Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that rather than understating US jobs growth - which got her fired - the stats agency reporting labour market data overstated Trump's jobs growth, and by some margin.
But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction earlier today for both SMP and WMP, and while prices dipped as expected, they didn't dip as much as the derivatives markets had signaled. WMP was down just -0.2% from the full auction the prior week, SMP was down -0.6%. However the firming NZD resulted in about a -1.5% fall in NZD terms.
In the US, small business NFIB sentiment survey for August reported stable conditions with some issues easing, some tightening.
There was a US Treasury 3yr bond auction earlier today that was well supported but less well than the prior equivalent event a month ago. It resulted in a median yield of 3.45%, down sharply from the 3.61% at that prior equivalent event. The outsized shift down likely reflects bond investor risk aversion.
Although it is just a statistical adjustment, updated data shows the US economy added -911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than initially reported - the largest downward revision since at least 2000. This is a -0.6% adjustment, far more that the average change of +0.2% in total nonfarm employment over the past decade. Nearly all sectors added fewer jobs than initially estimated.
If the US Fed cuts rates next week to bolster their slowing economy, it will likely signal that their are changing their inflation goal from 2% to 3%, and prepared to accept stagflation over stagnation. The risk is they get both.
Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders were up +8.1% in August from a year ago, largely due to a +12% surge in export orders. Export orders made up almost three quarters of this industry's order book in August.
And Taiwan kept up its amazing record of export growth in August. They jumped more than +34% from a year ago and outperforming market expectations of +22% growth.
In Russia, their Federal Treasury reported another deep deficit in August, the second in a row and the first time ever of back-to-back deficits exceeding -1.9% of GDP.
In Australia, ANZ Group's new broom CEO Nuno Matos has kicked off a change program at the four-pillar bank with plans to shed 3,500 Australian staff.
The Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey slipped on darker views about the economic outlook and less confidence about getting any more rate cuts from the RBA - because inflation is still 'too high'. Analysts had expected this survey to possibly break into net optimism in September, but it was not to be.
Meanwhile the August NAB business confidence report shows it fell a minor 3 points, following four consecutive months of improving sentiment and leaves confidence also close to long run average levels
The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.07%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -8 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now inverted -9 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.79%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.30% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.34%, down -4 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is marginally firmer with the S&P500 up +0.2%. Overnight, European markets closed +0.2% firmer as well, except Frankfurt fell -0.4%. Yesterday Tokyo also fell -0.4%, Hong Kong was up +1.2, but Shanghai fell -0.5%. Singapore closed down -0.3%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session down -0.6%. And the NZX50 fell -0.2% on the day.
The price of gold will start today at a new high at US$3,641/oz, up +US$9 from yesterday.
American oil prices are marginally firmer, at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price is +50 USc firmer at just on US$66.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.3 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,080 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at just under +/- 1.1%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
22 Comments
Although it is just a statistical adjustment, updated data shows the US economy added -911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than initially reported - the largest downward revision since at least 2000. This is a -0.6% adjustment, far more that the average change of +0.2% in total nonfarm employment over the past decade. Nearly all sectors added fewer jobs than initially estimated.
All going to plan for the lunatics in the Whitehouse I see.
There are several different takes on the jobs reporting.
Commenting on the "data" revision, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirms what we said, namely that today's revision "brings the Biden jobs overstatement to a staggering 1.5M. The truth: President Trump inherited a far worse economy than reported, and he’s right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates."
But VP JD Vance landed the crushing blow, saying that BLS data has become completely "useless" - something we have said since 2021 - adding that a change was necessary to restore confidence. We are all eagerly awaiting said change, which will need to be far more extensive than just a replacement of the commissioner.
I expect to see more official data called 'useless' over the next couple of years as data is manipulated to fit the Great Leader's narrative. The downward slide of the USA will accelerate.
To some extent they are probably happy for any story to knock Trump's downright creepy Epstein birthday letter from the headlines. Nothing like a bit of chaos in the Middle East to move the story down the page a little, I guess.
I doubt he would be calling the data useless if it was in his favour. Just like elections are only rigged if not in his favour.
Trump is so thin-skinned that he requires a show of loyalty even from what should be impartial numbers.
Hmm, 2 million jobs revised downwardly over the last 3 years of the Biden presidency, with about 1 million in his last year. I don't think they have overstated jobs for any president for this period of time ever.
Sounds like there could be an issue with their initial estimates. I'd support a technocratic approach of looking into this, tweaking models/data collection methods, and trying to improve things. I would not support an autocratic approach of putting in some yes-men who will supply the data the President wants.
Which do you think Trump is more likely to push for, given everything he has said about data in the past (be it economic, electoral etc)?
One thing I often wonder about Trumponomics - are the republicans committed to it after Trump is gone? If not, it seems like a lot of short term pain for no reason if it all gets reversed once he leaves.
USA politics seems quite different to here - more about the president and less about the party.
Yes. Well said.
"USA politics seems quite different to here - more about the president and less about the party. "
Only if one ignores the fact that the checks and balances inherent within the system have been neutered by a significant number of fellow travellers
So there were 51% fewer jobs in Biden's last year than reported? It made the BLS number worse than useless.
ANZ Australian redundancies....
What does the current distribution of walk-in branches look like in Oz? Similar to NZ 25 or 30 years ago?
Was the closure of walk-in branches in NZ an experiment for the ANZ (and the other 3)? To be replicated across the ditch?
If so, it will be interesting to watch the regulatory (and consumer) response. Oz regulators have demonstrated a propensity to doggedly protect perceived key sectors in the past, agriculture comes to mind. Will banking be considered similarly?
no aussie has same issue in remote towns but a much much stronger regulater.
This a a wholesale restructure, I always laugh when I see 1000 contractors will go, so all those projects will stop and eventually in 18 months time they hire similar back as they do not have the talent or headcount to hire directly. If they are working on things not strategic to goals, what the hell have the managers been doing allocating funding. I know all new CEOs piss on the priorities of past CEOs by saying how complex/unfocused etc the last priorities where but really?
His biggest problem is probably the higher grade Managers who control the fiefdoms and dictate the profit shares of new products etc, all to enhance there own departments profitibility with scant regard to ANZs goals vs competition.
I can remember three massive restructures at ANZ.
- Massive restructure (was it called one anz? ) mainly Aussie a rightsize with 2-3k staff gone
- The Agile restructure where everyone in Aussie tech had to reapply for a new agile job title
- Now this simplicity drive. They need to fire the managers whop created the complexity as well , think of the waste.
Firing people to simplify non-financial risk, clearly indicates out of control workers or incompetent managers unable to control staff. Risk line 1/2 clearly need a bullet if controls where not in place to mitigate these risks. Either they where not reporting true risk or Snr management was not listening.
Cultural risk is yet to be cleaned up, perhaps this is a night of the long knives, and he already has a good feel for those who are out of control in Markets and Retail. I guess the people who do burnouts at royal golf courses are worried.
CBA is valued at twice ANZ, he has a lot of work to do. No wonder he has to work Christmas day.
I suggest selling ANZ.AX
Sounds familiar.
"We have stopped investing in Britain. Our future investment will not be in the UK. There’s no question of that.
"The problem is that the UK has become one of the most unstable fiscal regimes in the world from a perspective of natural resources and energy.
The Ineos boss added that the US had a more stable tax regime and favourable energy security policies, which was why the firm had recently invested £3bn there.
He added: "For us, the future lies in other countries, mostly the United States. The United States has got a long track record. In the 1990s, it was producing 6.5 million barrels of oil a day and importing five million, but now it’s producing oil and gas equivalent to 13 million barrels a day and exporting. That’s proper energy security and a proper fiscal regime.
"The United States absolutely understands the importance of domestic supplies and how you can drive economic growth off the back of it, so that’s the place where we’ll be."
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/uk-billionaire-labour-energy-taxes-5HjdCk…
'That’s proper energy security and a proper fiscal regime.'
"The United States absolutely understands the importance of domestic supplies and how you can drive economic growth off the back of it, so that’s the place where we’ll be."
That's extraction of a finite resource. No more, no less.
So it's not 'energy security'; it's energy insecurity guaranteed. And growth on a back of a depleting resource? A falsehood of the first order.
Funny how so many fall for it, though. We won't see any of the 'financial media' challenging the statement - energy blind all, and chosenly so in many cases.
For anyone still ignorant: Surplus Energy Economics | The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan the last couple of posts should do it.
Clearly eating waay too much smashed avocado in the US. No wonder the birth rate has collapsed.
"Today’s housing market is so upside down there are more senior citizens buying homes than Gen Z and millennials
...In 2024, there were more home buyers over the age of 70 in the U.S. than under the age of 35, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows.
Historically, younger buyers have made up a much larger piece of the pie. The median age of a first-time home buyer was 28 years old in 1991. That jumped to 38 years old in 2024, according to NAR. And “rising home prices and high mortgage rates have pushed” the median age of home buyers to a record-high of 56 years old in 2024, up from 46 in 2021,” wrote Apollo Academy Chief Economist Torsten Sløk, citing NAR data."
https://fortune.com/2025/07/23/baby-boomers-dominate-housing-market-mil…
That is nuts, and there will be so many secondary effects down the road...
An unstable younger population will not bode well
While young in china may be the last generation, everyone in the US becoming trans may cause the same thing.
Does not bode well for what?
We are already grossly overshot. Less is better. By far.
This is not new knowledge. H G Wells named 200 million, in Men Like Gods. Soddy noted the problem back around 1926. Malthus got it right too - only the temporary application of fossil energy (low entropy, at little energy cost to us) to food-production, staved off his posit. Temporarily.
It does not bode well economically - at least in the short term.
Global food growth is accelerating while population is in the throes of flipping to an asymptotic decline. Malthus was debunked in the 1960's by chap named Borlaug with a bit of help from Mendel. Amazing punters still cling to a theory so thoroughly falsified.
"FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2025 has been revised up by 35.6 million tonnes (1.2 percent) compared to the projection from July, driven by improved prospects for coarse grain crops. This latest revision reinforces the expectation of a record-high global cereal output in 2025, which is now anticipated at 2 961 million tonnes, 3.5 percent above the previous year’s level."
"An example of a historical statistical null hypothesis was published by Malthus in his theory of population from the 1798 book Essay on the Principle of Population. In his essay, Malthus established the hypothesis that food production would not be able to keep up with the earth's population growth. His reasoning was based on the contrast between agricultural performance and the abrupt population growth at the time. Based on the (empirical) experience of countless famines in Europe during the 19th century, Malthus' hypothesis was regarded as correct. Over the course of the 20th century, however, the null hypothesis was refuted."
https://www.statista.com/statistics-glossary/definition/345/null_hypoth…
Maybe the young are smarter than the old
Maybe not necessarily smarter rather less impacted by decades of indoctrination
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.