Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.
But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at +194,500, a decrease of 10,400 from the prior week when an increase of about that was indicated by seasonal factors. There are now 1.75 mln people on these benefits, +81,000 more than at this time last year.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) retreated in August. A retreat was expected but it came in more than twice the expected decline. That means the LEI fell by -2.8% over the six months between February and August, a faster rate of decline than its -0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period. They noted persistently weak manufacturing new order levels and consumer expectations, and warn of increased headwinds ahead.
But it is not weak everywhere. The Philly Fed factory survey for September picked up a modest rise in new orders. But firms in the region remain under sharp price pressure unable to pass on the higher prices they are paying.
On the farm, the giant American soybean crop is about ready for harvest, and farmers are glum. The Chinese aren't buying and the Washington isn't coming to the rescue with subsidy support. Prices are back to 2016-2018 levels and the rural concern is palpable.
In Financial markets, there was a notable less well-supported US Treasury inflation protected (TIPS) bond tender today that resulted in a median yield of 1.65% plus CPI inflation, compared to 1.93% plus CPI at the prior equivalent event three months ago.
There were more central bank rate reviews overnight. Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%. They have an inflation target of 2.0% and their CPI is currently running at 1.6%. Norway cut theirs by -25 bps to 4.0% in what has been called a "hawkish cut". They have inflation at 3.0% with their target at 2.0%. And the Bank of England held theirs at 4% as expected. They have inflation at inflation at 3.8% when their target is 2%. South Africa held at 7%. Inflation there is 3.3% with a preferred rate of 3.0%.
China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders, mostly domestic but some international orders as well.
Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.
And staying in Australia, coal mines are closing as coal prices have retreated and are now back to 2016 levels. Companies are trying to blame 'state royalty levels' but the real driver are the low global prices.
Container freight rates fell -6% last week from the prior week with all the weakness coming from outbound rates from China. But bulk freight rates rose +3.4% last week to be +14.6% higher than year ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time in a steady rise. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is no longer inverted and positive by +5 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now positive by +2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.86%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.24%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.25%, down -5 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is now up +0.6% on the S&P500 on expectations more US rate cuts are coming as the US economy weakens. Overnight, European markets were all up in Thursday trade between London's +0.2% and Frankfurt's +1.4% spurt. Tokyo rose +1.1% yesterday. Hong Kong however fell -1.4% and Shanghai fell -1.2%. Singapore fell -0.3%. The ASX200 fell -0.8% in Thursday trade. And that was matched by the NZX50.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,643/oz, down -US$15 from yesterday's post Fed dip.
American oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price at just under US$67.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.8 USc and down -90 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66, down -50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,553 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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9 Comments
Holding above 58usd. There were earlier claims the exchange rate was going below 50usd which if it happened would be worse for inflation. Does the rbnz need to prop up the kiwi
Hard to see how the RBNZ could seriously contemplate a 0.5% cut. Surely they can’t claim it’s needed to prevent the CPI going under 1%!
Trump will be telling his stooge in the stats department to make sure soy beans are a big part of the CPI basket. We might see a McSoy burger announcement.
Before anyone comments on currencies and CPI and OCR, inflation is generally measured and reacted to months after it appears, so the flow-on from this will appear in data next year.
What happens if the next GDP is negative? Technically a recession isn’t it? What will the reserve bank do? What will the coalition do considering they keep telling us we’re going to get growth? Who’s fault will it be this time
I don’t know about yous, but I’m not seeing these supposed green shoots. Economy seems worse than April-June to me.
Damning indictment of RBNZ to cut 50 here after 25s and pause. That said I believe it needs to be done. We are also spending to much money already with no real prospect of increasing spend on teachers / health etc etc, instead it will be a reduction of services, perhaps a part charge again, like $100 per night in hospital, If we are not prepared to contribute more we must accept a sinking lid and falling service levels.
Yep, they should have known the economy was going backwards at the time they chose to pause. Waiting 6 months for confirmation from stats isn’t good.
NAct borrow 15b this year... not much bang for buck, me thinks that if Willis runs NZ like her house she will be bankrupt soon.
Re the US
In the disunited states, conflict and uncertainty rule - Time to come home
Some time ago I called the US a failed state. Murray86 disagreed, and I acknowledged that 'failing' might be more accurate.
'With the intensification of economic, social and environmental challenges, somebody is going to have to respond. It will be us in the places we call home. The political system of the U.S. has reached an apparent dead end. It can no longer solve problems. It is too conflict-ridden and divided. It may completely fall apart. We don’t know. But in the midst of this uncertainty is a certainty that, whatever the future, political change begins at home in our communities through gaining power in state and local governments. That is where to concentrate our efforts, to build a future where we really do begin to resolve our multiple crises.'
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