Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Australia seems to have avoided American ire when Prime Minister Albanese visited Washington overnight. They ended with a rare earths agreement, confirmation of the AUKUS submarine deal, and unchanged 10% tariff rates into the US.
Albanese also seems to have avoided being forced into an overt anti-China position, and has resisted committing to defense spending above 2% of GDP. Trump wanted 3.5% but that seems sidelined.
It is also pretty clear that having US support can be a toxic advantage - for the US. Despite the US committing more than US$20 bln of US taxpayer funding to bolster its currency, Trump support of Argentina is leaking those funds fast with traders taking the support funds as fast as they can (the peso is still weakening fast), and Argentina rushing to sell China soybeans to replace American farmers. You couldn't make this stuff up.
In Canada, producer prices rose 4.0% in September from a year ago, the most since January, and prior to that the most since January 2023. But this strong rise was mostly caused by the rise in precious metals, especially gold.
Meanwhile, the latest Business Outlook Survey for Canadian businesses undertaken for their central bank shows a modest recovery in sentiment, but conditions remain quite subdued.
In China, their central bank kept their key lending rates at record lows for a fifth consecutive month in October, as was expected.
The rate of fall in China's new house prices mellowed in September according to official data. They were down overall by -2.3%. Shanghai remained the outlier with a +5.6% rise, slightly below August’s +5.9% increase for that city. But for resales, it is still tough, with none of their 70 largest urban areas reporting a gain, either month-on-month or year-on-year, not even Shanghai. If you buy new, you can only still sell into a falling market.
In a surprise to no-one, China said its Q3-2025 GDP was up +4.8% from a year ago. But that showed weaker than expected consumer demand. They also reported that retail sales were up only +3.0% in September (and a one year low, compared with +3.4% in August) whereas industrial production was up +6.5% in September (+5.2% in August). Regular readers will know that we also track electricity production as a hard check against these other top-line claims. That only showed a +1.5% rise from a year ago. It regularly trails claims of big industrial output and is a core reason we are sceptical of those outsized official claims.
The latest trade and tariff threats from the US is causing trans-Pacific freight rates to spike again as goods are rushed to beat the threatened imposition. But this spike is much more muted this time as most Chinese firms have transitioned away from US supply in a significant way.
On the import front, some decoupling by China is stark. China's monthly soybean imports from the US have fallen to zero for the first time in seven years. They were replaced by mostly South American sources. China is also strangling rare earth magnet exports to the US, which could be serious for some American companies, including defense contractors.
In France, after a tense political week, S&P downgraded France's credit rating in a rare, unscheduled adjustment, citing political instability that threatens the government’s efforts to repair its finances. Basically their public purse can't afford their generous retirement benefits, but the population insist they be kept irrespective of the damage to the State.
In Germany, producer price deflation stayed well embedded, with prices falling -1.7% in September from a year ago, although this was less than the -2.2% retreat in August.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive again but only by +2 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now -6 bps inverted. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.76%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.15%, up +5 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.03%, up +4 bps.
Wall Street has started its week with a +1.2% rise and heading back towards Wednesday's ATH. Overnight European markets rose between Paris's +0.4% and Frankfurt's +1.8%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Monday session up a spectacular +3.4% and a new all-time high (ATH). Hong Kong rose +2.4% and Shanghai gained +0.6%. Singapore was the only market we follow that declined, down -0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Monday up +0.4%. And that was mirrored by the NZX50.
The price of gold will start today at US$4346/oz, up +US$95 from yesterday, a +2.2% surge to start the week. Silver hasn't had the same surge.
American oil prices are -50 USc lower at just on US$57/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$60.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, up +10 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,505 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
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3 Comments
There is an interesting chart in this article: https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360859795/inflation-fixation-situation…
Although National claims to have fixed the inflation problem, the chart clearly shows the downwards trend had already been established well before National were elected. Considering it takes time to implement policy, you could argue that National have actually caused inflation after it got to a trough of 2.2%.
Personally I think it was just global forces and interest rates that created and fixed inflation, pretty much nothing to do with either party.
Global forces, yes.
Neither Party: correct.
We need to remove the word 'funding' from political speak. Because ' funding' was always, in reality, the allocation of energy/resources. And as Hipkins/Edmonds will find (re yesterday's ' announcement') you cannot conjure up what isn't there.
Budgeting should be the allocation and setting-aside (earmarking) of physical resources - and the energy to manipulate them - ahead for the expected life-time of any proposed infrastructure. The process would be an interesting wake-up call.
Labour definitely lacked fiscal discipline. Inflation would not have been as bad if National were in power during the pandemic. You’re right though to a degree. Inflation was largely dictated by external pressures and National take a lot of credit for bringing inflation down that isn’t their doing,
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