US factory jobs shrink as overall labour market cools; US inflation stays high; Canada turns active in economic defense; global food prices stable; UST 10yr at 4.09%; gold jumps to new ATH, oil retreats further; NZ$1 = 58.9 USc; TWI-5 = 66.3

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news parts of the world's economy is struggling after a never ending series of American policy blunders. Other parts are going their own worrying way.

Analysts were right to think the low forecast of a +75,000 rise in US non-farm jobs was optimistic. In fact they came in at +22,000 for August. June data was revised down by -27,000 and the change for July was revised up by +6,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21K lower than previously reported. Trump's firing of the agency that reports this data isn't changing the sharp trend lower. Trump now has to own this trend.

In fact, the total jobs added in May, June, July and August in 2025 is about the same as was added in August 2024 alone. For them its a concerning trajectory but it can all be traced to junk public policy.

Worse, the data shows that manufacturing jobs fell -12,000 in August with clearly no sign of factory jobs reshoring.

If we look at the unadjusted data for civilian employment - which accounts for more than just those on employer payrolls, the July to August change was a -511,000 reduction. It's a time when the self employed are really struggling.

All this downbeat data is reflected in the financial markets today. Wall Street is down -0.5%, bond yields fell sharply again, and the USD weakened. The pall spread to Europe too where they are digesting the latest US strategic insult.

The chance of a rate cut by the Fed has now become a certainty in financial market pricing as the central bank is scrambling to contain the growing fiscal mess which looks like it is going to be much larger than feared, and much sooner. A full -25 bps rate cut is priced in for the mid-September meeting, and another before the end of the year. Trump will get his rate cuts because of his actions to tank the US economy. But there are voting members who still insist that inflation should be contained before they cut. The next US CPI data is due in a week and the current +2.7% inflation rate is widely expected to rise to 2.9% and a core rate back over 3.0% which emphasises the risks stagflationary effects are hurting the world's largest economy.

It was no better in Canada where payroll employment fell -65,500 in August from July largely due to a sharp fall in part-time employment (-59,700). The trade shock with the US is getting the blame here too.

In Canada they watch the Ivey PMI closely and that shifted from a modest expansion in July to none in August. But at least it wasn't contracting. Consistent with their official jobs data, the employment sub-component of this PMI was contracting.

A -25 bps rate cut there is also priced in before the end of 2025. Canadian August inflation is expected to come in little-changed at 1.7% on September 16, 2025.

The Canadian government is taking an activist approach to protecting their economy with a major support announcement on Friday.

Data out across the Pacific was far more encouraging. Singapore said its retail activity expanded far more than expected in July, and is now up +4.1% from June, up +4.8% from a year ago. It has been on a rising trend for almost all of 2025.

In Australia, extended June quarter labour market data shows that the number of total jobs increased +0.3% to 16.3 million. Filled jobs rose +0.2% to 16.0 million where secondary jobs decreased -1.2% to 1.0 million and multiple job-holders decreased -1.3% to 948,900. Hours worked increased +0.3% to 6.0 billion hours in the quarter

And staying in Australia, they have progressed legislation that will bring digital wallets, cash distribution services, buy now, pay later schemes and other emerging payment methods directly within the oversight of the regulatory agencies who oversee debt products. It will no longer be a grey area. And it seems likely that will trigger similar moves here otherwise we will be victimised by regulatory arbitrage.

The FAO global food price monitoring shows that in August overall prices were stable and just marginally higher than where they ended 2024. Dairy prices look like they have peaked but meat prices are still rising driven by beef and sheep meats.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, down another -8 bps from yesterday at this time.. That makes the weekly backslide -14 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +58 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -7 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now inverted -13 bps in a sharpish turn. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.77%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.31% and down -5 bps from yesterday but up +3 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just under 4.43%, down -3 bps from Friday, up a net +4 bps from a week ago.

Wall Street is lower in Friday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3% to be down -0.1% for the week. Overnight, European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's -0.7% fall back and London's -0.1% dip. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up +1.0% on Friday and up +1.6% for the week. Hong Kong closed up +1.4% for a -0.4% weekly loss, and Shanghai closed up +1.2% on Friday for a -1.5% weekly loss. Singapore ended its session up +0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Friday up +0.5% to be down a net -0.9% for the week. But the NZX rose +0.7% on Friday to lock in a weekly +2.3% gain and easily the best of the markets we follow.

The Fear & Greed index has now shifted back to the 'neutral' zone from the 'greed' zone last week. And speaking of greed, the Tesla board has agreed to award Elon Musk almost a US$1 tln bonus if Tesla meets targets over a ten year period.

The price of gold will start today at US$3,593/oz, up +US$49 from yesterday and a new record high. That is up +US$151 from a week ago and a sharp +4.4% risk aversion rise for the week. Silver is firmish too, but not like gold.

American oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$62/bbl on the struggling US domestic prospects with the international Brent price equally softer just on US$65.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.9 USc and up +50 bps from yesterday, down just -10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.3, up +20 bps from yesterday but down a net -20 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,182 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday, up a net +2.5% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».