Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.
But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at +194,500, a decrease of 10,400 from the prior week when an increase of about that was indicated by seasonal factors. There are now 1.75 mln people on these benefits, +81,000 more than at this time last year.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) retreated in August. A retreat was expected but it came in more than twice the expected decline. That means the LEI fell by -2.8% over the six months between February and August, a faster rate of decline than its -0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period. They noted persistently weak manufacturing new order levels and consumer expectations, and warn of increased headwinds ahead.
But it is not weak everywhere. The Philly Fed factory survey for September picked up a modest rise in new orders. But firms in the region remain under sharp price pressure unable to pass on the higher prices they are paying.
On the farm, the giant American soybean crop is about ready for harvest, and farmers are glum. The Chinese aren't buying and the Washington isn't coming to the rescue with subsidy support. Prices are back to 2016-2018 levels and the rural concern is palpable.
In Financial markets, there was a notable less well-supported US Treasury inflation protected (TIPS) bond tender today that resulted in a median yield of 1.65% plus CPI inflation, compared to 1.93% plus CPI at the prior equivalent event three months ago.
There were more central bank rate reviews overnight. Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%. They have an inflation target of 2.0% and their CPI is currently running at 1.6%. Norway cut theirs by -25 bps to 4.0% in what has been called a "hawkish cut". They have inflation at 3.0% with their target at 2.0%. And the Bank of England held theirs at 4% as expected. They have inflation at inflation at 3.8% when their target is 2%. South Africa held at 7%. Inflation there is 3.3% with a preferred rate of 3.0%.
China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders, mostly domestic but some international orders as well.
Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.
And staying in Australia, coal mines are closing as coal prices have retreated and are now back to 2016 levels. Companies are trying to blame 'state royalty levels' but the real driver are the low global prices.
Container freight rates fell -6% last week from the prior week with all the weakness coming from outbound rates from China. But bulk freight rates rose +3.4% last week to be +14.6% higher than year ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time in a steady rise. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is no longer inverted and positive by +5 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now positive by +2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.86%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.24%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.25%, down -5 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is now up +0.6% on the S&P500 on expectations more US rate cuts are coming as the US economy weakens. Overnight, European markets were all up in Thursday trade between London's +0.2% and Frankfurt's +1.4% spurt. Tokyo rose +1.1% yesterday. Hong Kong however fell -1.4% and Shanghai fell -1.2%. Singapore fell -0.3%. The ASX200 fell -0.8% in Thursday trade. And that was matched by the NZX50.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,643/oz, down -US$15 from yesterday's post Fed dip.
American oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price at just under US$67.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.8 USc and down -90 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66, down -50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,553 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
39 Comments
Holding above 58usd. There were earlier claims the exchange rate was going below 50usd which if it happened would be worse for inflation. Does the rbnz need to prop up the kiwi
Hard to see how the RBNZ could seriously contemplate a 0.5% cut. Surely they can’t claim it’s needed to prevent the CPI going under 1%!
Trump will be telling his stooge in the stats department to make sure soy beans are a big part of the CPI basket. We might see a McSoy burger announcement.
Before anyone comments on currencies and CPI and OCR, inflation is generally measured and reacted to months after it appears, so the flow-on from this will appear in data next year.
What happens if the next GDP is negative? Technically a recession isn’t it? What will the reserve bank do? What will the coalition do considering they keep telling us we’re going to get growth? Who’s fault will it be this time
I don’t know about yous, but I’m not seeing these supposed green shoots. Economy seems worse than April-June to me.
JJ. Looking past the coffee shop/retail sectors which seem to largely define 'the economy' in legacy media articles, modest green shoots are starting to appear in some locations. Top line across NZ is down by about 20% R12 in one largish business our family owns but its also becoming more apparent by the day that in selected provinces where rivers of white gold have begun to run, there's a growing spike in spending.
Damning indictment of RBNZ to cut 50 here after 25s and pause. That said I believe it needs to be done. We are also spending to much money already with no real prospect of increasing spend on teachers / health etc etc, instead it will be a reduction of services, perhaps a part charge again, like $100 per night in hospital, If we are not prepared to contribute more we must accept a sinking lid and falling service levels.
Yep, they should have known the economy was going backwards at the time they chose to pause. Waiting 6 months for confirmation from stats isn’t good.
NAct borrow 15b this year... not much bang for buck, me thinks that if Willis runs NZ like her house she will be bankrupt soon.
Nah she's making the kids go without and importing Temu rubbish
Re the US
In the disunited states, conflict and uncertainty rule - Time to come home
Some time ago I called the US a failed state. Murray86 disagreed, and I acknowledged that 'failing' might be more accurate.
'With the intensification of economic, social and environmental challenges, somebody is going to have to respond. It will be us in the places we call home. The political system of the U.S. has reached an apparent dead end. It can no longer solve problems. It is too conflict-ridden and divided. It may completely fall apart. We don’t know. But in the midst of this uncertainty is a certainty that, whatever the future, political change begins at home in our communities through gaining power in state and local governments. That is where to concentrate our efforts, to build a future where we really do begin to resolve our multiple crises.'
Time for a decent global conflict to unite the masses then?
Or will they just continue their deliberate provocation and prodding of the masses until they can impose martial law/cancel elections.
Yes the first steps in the disintegration is the recognition that the federal organisation is working against them. There are many uncertainties here though.
Will the coming internal conflict be red state against blue? Will the red states be able to raise the forces to attack and subdue the blue. Will the militaries and national guards go along? The biggest of all questions are around the constitution, and the accusations from groups who are as guilty or worse of the very things they're accusing the others of. Or maybe will the military hold a coup to restore the primacy of the constitution and go after any and everyone who has failed their oath of office?
Can it be salvaged at all? How could it be done?
And when China, Russia and the others of the axis step into the gap will the fragmentation prevent a coherent defense? What is happening in the US is a global problem with global consequences. Every single one of us has an interest in the outcome.
Pretty nasty canceling Kimmel for what he said mocking how trump answered the reporters question about Charlie Kirk
Kimmels send up of trump at last years Oscars was comedy gold in my opinion. No wonder he wanted Kimmel gone
Note how corrective text gives Kimmel a capital and trump a small, haha
You'd think that Trump's success would give him some self-confidence, but he still seems remarkably thin-skinned.
Pretty nasty canceling Kimmel for what he said mocking how trump answered the reporters question about Charlie Kirk
I guess if you lie about Charlie Kirk’s assassin being MAGA, you can expect outrage and TV station owners taking you off air.
We shouldn't be looking at celebrities as free speech martyrs.
You have Trump/RFK Junior, half the administration, Fox news, most of the right wing extremist news lying about everything every day. Those are the people that are supposed to be telling the truth, but aren't. They aren't being cancelled for not telling the truth.
However when a late night comedy show host doesn't tell the truth, he's the one that is cancelled? He isn't a reporter, he is a comedian, you know that safe space where you could say anything you wanted really, if it made people laugh.
Time to check yourself, which one is more important to hear the truth from? Administrative officials, reporters... or comedians?
Time to check yourself, which one is more important to hear the truth from? Administrative officials, reporters... or comedians?
OK. Personally, I think it's not good for ratings if comedians make jokes about politically charged, tinderbox events like political assassinations and suggest that one group in society is responsible (when it's clear they're not).
I would feel compelled to do something if I were the network boss.
But that's just me.
I wonder if they were influenced in their decision by Trump's politicization of the FCC, and the fact that these companies are relying on FCC approvals for upcoming merger deals?
“Clearly, Nexstar is sucking up to Carr,” one telecom lawyer told me Wednesday just after the show’s cancellation. “Kimmel’s comments are noxious, but from a First Amendment standpoint, they would have been protected in the past. He’s a comedian, so how is he distorting the news unless you have a deal to be approved by the FCC?”
"The deal to buy Tegna announced in August would extend the company’s reach even more. Both companies combined would cover 80% of households, operating 265 stations in 44 states. In some markets, the new company will control three or four stations. All of that needs FCC approval."
https://nypost.com/2025/09/18/media/heres-the-real-reason-abc-suspended…
He didn't get fired for a lack of ratings, don't try to introduce more bulldust into a clearly politically motivated firing.
So you think comedians should have guardrails put on them so they can't lie. But you don't think reporters or government officials should have guardrails put on them so they can't lie.
Man, some people are so far down the rabbit hole, I can't believe they are capable of understanding the world.
If it is categorically found to have been a lie (I'm hearing conflicting reports and the guy doesn't seem to be speaking about his motives other than disliking Kirk), this is the kind of thing that is normally resolved by a 'mea culpa' at the top of the next show.
Edit: I guess we should also mention the enormous fine that Fox News paid a couple of years ago for lying about the election - did heads roll for that?
https://apnews.com/article/fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trial-trump-2020-0…
He didn't get fired for a lack of ratings, don't try to introduce more bulldust into a clearly politically motivated firing.
He got fired for what he thought was funny but has backfired. Consequence of actions.
Ultimately this impacts ratings. His ratings are experiencing substantial year-long audience decline, dropping 43% from 1.95 million viewers in January 2025 to just 1.1 million in August, with the lowest household ratings of the year registered recently.
https://nypost.com/2025/09/18/media/jimmy-kimmels-ratings-were-slipping…
Can you be clear on your position here - was he fired because his ratings had dropped and the timing is pure coincidence? Or fired in expectation that his left-wing audience would be so outraged by his jabs at Trump that his ratings would drop further, and the networks saw that coming and acted immediately?
Neither seems as likely as the 'heavy political interference', or the 'networks paying homage to the King' reasons.
Can you be clear on your position here - was he fired because his ratings had dropped and the timing is pure coincidence?
When your ratings are in freefall and you create more pain for your employer, it makes sense that you could be fired.
"When your ratings are in freefall and you create more pain for your employer, it makes sense that you could be fired."
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
I look forward to seeing this policy applied all the way to the top.
"lowest household ratings of the year registered recently"
A couple of points:
- Kemmel was on leave with (what were very poor) guest hosts during August so not surprising that his rating recently dropped
- In addition to the 1.95m viewers, his You Tube subscribers are currently 20.8million and have been steadily increasing.
Trump who has had a simmering fued previously called for Kemmel's firing (along with Colbert and others) and it was Trump's lackey Carr of the FCC who openly threatened ABC to pull him on what was simply an act of censorship. Even some Republicans, such as Tuker Carlson, acknowledge that it was contrary to the principle of free speeech under the First Amendment.
YT subscriber count can useful for benchmarking potential audience base and influencing initial distribution but is no longer the most reliable or comprehensive indicator of actual reach or engagement frequency. You need to track a combination of metrics: unique viewers (reach), average impressions per viewer (frequency), and engagement rates, rather than relying solely on subscriber numbers.
There's some serious goalpost shifting going on here, you are having to do some real mental gymnastics to keep the cognitive dissonance at bay.
It's a slippery slope when you start covering for authoritarianism. Give it another few months and who knows what people will be justifying.
We know that several members of the Trump administration have lied about the Epstein files, should they be fired? Patel and Bondi come to mind - "I have the files on my desk" / "there are no files" from Bondi, Patel has completely changed his story now he is in power.
It's really coming to something when we expect better of a late-night comedian than the Head of the FBI and Attorney General.
US Freedom of speech is now only for those supporting the regime’s views. A very clear sign of authoritarianism taking root. And there’s still over 3 years to go - assuming he goes at all.
The next round of TD cuts can't be far off.
Looks like Nicola has some sense of self awareness, running off to Luxon to ask if her job is secure given GDP shrinking over the whole country by 1.1% over the last year. His response is nothing but astonishing however:
Luxon said that was a "short conversation" with Willis.
"It was a very short conversation; 'Nicola, you're doing a great job. You've got my full backing. Full steam ahead'," he recounted.
He said he continued to trust Willis as the economic growth minister.
"Nicola Willis is the best person to be finance minister and economic growth minister in this country," he said.
He can't be serious, nobody in the whole country could do better? I think almost anyone could have done as well, but there are hundreds of people that could have done better.
Luxon’s trademark of uninformed reassurance delivered with confidence. A perfect fit for our so called 'growth' minister.
But the jig is up.
Confidence over deliverance, a signature inherited from the govt before them. Oh how the masses must feel fooled, to vote out Labour who were predominantly all promises and no outcomes, to inherit a coalition who, after 2 years at the help, have failed to achieve anything short of a few freebies for the headlines (funding for concerts etc). I bet those tax breaks have aged very poorly given they were gobbled up within months of the implementation.
Assigning Willis the title of Minister of Economic Growth is a huge hospital pass when we're getting underwhelming results. It's right to ask for her resignation when she's been explicitly appointed to grow the economy.
It's all good. When she gets booted, her party and the NZ public will have clear numbers to brand her the minister of failure or something of the like.
The annual fee for the U.S. American Express Platinum Card has increased to $895 as of September 2025, up from the previous $695 fee; this applies to both consumer and business versions of the card.
The fee increase ($200) reflects significant enhancements, with over $3,500 in annual benefits now available through credits and perks.
https://www.cnbc.com/select/amex-platinum-card-2025-changes/
China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders
If they're anywhere as good as the latest Chinese cars, then that's is great news, and very bad news for Boeing and Airbus.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.