Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news parts of the world's economy is struggling after a never ending series of American policy blunders. Other parts are going their own worrying way.
Analysts were right to think the low forecast of a +75,000 rise in US non-farm jobs was optimistic. In fact they came in at +22,000 for August. June data was revised down by -27,000 and the change for July was revised up by +6,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21K lower than previously reported. Trump's firing of the agency that reports this data isn't changing the sharp trend lower. Trump now has to own this trend.
In fact, the total jobs added in May, June, July and August in 2025 is about the same as was added in August 2024 alone. For them its a concerning trajectory but it can all be traced to junk public policy.
Worse, the data shows that manufacturing jobs fell -12,000 in August with clearly no sign of factory jobs reshoring.
If we look at the unadjusted data for civilian employment - which accounts for more than just those on employer payrolls, the July to August change was a -511,000 reduction. It's a time when the self employed are really struggling.
All this downbeat data is reflected in the financial markets today. Wall Street is down -0.5%, bond yields fell sharply again, and the USD weakened. The pall spread to Europe too where they are digesting the latest US strategic insult.
The chance of a rate cut by the Fed has now become a certainty in financial market pricing as the central bank is scrambling to contain the growing fiscal mess which looks like it is going to be much larger than feared, and much sooner. A full -25 bps rate cut is priced in for the mid-September meeting, and another before the end of the year. Trump will get his rate cuts because of his actions to tank the US economy. But there are voting members who still insist that inflation should be contained before they cut. The next US CPI data is due in a week and the current +2.7% inflation rate is widely expected to rise to 2.9% and a core rate back over 3.0% which emphasises the risks stagflationary effects are hurting the world's largest economy.
It was no better in Canada where payroll employment fell -65,500 in August from July largely due to a sharp fall in part-time employment (-59,700). The trade shock with the US is getting the blame here too.
In Canada they watch the Ivey PMI closely and that shifted from a modest expansion in July to none in August. But at least it wasn't contracting. Consistent with their official jobs data, the employment sub-component of this PMI was contracting.
A -25 bps rate cut there is also priced in before the end of 2025. Canadian August inflation is expected to come in little-changed at 1.7% on September 16, 2025.
The Canadian government is taking an activist approach to protecting their economy with a major support announcement on Friday.
Data out across the Pacific was far more encouraging. Singapore said its retail activity expanded far more than expected in July, and is now up +4.1% from June, up +4.8% from a year ago. It has been on a rising trend for almost all of 2025.
In Australia, extended June quarter labour market data shows that the number of total jobs increased +0.3% to 16.3 million. Filled jobs rose +0.2% to 16.0 million where secondary jobs decreased -1.2% to 1.0 million and multiple job-holders decreased -1.3% to 948,900. Hours worked increased +0.3% to 6.0 billion hours in the quarter
And staying in Australia, they have progressed legislation that will bring digital wallets, cash distribution services, buy now, pay later schemes and other emerging payment methods directly within the oversight of the regulatory agencies who oversee debt products. It will no longer be a grey area. And it seems likely that will trigger similar moves here otherwise we will be victimised by regulatory arbitrage.
The FAO global food price monitoring shows that in August overall prices were stable and just marginally higher than where they ended 2024. Dairy prices look like they have peaked but meat prices are still rising driven by beef and sheep meats.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, down another -8 bps from yesterday at this time.. That makes the weekly backslide -14 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +58 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -7 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now inverted -13 bps in a sharpish turn. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.77%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.31% and down -5 bps from yesterday but up +3 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just under 4.43%, down -3 bps from Friday, up a net +4 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street is lower in Friday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3% to be down -0.1% for the week. Overnight, European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's -0.7% fall back and London's -0.1% dip. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up +1.0% on Friday and up +1.6% for the week. Hong Kong closed up +1.4% for a -0.4% weekly loss, and Shanghai closed up +1.2% on Friday for a -1.5% weekly loss. Singapore ended its session up +0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Friday up +0.5% to be down a net -0.9% for the week. But the NZX rose +0.7% on Friday to lock in a weekly +2.3% gain and easily the best of the markets we follow.
The Fear & Greed index has now shifted back to the 'neutral' zone from the 'greed' zone last week. And speaking of greed, the Tesla board has agreed to award Elon Musk almost a US$1 tln bonus if Tesla meets targets over a ten year period.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,593/oz, up +US$49 from yesterday and a new record high. That is up +US$151 from a week ago and a sharp +4.4% risk aversion rise for the week. Silver is firmish too, but not like gold.
American oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$62/bbl on the struggling US domestic prospects with the international Brent price equally softer just on US$65.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.9 USc and up +50 bps from yesterday, down just -10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.3, up +20 bps from yesterday but down a net -20 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,182 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday, up a net +2.5% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.
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30 Comments
Trump's crackdown on illegals is likely to have significant negative consequences for those US industries dependent on cheap (exploited) illegal migrant labour.
Overnight Federal officers raided a large Hyundai plant in Georgia arresting 475 people who were either in the USA illegally or had visa problems (the majority of who are Koreans) in the largest sweep so far in Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration.
California’s horticultural Central Valley must be at risk as it is dependent on annual return migrant labour from Mexico and the vast majority are undocumented illegals.
These positions are unlikely to be filled by Americans prepared to work at the previous expoitive wage rates.
Koreans are generally excellent, hard working people. Their diligence and efficiency won't be easily replaceable.
As opposed to?
Are they good at paperwork?
I though the ole "who will pick cotton" meme died out with the Democrats after the Civil War. Guess not.
No need for the brackets for exploited. It is in fact, the dominant factor. It’s not new and it’s not going to be fixed in a hurry. Along with corruption, crime, wastage, it is an American industry within itself. Deeply entrenched and running concurrently, prostitution, extortion and every illicit drug supply imaginable. What was once found in the like of New York’s Hells Kitchen, is now easily found coast to coast, nationwide.
Exploited workers should bear some of the blame.
Let them eat cake
Overstaying, working for cash, fake credentials, not paying tax, bogus employment contracts, non-existent jobs, deception, that sort of thing. Not to mention undercutting legitimate workers, destroying trust and undermining the foundations of Western Civilization.
It’s really quite extraordinary. To enter the USA illegally you obviously break the law, become a criminal. That is a fact that is undeniable yet some lawmakers, both in Congress and the Senate, pretend that fact doesn’t exist and instead all the subject illegals are nothing but persecuted refugees with every justification to claim asylum. This administration is doing nothing other than enforce the nation’s basic law and dismantle the rort, the exploitation and the counterproductive force of illegal labour.
"...some lawmakers, both in Congress and the Senate, pretend that fact doesn’t exist and instead all the subject illegals are nothing but persecuted refugees with every justification to claim asylum"
In NZ that would be lawmakers, govt bureaucrats, media, academics, politicicians across Greens, Labour, TPM & more than a few Nats.
A recent example being this illegal overstayer & his kids who are all being supported by the dwindling numbers of NZs net taxpayers
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/570327/should-maori-born-over…
That is a difficult one. I'd vote for it being exceptional.
No need for the brackets for exploited.
All my woke mates say that there is no worker / migrant exploitation in Aotearoa compared to the U.S.
I thjnk they're wrong. One of the key reasons why we want migrations is for cheap labor.
They kind of agree with me about the cheap labour but don't think cheap labour and exploitation are the same. Reminds me of the same thinking as the Greens MP who owned the bike rental business.
Not only due to residency status.
The fundamental employment law difference is that USA has employment "at will" (of the employer) & the UK + Commonwealth eg NZ Australia etc have employment "as right" (of the employee).
This overwhelmingly employer favourable regime means that the USA economy is very responsive to economic factors, productive & market focused. It also means that employees are highly motivated to perform as their continued employment is primarily at the whim of the employer.
Yes, a huge difference in employment law. But not so sure it has the result/effect as you suggest (with respect to American citizen workers).
Kate, I acknowledge that you would know the USA much better than I, understanding that you're an ex citizen. My limited experience of USA working conditions was within a multinational so probably not the norm. For some reason the USA division also preferred to hire ex military people for middle management and specialist roles eg logistics, engineering,
Yes, ex-military are sought after (well years ago, that is - not so sure how good the training is these days).
My comment relates to skilled/tertiary educated workers of proven worth/value within private sector companies, as opposed to unskilled workers, who yes (you are right), get treated appallingly under US labour laws. Sadly, it's a 'fire at will' type attitude amongst many blue collar-type employers - no cause needed, no notice, no redundancy.
Trump's crackdown on illegals is likely to have significant negative consequences for those US industries dependent on cheap (exploited) illegal migrant labour.
The Trump admin is cleaning up the fraud in the U.S. migrant visa system. Loopholes in the US visa program have made it easy for foreign staffing and outsourcing firms to bring in high-skilled workers as a cheaper labour input. The Trump administration promised to protect American jobs. See Bloomie video below to understand how middlemen game the system at the expense of US workers.
Visa middlemen soon found ways to manipulate the lottery, giving them an advantage over sponsors seeking a specific worker for a specialized role. H-1B rules require applicants to have a “bona fide” job offer for each visa they seek. Yet staffing firms used webs of connected companies to submit multiple lottery registrations for the same applicants.
The US Citizenship and Immigration Services called this practice, known as “multiple registration,” fraudulent in a 2023 report and took steps to end it last year. A second strategy – flooding the lottery with thousands of interchangeable applicants – provides a major advantage for large outsourcing firms that tend to have vast overseas workforces."
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-h1b-visa-middlemen-cheap-labor-…
Looking at you TCS
“The Trump administration promised to protect American jobs”
Why would anyone think there is a finite number of jobs? The number of jobs is typically dependent on the size of the population.
There is a finite number of jobs in any one year, or two, but, you're right job numbers should go up. The issue is migrants gaming the system and exposing themselves to exploitation, as I pointed out above.
"FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2025 has been revised up by 35.6 million tonnes (1.2 percent) compared to the projection from July, driven by improved prospects for coarse grain crops. This latest revision reinforces the expectation of a record-high global cereal output in 2025, which is now anticipated at 2 961 million tonnes, 3.5 percent above the previous year’s level."
"The theory of Trumponomics is failing."
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-august-jobs-report
While i agree it will fail, it’s a bit early to make the call isn’t it?
Not really.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360815379/david-seymour-warns-most-dram…
“That is quite a significant uplift in the height of buildings allowed in suburban Parnell,” he told residents. “It’s probably the most dramatic increase anywhere in Auckland.”
Suburban Parnell? Parnell is literally the first suburb out from Auckland City, it’s hardly what you would call suburban.
If you want to live somewhere suburban, maybe choose a suburb that isn’t a short walk to Auckland CBD, there are plenty to choose from.
The suburbs with the most lawyers will avoid intensification, as will anywhere Water Care says no.
But we really want to avoid those high rise disasters like New Lynn has. They look like WGTN council housing.
Surely it does not have to look super ugly just because its cheap. 15 stories reminds me of UK housing estates, we haver to be real careful we do not end up with gang run vertical slums.
I think the intensification in Glen Inness has worked well, suggest doubters go for a drive around, its looking great and is walkable to train, which is 13min to CBD.
I suggest if we want to go 15 levels up why not build these along Kohi beach and in Takapuna, where people can actually enjoy the location. I wonder if these high rises will actually find buyers, CBD apartments have not been popular with owner occupiers vs investors.
No high-rise works on a solar-acre-per-head basis post fossil energy.
Compression was a result of compressed (low entropy) energy, supplying everything and removing everything.
For a bit of a chuckle, Mark Zuckerberg on a "hot mic" - oops!
https://www.shacknews.com/article/145829/mark-zuckerberg-trump-investme…
So, it's not only Trump who pulls numbers out of thin air, but the billionaire buds are also playing along.
The US is so, so, so stuffed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raaj63WkGS0
Think about it
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