to have failed, even though there’s four months of the year still to play out. Does anyone really reckon those four months will make a difference?
I tend to agree, no seeds planted by National are going to produce green shoots into summer, we will get to Xmas BBQs discussing cost of living, butter prices, steak prices, and how hard it is to get a job. Its going to be a hard choice for many who they vote for next election. I do not think hippie can win but it could get close with new Labour leadership team at the top. Fresh faces fresh ideas.
But it won’t just be, if it should even occur, a new Labour team. Such a government will need to accommodate the Greens & TPM in a formal government. That is seated in cabinet. Up until now the electorate has seen fit to preclude the former and it is not looking likely to favour the latter any more either. There has been a tendency for National in government to fall into a state of complacency, but mostly the third term. However this one, try as they might, is already looking a bit like that. It may be that they are putting a lot of weight on the same perception of the opposition make up, as above? If so they need a kick in the pants. You don’t run governments or win elections based on what the opposition may or may not be.
Remember how that farmers voted for Labour to keep the Greens out a cycle back. Its very hard to predict how people will vote in outlier election cycles, and this is one of them. When things are going well people want to stay on the track, but getting a crash train back on track is much harder. Many people who would have voted for NAct have left, While they say immigration is 25k in reality 80k left and 105k replaced them (approx numbers) . Its not 100% certain how these immigrants will vote, they are generally not rich landlords collecting interest deductibility on their rentals. Many may lean left.
The picture I am trying to paint is not based on the current faces. If Labour replace their leadership team and the new leaders start talking plans of a credible turnaround then the game changes, TPM many not be necessary, and Labour have shown they can keep the Greens on track before.
I am not a left voter. I am just saying that the current situation looks lost for the left, but they know that themselves and will be putting together a plan. its much easier to sell a plan to voters then make one work, as NAct has found out. The left can attack Nationals failures, while promising lots of hope.... Makes for a very interest election outcome.
IMHO Nact only hope is to start to act now and roll out change, NZCE is a good start, as is the promised new supermarket. But kiwis are being bleed to death by the banks, not the surper markets, what is there plan here? how do we generate jobs outside Ponzi?
how do we stop young families leaving for Aussie?
If they can deliever a few real changes they can demonstrate hope and that may just be enough to get a second term. Saying hope is coming it was just to hard this term will not win votes.
"...Labour have shown they can keep the Greens on track before."
But not their embedded Maori caucus (W.Jackson etc)
Helon did, hence the birth of TPM
Jacinda could not, I have believed for some time that the Labour Party may fracture because of this, union influences were somewhat sidelined when there man Andrew Little became unelectable and Jacinda was handed the prise.
This period is probably a distraction unions will force the vote to get there man as leader
union leaders represent workers probably a good focus point for Labour as no one really knows what they stand for right now
It was fairly obvious that the Maori caucus within Labour were increasingly becoming dominant. It got far worse too, once WP & NZF were no longer in coalition.Hence the middle finger to PM Ardern and cabinet itself with the devious entrenchment of the three waters legislation. Yes the electorate will need to weigh that history up together with the prospect of that faction combining with similar elements in the Greens, and likely as well TPM, to form a bloc well capable of holding the government to ransom.
The economy will be front of mind, however the parents chats in the schoolyard this week show a lot of support and relief about the new curriculum and even more scorn at the fallout with the shadow minister not showing up to have her say, then trying to justify it, and her boss lettering her off the hook.
The teachers in my family say is it generally viewed well by teachers, who usually vote left.
This will be a big win for national and if labour campaign on scrapping it they might find themselves quite unpopular. Erica Sandford has done well.
She has but making a plan is the easy bit executing the plan is harder.
Health is being reconstructed , but these are cost centers, what feels missing is a plan to create job's.
I expect some public private announcements re rebuilding hospital buildings coming up.
the sale of TV3 for $1 highlights the issues of selling so called state assets.
An elephant in the room , seem to be many, is energy policy. The difference between Nact and greens is so massive there is no cross bench support, new power plants take way longer then an NZ government seems to last hence reluctance to invest in case the landscape changes.
we simply must solve this
Taiwan's export performance continues to astound. Exports from the island nation surged +42% in July from a year ago to a record US$56.7 bln, following the +34% increase in June. ...It is all built on electronics.
DC - you don't suspect China is rerouting exports through Taiwan to avoid tariffs? They had a lot of electronic manufacturing capacity sitting under tarps waiting for the right moment?
Does NZ actually do well when farmers do well? Stuff this morning.
What a shallow, biased, piece of "investigative' reporting. Stuff doesn't allow comments on this one. Hence addressing it here.
First point: are farmers doing well?
Doing well is a qualitative, relative, conclusion. Farming is made up of 47,000+ individual businesses. Each with its own unique demographic, debt, risk and structural profile. Debt in agricultural businesses is high.The ag sector has faced the highest inflationary pressures of any productive sector. Doing well at the individual farm business level is relative.....to last year, to 10 year averages... doing better than last year feels a heck of a lot better than not doing as good. Can that be accurately described as agriculture doing well? No, it's all relative and one needs to take a good look at a statistically reliable analysis of individual farm businesses to draw any reliable conclusion. MPI or more historically accurate MAF used to do that via the annual MAF Farm Monitoring Report. All STUFF has done is look at grossed up export earnings $s, not the impact of returns at farm gate.
Point 2: with agriculture facing inflation at a rate approaching 1.5x the national inflation figure, where has that additional farm level cost gone to?
That is farm business expenditure that has gone to off farm service providers. Arguably services sucking off the back tit of farming. Example...I take my quad bike (a quintessentially agriculture tool) in for servicing at the local dealership and get a bill of $900 - it's only got 600 hous on the clock. I take my reasonably similar value zero turn mower (a much less agricultural tool) in for service at the dealership and I get a bill of $250. I suggest that the difference in cost somewhat reflects that the perception of farmers doing 'well' empowers the quad bike dealership to ramp up costs, while the mower dealership, dealing with a greater urban clientele that is perceived as not doing well, can't or doesn't gouge on the costs front.
The age old cliche definition of a farmer is as true today as when first written: Farmer - buys retail, sells wholesale and pays the cartage both ways.
Conclusion
Doing well is a qualitative, relative, term. Media like STUFF and the green political movement chose to focus analysis on headline, aggregated export earnings, and foment division between rural and urban. They do the 47,000+ NZ individual farming businesses a gross disservice by refusing to analyse and report on what is actually transpiring at the individual farm business gate.
Yeah it's interesting Lou, to me it only feels like our farming business has been allowed to surface for a breath of air. Lets hope we can stay up for awhile.
That's why we ditched quad bikes and just use motor bikes on our dairy farm. They just cost so much to run and buy.
Or ditch m-bikes and quads and get an old AWD rav4 or Honda crv, far cheaper and better than side by side. depends how steep your land
It just gets too wet for a 4x4 they are too heavy , a dirt bike is ok in the wet. I still love my quad and trailer for moving posts etc out back, still in winter there are lots of places I will not try to take it that I would a dirt bike. But yeah the servicing is steep. I service my own JD ride on. I have found the zero turns nothing but trouble.
The missus needs the quad to rake the arena, first world problems.
Great post LB. Thanks.
Get rid of some of the hangers on, farm consultants (use chatgpt) and waste of money Halter collars
No doubt wilco will be along saying how well he's doing :)
Might be tough or not tough as a farmer but without them New Zealand would be totally screwed. They keep us afloat.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,395/oz, up US$4 from yesterday. But that has built to a +US$48 gain for the week, or up +1.4%. The implications of the new US tariff ruling isn't yet reflected in the New York gold price. That may come later. Meanwhile the Whitehouse is mulling whether it will back off given the confusion it generated.
What's going on is quite outrageous. UBS has dropped a warning: tariffs on large gold bars could spark serious funding stress in global bullion markets.
Exchange for Physical or EFPs are a swap between futures and physical metal (and vice versa). Standard practice in global bullion trade. Traders often run “short EFP” positions: – sell futures contracts – commit to deliver physical gold later (often in London) But now, tariffs make that delivery into the U.S. more expensive. Many traders may have to unwind these short EFPs instead.
UBS warns this could cause a liquidity crunch -especially in London, the global hub for physical gold. Higher costs → mass closeouts → funding stress → tighter credit conditions.
https://investinglive.com/Education/ubs-has-warned-that-us-tariffs-on-l…
IMHO they will back out the tariff on 1kg bars.
Once the big guy has closed out his long futures position.
Seeing that Kieran McAnulty is the Labour rep for Infrastructure and Housing, he is very well placed to take over Labour leadership and not rock the boat on future energy and infrastructure planning fro public private partnerships.
If I was the hipster I would be looking over my back. Watching small groups stop talking as you approach etc.
That said as any general would comment, the advantage of surprise is handy in any first strike against NAct, so his takeover may well occur just inside the 3 month limit when the caucus can vote without membership issues, if the unions have the number on the inside. That would have to involve cutting some deal with the Maori caucus in Labour.
Harvard Management Company (HMC), the entity overseeing Harvard University's $53.2 billion endowment, reported holding 1,906,000 shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as of June 30, 2025. This stake was valued at approximately $116.7 million according to filings with the SEC.
The IBIT position ranks as Harvard's fifth-largest equity holding, surpassed only by Microsoft, Amazon, Booking Holdings, and Meta, and exceeds its allocation to major assets like SPDR Gold Trust ($102 million) and Alphabet.
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1025858-20250…
‘A sexual assault almost every 8 minutes’: Uber’s hidden problem
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/a-sexual-assault-every-8-minute…
About 75 per cent of the 400,181 reports were “less serious,” such as making comments about someone’s appearance, flirting or using explicit language, Nilles said. The reports had not been audited by the company and could include incorrect or fraudulent reports submitted by people trying to get a refund, she added.
“I say, if you want millions to believe you care, you have to show them you genuinely care about ‘the one’.”
— Tracey Breeden, former head of women’s safety at Uber
My girls call us before getting in an Uber especially at 3am in NZ... they do not trust the NZ drivers, we track things via life 360. I am not implying it was worse with taxi's just saying take care out there and use digital protection tools.
Don't worry, that could be a problem of the past. Marcus Brownlee reviews both Waymo and Tesla self driving vehicles
https://youtu.be/We2ZD0-IXPM?si=5uCiQHdOiUAHDIk_
As you can see, Tesla is a leader in self driving. Except the part where there's no human sitting in the driver's seat.......
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