Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news economic optimism seems to be on the rise in many places, but not in the world's largest economy.
First in the US, not only is the federal government shut down still, but it is Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, although many firms still operate including the NYSE. But the Wall Street bond market is formally closed.
The US Senate passed a short-term compromise to end the shutdown impasse, and the lower House is now getting ready to consider the measure and they are likely to go along with it when they vote.
Meanwhile the new weekly ADP Employment report recorded a decrease in private payrolls last week, and unexpected softness. Even though this is very new weekly data, it is a key way the US labour market is being monitored now given the temporarily-closed official data agency (and doubts about its partisan leadership).
And prospects for the upcoming holiday hiring season seem to have turned gloomy. And it may not only be hiring that will be restrained; prospects for US Black Friday and Thanksgiving holiday retail sales aren't looking too bright as tariff-taxes weigh on the 'bargains'.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell marginally in October but to a level that is the lowest in six months. These firms say sales increases are harder to find.
But across the Pacific in Japan, the October Economy Watchers Survey delivered an upbeat result that was better than expected, not only about current conditions but also the outlook six months ahead.
In China, sales data for October shows their car sales rising yet again, up from the high September level to be +8.8% above year-ago levels at 3.3 mln vehicles. NEV sales were again the strongest sector. October sales start the push to the seasonally peak month in December and that will almost certainly come in at a new record month, likely somewhere near 3.8 mln units. That would mean 2025 sales will exceed 35 mln units, almost double that of the US.
In Germany, the latest ZEW survey continues the "cautiously optimistic" tone they have had for six month now.
In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence survey was suddenly quite positive, the first positive result since early 2022 and a seven year high. It reported that Christmas spending plans will be less restrained than last year. Consumers think the domestic economy is improving while they think trade risks are subsiding. One group however reported less confidence - those in their 'mortgage belt. They see interest rate risks along with job security risks.
Meanwhile, there wasn't the same uplift in business confidence however. The NAB business sentiment survey reported little-change in October, just marginally lower than in September.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time after the ADP payroll news. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +48 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now +5 bps positive and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +11 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.81%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.36%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.15%, up +1 bp.
Wall Street started lower but has turned slightly positive as trading developed, now up +0.2% in their Tuesday trade. European markets were up too between Frankfurt's +0.6% and Paris's +1.2%. Tokyo ended yesterday dipping -0.1%. Hong Kong was up +0.2% and Shanghai retreated -0.4%. However Singapore rose a sharpish +1.2%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session down -0.2%, while the NZX50 was little-changed.
The price of gold will start today at US$4113/oz, up +US$22 from this time yesterday.
American oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$61/bbl, with the international Brent price at US$65/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.6 USc, and up almost +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also +30 bps firmer at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.1 and up +20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,599 and down -1.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.
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20 Comments
Silver lining for the day; the cost of living in NZ is at the lower end of developed nations:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-the-global-cost-of-living-index…
Isn't this simply a function National/ Act/ NZF's policy to collapse the $NZD and destroy our generational wealth?
Looks like a good proxy for standard of living. Except maybe PNG.
So that's implying NZ is 27% the cost of living than NY? If that's the case I'd call that one out.
The 27th is the global ranking. The percentage relative to NY is 44.9. Sorta stacks up, in many parts of the US things cost the same or more in USD than we pay in NZ, in NZD.
$1.4 Billion &16years for EFTPOS on buses: other people's money
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/578441/national-ticketing-system-on…
Maybe I’m missing something……. But why couldn’t they just hook up eftpos like decades ago?
Its pretty complex, the fare is normally based on how many zones you travel through, so you normally need to tag on and off, and it needs to know where you did so. Then there are daily caps, weekly caps, monthly caps, transfers, concessions, free days for children, free seniors, off peak fares, cheaper weekends, cross-region fares (e.g. Te Huia), etc. Every city has a different set of rules. And then you also need a non-EFTPOS alternative card for kids etc, and you need to be able to top that up automatically or when you want to, etc. Then all the card readers / gates / etc for tens of thousands of buses. And probably a national contact centre to manage issues etc with required infrastructure.
But $1.4 billion is a lot of money. Maybe it would have been be cheaper to get rid of all the complexities and just have one single affordable flat fare nationwide. This is where private companies can use logic like that and simplify, but governments always want IT systems to do everything imaginable.
"A system to enable concession holders to pay less and the Motu Move cards themselves have been relegated to later stages."
And another Billion?
Yeah I read that. Does that mean they haven't even started on that? Surely not!
At the end of the day software is almost entirely labour, and $1.4 billion would buy you a lot of labour. I sense its worse than roadworks - 10 guys with a spade and 10000 guys telling them what to do.
Just make it free already
Great idea, get everyone else off the road except me. Mind you, they'd need to check on and off otherwise how will we know where they are/have been sarc.
Won’t be me. Don’t feel safe on board or at the exchange and carrying any sizeable shopping is not advisable.
This Police corruption. Am I missing something about our system of governance? Supposedly emails to a minister were suppressed by staffers in the ministers office? Is that what you heard?
So, let’s pick another ministry, say defence or health. Do they have the same systems?
So we have governance by chance?
oh, and another issue. A further spectacular failure by our intelligence services to protect the public. Surely they should be involved with vetting the top of any government department? MIA?
Chance is a good word. Chances are that if the identity in question here had not applied for the top job, which then triggered a vetting process, then this whole shameful episode would have remained covered up. It is rather damn obvious that the public service far too often, is incapable of properly investigating and disciplining itself.
IIRC the IPCA can only make recommendations, it's then up to the Police whether any action is taken. Which is why many proven transgressions ultimately die in the "employment matter" secrecy bin.
I am struggling with the facts at the moment. Struggling to believe that emails sent to the minister were able to be diverted without the knowledge of, say, the minister’s chief of staff. I want to know where the corruption ends.
"Police Minister Mark Mitchell has revealed that his office received 36 emails containing allegations against McSkimming since December 2023. However, Mitchell says then-Police Commissioner Andrew Coster directed police staff in the ministerial office to send the emails directly to his own office and not share them with the minister or his political staff."
https://theintegrityinstitute.substack.com/p/integrity-briefing-can-we-…
They're looking after their mates. It takes mostly personality and who you know to get promoted to the higher positions and less of capability. Too much integrity and you end up challenging the system too much and become a political liability (you have to know when to shut the F up!). They all have each others backs. If one is corrupt and if the others, no matter how many, don't dump the liability immediately, they're all corrupt!
Common across virtually every organisation.
The very top may even be out of the loop and totally unaware of what is going on under them.
Worth noting. Dispite the pressure to conform at least three individuals were prepared to die on that hill of integrity and effectively return the process to the correct rails. I was surprised.
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