Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news eyes are on the Pearl River delta region today as Super Typhoon Ragasa aims for a direct hit.
But first up, we can report that the US National Activity Index as collated by the Chicago Fed, was less negative in August, extending the negative trend to five consecutive months. But the July data was revised lower.
There were Fed speakers out overnight. Miran made the lone case in favour of Trump's big slash, whereas Hammack, Barkin, Williams, Musalem, and earlier Daly, all made the case for eyeing inflation risks as well as jobs risks.
In Canada, their producer prices rose faster, now up +4.0% from a year ago, largely on the impacts of the US tariff-taxes where Canadian substituted other components than American ones. But beef prices are a notable riser in this latest data.
The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged at record lows for the fourth straight month yesterday, as expected. The 1-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the 5-year benchmark stayed at 3.5%.
In China, they said they will limit the steel industry's growth to 4% over the next two years to deal with their severe over-capacity problem and force companies to invest in quality rather than volume gains.
And the fast growing rail land-bridge from China to Europe is closing, essentially because the Poland-Belarus border is being sealed to guard against Russian infiltration. It is hard to see Beijing being happy about that.
Hong Kong authorities are bracing for “serious threats” posed by the looming Super Typhoon Ragasa, which is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220 km/h over the next few days, potentially breaking a record set during Saola in 2023. Their airport is likely to close, along with much else including their stock market. And mass evacuations have started in neighbouring Shenzhen.
This is what the Hong Kong official met service warned late last night. "Under the influence of significant storm surge, there will be a rise in water level of about 2 metres over coastal areas of Hong Kong in the morning of Wednesday. The maximum water level can generally reach around 3.5 to 4 metres above chart datum, and the water level at Tolo Harbour may even reach 4 to 5 metres above chart datum. Members of the public should take appropriate precautions." A 5 metre storm surge seems pretty significant.
In Europe, and despite political and tariff uncertainties, consumer sentiment 'rose' (that is, got less bad) in September, probably because both inflation and borrowing costs eased in the past month.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +55 bps. Their 1-5 curve is no longer inverted, now positive by +9 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now +5 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.88%, up +1 bp. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.28, up +3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just under 4.27%, and up +4 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has started its week up +0.4% on the S&P500 and a new all-time high. Euro[pean markets were mixed to start their week with London up +0.1% but Frankfurt down -0.5%. Tokyo ended its Monday session uo a full +1.0% and also a new ATH. Hong Kong however fell -0.2% but Shanghai was up +0.2%. Singapore dipped -0.1%. The ASX200 ended with a +0.4% gain but the NZX50 retreated a sharpish -0.7%.
The price of gold will start today at US$3736/oz, up +US$52 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver had another +US$1 spurt overnight, now up over US$44/oz to a 14 year high.
American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.7 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.9, up +10 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,448 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
14 Comments
"A 5 metre storm surge seems pretty significant." No shit! You're not normally given to understatement DC.
A 5 metre surge may well put their airport underwater. Indeed on the news this morning it was reported their airport has been closed for at least two days. In addition I'd say most if not all of their dock areas will be well underwater. This storm could well have a signifcant material as well as economic impact. It is being referred to as a "super typhoon".
That's above Chart Datum, not above high tide.
And the 4-5 will be an ass-cover...
Wind-blown waves are powerful things, but...
Peak boomer.
French pensioners now have higher incomes than working-age adults.
https://www.ft.com/content/d419bd2d-a6ba-44a5-a93a-1276f3e5d2d7
Isn't there a strong history of socialist policies in France? The government subsidises a bunch of stuff too. Plus they did something around four day working weeks, and their standard working week according to a quick search is 35 hours, not 40.
That's hardly fair, though probably nuanced
It is hard to see Beijing being happy about that. Hard to see Russia being happy about it either. EU will be stoked as they can send more stuff to Russia via Central Asia. Amazing how China and the EU get a free pass about support for Russia.
"China's transshipments to Russia via Central Asia have been rising sharply in recent months. This coincides with a slowdown in China's direct exports to Russia. The same flood of goods are going from China to Russia, just via more circuitous routes."
"Poland shows the way for ethical government in the EU. Like in other EU countries, transshipments to Russia exploded after the invasion. Poland cracked down on this and now this racket is over. If transshipments continue from other EU countries, it's by choice and inaction."
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1969378920085561364/photo/1
https://www.statista.com/chart/33242/transshipments/
Except over the weekend Ursula Von Der Leyen, the President of the EC announced increased sanctions against Russia because of their increased testing of NATOs response. Putin is trying to push NATO into shooting first, but when it happens it won't be over Russia. It'll be over a NATO country like Poland or Estonia, so he won't have a case. NATO will probably try to force the Russian aircraft to land first though, although I can't see that being successful.
Very hard to get close enough to force a landing as both sides will have AWACS in the air inside their own airspace 24/7. Possible way to down a plane is a ground-based air defense missile. Putin would love it so it will probably not happen.
Almost looks like he wants to try to bait Europe into engagement so China can attack Taiwan and the US has to deal with a multifront war.
They may not have war gamed that well. Be tough on NZ to lose Chinese market overnight, would require negative interest rates, and possible nationalisation of many large NZ corps
Russia May have been expending old munitions and armaments in Ukraine and employing cannon fodder to free up prison and asylum space but the overall strength of its military can hardly have been enhanced since the invasion. This conflict has also seen the traditional concept of air superiority largely dissipated. My guess is that this is predominantly bellicose political posturing by Russia and in that regard it succeeds in making the NATO participants look increasingly as the fabled three little pigs eying the prowling wolf.
Oh bless your war games strategies. So cute! I'll believe when the EU stops exporting to Russia via proxies. Free pass for China?
Updated EU "Wall of Shame:" new all-time high for Dutch exports going to Kyrgyzstan in latest data for May 2025. Countries in orange clamped down on transshipments to Russia. Countries in blue refuse to. The EU is deeply broken. Short-term greed overrides medium-term security.
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1964725951226634427/photo/1
Maccy B compares the basket case economies of Aussie and Japan.
Australia is doing the complete opposite of the parts of Japan’s economic strategy that are succeeding and delivering growth for its populace.
Instead of workers being redeployed in pursuit of the greatest possible productivity growth, Australia’s strategy of poorly targeted high migration and growth in the size and scope of taxpayer-funded employment has delivered anaemic productivity growth, despite some outstanding performances in some aspects of the economy, such as agriculture.
It is undoubtedly possible for Australia to follow a different path: one focused on productivity and growth driven by private enterprise. However, that would require some major changes to how the economy and our society operate.
And our political class isn’t ready for that, even if the electorate is.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/09/japans-economy-smokes-australi…
More than 100,000 Australian investors have $11 billion in three frozen La Trobe Financial funds that the corporate regulator believes may have made high-risk loans to property developers that were marketed as safe bets.
Probably nothing. You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar.
On Monday, the firm’s chief investment officer, Chris Paton, told investors in its property-focused Australian credit fund there was little to worry about, even though the asset manager has cut off access to the website used by clients to access their investments.
“I want to reassure our investors that your investments with La Trobe financial remain safe and under our careful stewardship,” Mr Paton said. “Each of our products our supported by high-quality granular loan assets within highly diversified portfolios that are built with conservatism at their core.”
ASIC’s decision late last week to shut off new investments in three funds operated by one of the best-known private credit managers is a blow to an industry that stepped in a few years ago to offer loans after the big banks were forced to cut back lending.
https://thenightly.com.au/business/la-trobe-financial-11b-locked-up-in-…
There is only one cockroach.
A decent article on Stuff! https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360832076/how-nz-economy-tracking-afte…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.