Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of some really large and important economic news out of China.
But first up today, Canada released some September data overnight and it was quite positive. Their manufacturing sales rose +2.7% real, and their wholesale trade rose +0.6% real, both from August. Year-on-year it isn't so positive although manufacturing sales are almost back to those levels (-0.8%) after being down -4.1% in May. Both data indicate both remarkable resilience, and fast transition even after being dumped on capriciously by the US.
Indian bank loan growth stayed very high in October to easily a new record, even if the percentage rise wasn't as high as September. That is now three consecutive months where new debt has risen by more than +11% from the same month a year ago.
China’s new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September but dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest year-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.
Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.
China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up an unusually large +7.9% from a year ago. That may have something to do with the electricity appetite by AI infrastructure.
But the really big news from China as been for their fixed asset investment data. They said it fell -1.7% for the year to October. But that belies a huge -11% drop in the month from the same month a year earlier. For a country as large as China, that is a mammoth and sudden shift. The really large decrease was in the industrial northeast region. And it is puzzling analysts, especially in the light of the electricity data surge. Perhaps a clue is in this factoid in their data release: "fixed asset investment by foreign-invested enterprises decreased by 12.1%". The slump raises important questions about the health of domestic demand which is still over-reliant on exporting. The internal economy still hasn't gotten over the real estate slump and the defensive change in attitudes by their consumers.
In the West African nation of Guinea, a huge Chinese iron ore project has started production, aiming to wean China off Australian supply. Chinese firms have ordered dozens of giant ore carriers in a multibillion-dollar rush to transport the material from the world’s largest new iron ore project, one that will upend control over the global supply chain. The impact on Australia could now come quite quickly and be far from trivial.
There was some interesting data out overnight from the EU, where their trade surplus rose to +€19 bln in September. That was its best in five months and +50% better that year ago results. Driving the gains were exports to the US and the UK, offset somewhat by imports from India and Mexico. Imports from the US rose too but at a slower pace than the export activity. Imports from South Korea fell sharply. Trade activity with China was little-changed although it remains deeply negative (that is, more imports from China than exports to China).
In Australia, dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, accounted for over 17,500 deaths in 2024 and is now the nation’s leading cause of death, overtaking ischaemic heart diseases, according to data released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
On the trade war front, global supplies of the rare earth element yttrium are running dangerously low due to Chinese export restrictions. That is sharply escalating costs in aerospace, energy and semiconductor production. Although it can be mined in many places, including Australia, it isn't, and 94% of all mining and processing is in China.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up another +4 bps from yesterday at this time up +6 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is +3 bps positive and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +18 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%, up +6 bps for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.47%, up +3 bps from yesterday, up +14 bps for the week driven by the labour market data which has changed financial market views. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today down -1 bp at 4.19%, up +7 bps for the week.
Wall Street's is holding lower with the S&P6500 up +0.2% in their Friday trade. If it ends there that will be a -0.5% loss for the week. European markets were lower, between Frankfurt's -0.7% and London's -1.1%. Tokyo ended yesterday down -1.8% for a weekly -0.5% retreat. Hong Kong was also down -1.8% yesterday for a weekly +1.0% gain. Shanghai fell -1.0% in Friday trade with a sharp late selloff to be -0.3% lower for the week. Singapore fell -0.7%. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -1.4% for a weekly -1.8% loss, while the NZX50 fell -1.0% on Friday which was also its weekly retreat.
The Fear & Greed index is still in the 'extreme fear' zone as it was last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$4098/oz, and down -US$101 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$93 for the week. Silver has moved sharply back too, now just under US$51.50/oz.
American oil prices have recovered another +US$1 from yesterday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now on US$64.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$59.50 and US$63.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.8 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps as well at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.4, up +20 bps from yesterday, up +60 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,780 and down another -5.2% from yesterday. That is its lowest since May 2025 and down -6.2% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.
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16 Comments
CBA.AX down almost 10% in a week
In Australia, dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, accounted for over 17,500 deaths in 2024 and is now the nation’s leading cause of death, overtaking ischaemic heart diseases,
My dad died of dementia, so did my grandma :-( I try to keep my brain active by reading, learning about AI and other items, going to the gym and playing tennis. Interesting times ahead...
Sorry to hear that Yvil, it is a tough thing to deal with.
We need to bear in mind though that from that link that the median age at death was 88.7. So a big part of the increase in people dying from it is because they are living longer (same as for other "old age" diseases).
(Edit. Also, dementia has only overtaken heart disease because of the massive drop in deaths from that, not from a huge increase in dementia - see age adjusted chart below in the link)
I don’t see the appeal of living that long. 85 would do me. I guess when you get closer you reassess!
I often think having a date of expiry would solve a lot of problems. Say your goodbyes properly, arrange your affairs, simpler retirement planning as the risk of outliving your savings reduces massively.
Big societal benefits too in reducing the huge health spending that typically occurs in the last year or two of someone's life. Lots spent on eeking out that last marginal year of poor quality lifespan.
Not sure such a policy would be great for me as shareholder of a couple of retirement companies and heartland bank though.
Forestalling one way nature sends us off will invariably lead to another way. A lot of people say they would rather go quickly with their boots on and heart disease fits that bill. This has been recognised as a problem for some time. In some Artic societies elderly folk would wander off into the snow for a peaceful death (dementia sufferers often wander off and die of hypothermia in NZ), others would stake themselves to the ground to die in one last battle, other societies performed ritual sacrifice of the elderly and possibly even cannibalism. Today, a few countries permit voluntary euthanasia. My wife has told me she will choose euthanasia as she cannot bear the thought of being bedridden and having to listen to my health advice.
Triboulet the famed court jester to the French court found instant strife when he patted the backside of his monarch and the attempt to diffuse this by claiming he had meant instead to have patted that of the Queen resulted in a death sentence. The King though allowed Triboulet the decision as to the means of his death to which he replied he would like to die of old age. The King was laughing so much he could hardly speak, but eventually ,commuted the death sentence to exile.
According to Jean Marot, historiographer of Louis XII, Triboulet was "as wise at thirty as the day he was born".
Bitcoin down because gold/silver are now better bubbles?
Or is it that Bitcoin is a proper store of value and hasn’t changed, it’s just that fiat has gone up in value?
Ha - better bubbles, maybe. I think that Bitcoin got a good head start on g&s for 15 years(?) while g&s were managed by TPTB. In the last 4-5 years the demand for physical g has increased (initially by the BRICS central banks etc) and TPTB have been in some sort of managed retreat with these prices in the futures markets. Going forward I think g&s has some catching up to do relative to bitcoin. Anywho take that with a grain of salt...
The following article is interesting take on current (particularly the US) markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breaking-burry
I’ve been around markets long enough to believe that short sellers are generally more objectively right than most investors. They called Enron a fraud when investment banks were telling people to buy it, they blew the whistle on Madoff before he collapsed and they warned repeatedly about 2008 on national television before the entire global economy nearly collapsed.
But market dynamics know nothing of objectivity anymore. They have become a rigged, bloated, algorithm-warped humiliation ritual masquerading as a market — a parody of what price discovery used to be.
Or is it that Bitcoin is a proper store of value and hasn’t changed
A store of value is a physiological assumption who's value waxes and wanes with the set of beliefs of the people who share the assumption.
There's certainly nothing mathematical about it, something like gold shouldnt have price movements of the nature it's had this year.
something like gold shouldnt have price movements of the nature it's had this year.
But the price did move as you didn't expect P, regardless if you understand why. Most Aotearoans were not positioned to benefit. In many ways 2025 has been historic and the real money to be made was in gold mining stocks.
Don't just cling to the Ponzi and think that nothing in the world matters - this is a problem Aotearoa and Aotearoans must learn to deal with. It's myopic and broken. Even looking at the Ponzi-related stocks like Ryman Healthcare, you can see the share price has fallen approximately 82% from its all-time high in 2021. Yet everyone is still trapped in some kind of hopium trance that the Ponzi is going to rip harder and higher than ever.
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But the price did move as you didn't expect P
I said a while ago this is a period of much repricing. What, when and by how much, I wouldn't pretend to predict.
I've deemed the best option is to increase revenue and get in a good cash position.
There's a few ways to get wealthy and yours has much lower odds. We can reconvene in the future and see if that's changed.
It looks like bitcoin's four-year price cycles are still repeating like clockwork.
Maybe. However, the market structure has fundamentally changed now. Market momentum is not driven so much by the mighty geeks in their basements. Remember that the halving thesis only really took off last cycle based on the previous two cycles - 2013-2014 was really a handful of players.
Anyway, 80% drawdown takes us to USD24K.
I'm a bit over the new wave of BTC evangelists. They're coming out of the woodwork everywhere, but many of them just spin the same narrative as each other. It's a circle jerk. They're all trying to monetize YouTube and position themselves as gurus. Very Gold Coast behavior. Closer to home, Darcy Ungaro is always a balanced and more pragmatic voice on ratty.
"Trump suggests 50year portable mortgages"
What could possibly go wrong...yet another way to stoke the property ponzi
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360887275/50-year-mortgage-what-trum…
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