Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news financial markets are shrugging off a myriad of risks today, with what seems like the flimsiest of reasons.
The key news overnight is that US President Trump seems to have backed off his sharp rhetoric against China in another TACO moment. Markets went into temporary relief mode.
Also in the US, there had been fears that regional bank bad-loan risks were building and spreading. But overnight lenders such as Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance, which tumbled Thursday, recovered +4% to +6%. Strong earnings from Fifth Third Bancorp, Truist Financial, and Huntington Bancshares helped restore confidence in the sector. A lot of the angst can actually be traced back to a February bankruptcy of a Southern California real estate investor, MOM CA Investco LLC, and their dodgy overlapping security obligations.
In this case, like the First Brands case, there is a strong push to paint the woes as 'one-offs' rather than a broader malaise. Markets are buying it, for now at least.
It is early in the Wall Street Q3 earnings reporting cycle with only 12% of S&P500 having reported so far, but 88% of them have beaten analyst estimates.
Indian bank loan growth accelerated to its fastest pace of expansion in September, for all of 2025, up +11.4% from year-ago levels to US$2.3 bln.
After two months of declines, Singapore's exports rose almost +7% in September from a year ago, largely on the back of recovering exports of electronic goods.
In Malaysia, their Q3 GDP result shows them expanding +5.2% from a year ago, accelerating from +4.4% growth in Q2. It is their fastest expansion in a year
In Australia, there is growing concern about the building of uneven wealth distribution and how inheritances embed both inequality and entitlement. A failed attempt to address it through their superannuation system reforms has just raised the pressure to 'do something'.
A more immediate stress is also building in Australia; American pressure to de-couple from China. This seems quite unlikely given the local wealth-weight dependent on the China trade. But it will make for 'interesting times' in the AU-US relationship.
This week we look at titanium, a metal with important strength-to-weight attributes needed for many high-tech applications. China is the dominant producer, supplying about a third of global needs. No other country comes close. US is about 1%, Australia 2%. South Africa and Mozambique together match China. At current production levels, proven reserves will last at least 60 years. (Page 189.)
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.01% and up +4 bps from this time Friday but down -4 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +54 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive again but only by +2 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now -8 bps inverted. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.16%, up +1 bp from Friday, down a sharp -13 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 3.99%, down -7 bps from Friday at this time and down -17 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street is volatile today with the S&P500 now up +0.6% which is up +0.7% for the week. European markets were mostly lower between Paris's -0.2% and Frankfurt's -1.8%. Tokyo ended its Friday down -1.4% for a weekly -1.9% retreat. Hong Kong dropped -2.5% to end its week down -1.5%. Shanghai fell -2.0% on Friday but was up +1.0% for the week. Singapore fell -0.6% on Friday. Locally, the ASX200 fell -0.8% to end its week up a net +0.9%. And the NZX50 retreated -0.7% in Friday trade for a -1.3% weekly drop.
The Fear & Greed index has switched sharply into the 'extreme fear' zone, from just in the 'neutral' zone.
The price of gold will start today at US$4221/oz, down -US$52 from yesterday and off its highs. Silver has fallen proportionately more to just over US$51.50/oz. Platinum is retreating too, now at US$1616/oz and down -6.7% from yesterday. In a week however, gold is up a net +5.8%, silver is up a net +3.3% and platinum is now marginally lower.
American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$61/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$59/bbl and US$63/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and unchanged from yesterday and little-changed (+10 bps) from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, unchanged from Friday and a week ago. Also, see this.
The Chinese yuan strengthened against the greenback for a third straight day Friday, driven by a combination of a faltering American currency amid rising US economic uncertainty and surprisingly good Chinese export data. Against the NZD, the yuan is actually little changed for the week but is +3% stronger over the past month.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,175 and down another -2.3% from this time yesterday. It is down -10.0% from this time last week. In NZD that is a -$20,000 drop in a week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.
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42 Comments
Market has not climbed back up past the Fibonacci line from trump tweet. A retest of the downside is more likely before a retest of the upside.Very dangerous times ahead.
Anywho its summer, time to go brew a "Lawnmower Larger - Pilsner malt - and a heap of late Saaz", vacuum the pool and clean the BBQ.
Spare a thought for those poor RE agents lumping around signs and flags all summer in vain.
After reading above 3rd & 4th paras, together with much preceding similar comment on here, it strikes up a recurring vision of a whole set of dominoes on their ends, wobbling and facing a building wind.
Yes a moments silence for the thousands of destitute REAs.......a crashing housing market is not the best place to ply such a extraction trade, based on lies, deception and self interested bargaining.
With mortgagee sales surging (hiding beneath is a mega iceberg) and many businesses in trouble or in a significant downturn ......... Lower mortgage rates are not stemming the backslide!
"Interest.co.nz estimates that New Zealand real estate agencies earned around $476 million in gross residential sales commissions in Q3 this year, up 7.9% compared to Q3 last year."
Real estate agencies' residential commissions showing steady growth | interest.co.nz
But that's parasitic - entirely non-productive.
So it's a drain on debt, until proven otherwise.
A way off from the 2.30BILLION peak raked in annually, in recent years.
"Estimated commission levels rose sharply after the lifting of Covid restrictions, rising to $1.92 billion in 2020 and peaking at $2.34 billion in 2021, then sliding back to $1.6 billion in 2022 and $1.56 billion in 2023"
Annual real estate agency commissions down $780m from 2021 peak | interest.co.nz
As PDK says, it's a parasitic rort.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/131614/vendors-paid-estimated-177-b…
1.78B in 2024, Thrive in 2025, Pick up chicks in 2026
Contraction followed by recovery and exuberance
Housing market dies in the ditch in 26
Never mind data showing RE agents commission are UP, KKNZ. Some are too vested in what they would like to happen, that they cannot see what is actually happening.
lumping signs in vain
? I dont think so mate
Prices arent increasing much, but turnover of 6000+ residential properties plus farms plus commercial per month keeps agents humming
I feel for indebted vendors and those under bank pressure
85% are lumping 15% creaming it, as always.
Always Be Closing
Why not focus on your own affairs ITG, instead of trying to revel in other's misfortune ?
Haha that’s a bit of sad guy comment ITG, and it could be applied to any industry where the cream always rises to the top…it sounds like you’ve done well out “flipping” houses years ago…so why the hate on the RE agents now?
Good question, why is he sooo bitter if he did that well in the past…..?
I ask this question too. It is really rather strange. Many here call property a "Ponzi" yet continue to buy property, which you obviously wouldn't do in a true Ponzi.
" Many here call property a "Ponzi" yet continue to buy property, which you obviously wouldn't do in a true Ponzi."
Have you considered that those describing the ponzi do in fact not buy (other than for shelter)?
Buying property for shelter is still buying property. This is why it's not a Ponzi. Nothing could be more obvious. Property actually exists. Anyone using the term Ponzi is lightweight or disingenuous.
the property itself is not the ponzi...the expectation in valuation is.
The same would apply to all other investments like shares...ridiculous. Property has a lot more indicators of potential value increases than many other investments.
"The same would apply to all other investments then...ridiculous."
Does it?....I would suggest that most investment decisions are based upon the ability to generate a return rather than the expectation of a capital gain.
As said the ponzi is in the expectation....and yes that can be said to apply to the other bubbles as well, including shares.
Property does generate returns. Why not just use bubble? The term Ponzi in regard to most property could generously be described as hyperbole.
As a basic indicator of the size of the suggested ponzi, deduct from residential property numbers nationwide, the percentage of NZrs like me, in that the only property they own is the home they live in. Also would wager within that category, most have never owned any property other than that.
ps : oh, see the 2023 census had 66% as owner occupied. It would appear then that percentage of landlords is resonable rather than out of hand?
What is the difference between a ponzi and a bubble?
GUY I looked up some numbers, last year there was approx 90,000 sales, resi, LSB and rural. Shared between 12 to 14 thousand licensed REA. This includes the commercial agents but couldnt find comm sales numbers. You like healthy figures
Re resources.
DC - thank you for the effort, but I notice the cadenza is always: at current levels of...
Such is never the case - we've gone through half the oil ever burned, in the last 30 years. Almost 100% correlation with GDP growth (no surprise) which is, of course, exponential/compound.
Time truncates exponentially...
Plus which of course, it's the peak supply-rate which counts; nobody will develop mines or refineries after that point; the volumes will not justify the business-case (think Marsden Point).
Still plenty of oil and gas out there.
The company has also made significant discoveries in Namibia, Egypt, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.
Kuwait announces major natural gas discovery at Al-Jazah offshore field
That cannot be right! The Club of Rome told us we would run out of oil in 50 years in1972, at 5x known reserves with consumption growing exponentially at the average annual rate of growth.
So, we have used 5x times known reserves at the time and still have 1.7 trillion bbl proven reserves left - 5x what they were in 1972. That is proven reserves, not technical reserves, or the vastly greater known reserves.
When will the peak oil tragics give it a day?
"The number of years that five times known global reserves will last with consumption growing exponentially at the average annual rate of growth."
TABLE 4 NONRENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES
https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/
Exponential
so bollocks
Running out is not the problem (and never was)....failing to meet required demand however .
Estimates are crude production peaked in 2018...we are maintaining capacity (though barely growing it) through alternative sources....and those sources are less dense, more difficult (and energy intensive) to provide and have a faster depletion rate, not to mention the increasing damaging waste products.
The LtG systems analysis predicted a decline in output not because we ran out but because of the interplay between energy and production...and even with the alternative sources their forecast is still on track.
CoF were very clear about how long resources would last, and even made a handy table 4 to simplify it for you. Respect to them for making a hard prediction unlike all the other goalpost shifting doomsters. Even stating advances in technology would not be fast enough to "save us". They left no wriggle room. In the 50 years proven reserves went from 300 billion to 1.7 trillion. They got it wrong.
"The number of years that five times known global reserves will last with consumption growing exponentially at the average annual rate of growth."
ZS - ever thought about comparative facts, rather than selective?
Peak discoveries globally: 1964. 56bb.
versus: news: Global oil and gas discoveries fall to record low
The Monkees come to mind...
Comparative facts not selective
One thing is sure is that you're a good wordsmith. How do we change your way of thinking to be more like normal people
In 2024, oil demand grew by just 0.8% compared to 2023's 1.9%. I guess this is still "exponential" but it wont be if demand stops and then reduces, which is very likely.
"... but it wont be if demand stops and then reduces, which is very likely."
And we know that demand and 'growth' has a high positive correlation....so if oil (energy) demand declines we can expect a corresponding decline in output.
The U.S. Department of Justice is going that two Los Angeles-area real estate executives who have been charged in separate federal criminal cases following an investigation by the newly formed Homelessness Fraud and Corruption Task Force.
The task force was launched to uncover fraud and corruption in California’s homelessness programs. California has spent roughly $24 billion over five years to address homelessness, yet oversight failures and alleged corruption prompted federal investigation. The task force involves the DOJ, FBI, and IRS Criminal Investigation units and aims to ensure public accountability for misuse of homelessness-related funds.
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/homelessness-funding-fraud-fede…
Don’t be surprised corruption is a self generating, self fulfilling industry running neck and neck with crime. by nation , state, municipality, and community entrenched and rampant. Someone once quoted something like - corruption that hides in plain sight is the greatest threat to any civilisation. No need to look much further than the good ol’ USA for a fine example.
Broadly understood but almost impossible to prove..such is life.
Fascinating article, thanks for the post.
It's not "what" you know , but "who" more true now than ever.
Stealing and grifting from the taxpayer for the less fortunate is bad enough. But it doesn't stop. Los Angeles County public and private employers were estimated to have lost about $10 billion in unemployment claim fraud through the state’s Employment Development Department during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The announcement came alongside criminal charges against 13 Los Angeles County employees from seven different county agencies, accused of stealing a combined $437,383 in unemployment benefits between 2020 and 2023, while still employed full-time and receiving their regular county paychecks. District Attorney Nathan Hochman called the scope of the fraud “shocking,” emphasizing that many of those charged were in roles managing or administering public benefits.
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/13-los-angeles-county-employees…
The US economy is financialized to the point that that it has more private equity funds (19,000) than McDonald's restaurant (14,000).
The US economy is not based on innovation, and certainly not manufacturing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/-crazy-right-more-pe…
Good article thanks. It'd be interesting to see how leveraged the PE's real estate portfolios are to pile into AI given it is likely the biggest earner currently. Essentially leaves a big exposure to volatility in real estate or AI stocks impacting the other. If they see a housing turn how big then would the impact be on AI? Time will tell.
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