Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news Chinese data released over the weekend indicates their domestic economy is holding its own, and their export economy continues to thrive, despite Trump.
But first a look ahead. Locally, we will get a fix on retail sales this week on Thursday with the release of the October electronic cards data, and possibly at the end of the week we will get the REINZ sales data.
In Australia we will be looking for updates to their consumer sentiment surveys and the labour market data for October (where only modest changes are expected).
In the US, the federal government shutdown is unlikely to be resolved, so the ADP Employment Report will take on extra importance and they are releasing this data weekly now. Earnings reports will keep coming. There will be important updates from Japan as well. And this is the week the Chinese release their monthly data dump, and they too are expected to show just modest changes.
Over the weekend, China said its consumer prices rose +0.2% in October from a year ago, more than the expected no change and jumping back from the -0.3% decline in September. It was their first increase in consumer inflation since June and the fastest pace since January. Stronger than expected holiday spending probably cause the uptick. Food prices fell -1.6% on this annual basis, dairy products by -1.7%. But both beef and lamb prices rose by +5.6% and +2.4% respectively.
Meanwhile, China’s producer prices eased another -2.1% in October on the same basis, marginally less than the -2.3% drop in September and the softest decrease since August 2024. But it does extend their contraction for a 37th consecutive month. The result came in slightly better than market expectations of a -2.2% fall.
And China reported that their October foreign exchange reserves swelled more than expected and are back to their highest level in a decade.
China also said its exports dipped unexpectedly from October a year ago as shipments fell -18% to the US. Imports from the US fell even more. But other than that, it seems to be business-as-normal. Australia and New Zealand both recorded healthy trade surpluses with China in October. Overall, China's October trade surplus came in at +US$90 bln for the month, and missing many analysts expectations that it might top +US$100 bln as it did in August.
In Taiwan, exports from the island nation surged +50% from October a year ago to a record high of US$62 bln, accelerating from a +34% rise in the previous month which itself was very impressive. Taiwanese exports were one fifth those of China, despite only having 1.6% of the population level. For reference, Australia's exports in October are expected to be reported on December 4 at US$30 bln - and Australia has a similar population to Taiwan. The comparison emphases how special the Taiwan export prowess is.
In the world's largest economy, the November update of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has fallen to near an all-time low in a survey that began almost 80 years ago. Only the June 2022 recording was lower. A small dip was expected but this time a large dip was recorded. Americans are worried about both current personal finances and in year-ahead expected business conditions. It's glum reading and the index is now -30% lower than year-ago levels. American consumer attitudes are in a full bear mode.
Meanwhile, the New York Fed's latest update of their Survey of Consumer Expectations reports inflation expectations dipped to 3.2% and some key opinions about their labour market weakened.
The US federal government shutdown continues with the White House unable to get its way in the Senate, either with the Democrats changing their healthcare bottom line, or the Republicans adoption the 'nuclear option'. And that means the air traffic restrictions are rolling out and become more pervasive. Thousands of flights have now been cancelled or delayed.
In Canada, they delivered something of an unexpected positive surprise from their labour market in October, You may recall the unusually strong +60,000 September jobs gain, driven by very strong full-time employment. Analysts had expected a pause. But in fact, they reported a +67,000 jobs gain in October, although this one was largely driven by a rise in part-time jobs. Rather than the expected rise, their jobless rate fell (but by most standards, it is still pretty high).
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time, down -2 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +54 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now +4 bps positive and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +16 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.76%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.36%, up +3 bps from Saturday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.12%, unchanged from Saturday, up +3 bps from this time last week.
The price of gold will start today at fractionally under US$4000/oz, down -US$5 from this time Saturday, basically back to week-ago levels.
American oil prices are slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$63.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.3 USc, and up +10 bps from Saturday but down a full -1c for the week. That is its lowest level in seven months. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps lower at 86.5 AUc and that is a 12 year low. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8 and firmish from Saturday, but its lowest since July 2009, a 16 year low.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,678 and up +1.5% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.