Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.
But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear how it will affect fixed home loan rates. After that, we will get the local consumer and business sentiment updates.
In Australia, the key data release this week will be Wednesday's monthly CPI data for October, expected to dip from 3.5% to 3.3%.
Elsewhere there will be a lot of data from the US early in the week as they clear the decks with shutdown-delayed data before they go on their four-day Thanksgiving weekend break. Other countries will be releasing GDP and inflation data too.
In China, attention will turn to October industrial profits and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for November. In Japan, markets will focus on October labour and industrial production data. In India, GDP figures are expected to show that the economy grew at a slightly slower pace in July to September 2025, though most analysts still anticipate growth above 7%. The Bank of Korea will review its policy rate too but no change is expected.
Over the weekend, China reported that its foreign direct investment inflows were still struggling in October, but they were at least positive in the month. They rose marginally more in the October 2025 month than in the weak October 2024 month. For all of 2025 so far, these flows are still -10% lower than the same period last year.
In India, their very strong economic activity expansion eased in November, but only slightly and is still rocketing along at a very fast pace in both their services and factory sectors. But of note here is that price pressures are easing.
Japanese exports came in stronger in October than expected, up +3.6% from a year ago when a +1% rise was anticipated. That dovetails into a better than expected 'flash' November factory PMI for Japan - but it isn't yet quite at the expansion level. But their 'flash' services PMI certainly is and it expanded faster in October than expected.
And the Bank of Japan is close to raising their policy interest rate above the current 0.5% when they next meet on December 18, 2025. If not then, then in the January meeting.
In Europe, ratings agency Moody's has upgraded Italy’s sovereign rating one notch to “Baa2” (ie BBB) and revised its outlook from positive to stable. They said Italy's consistent track record of political and policy stability has allowed their first upgrade in 23 years.
In the US, the S&P Global factory PMI dipped but is still reporting an expansion (51.9). Their services sector expanded faster to a moderate level (55.0), and this was better than expected. Of concern however is that these surveys report input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting its fastest rate for three years. Of course, tariff-taxes were the predominant reason cited. It may seem unlikely there would be a rate cut on December 11 (NZT) when the Fed next meets, but one important Fed member does still see a cut possibility.
Business activity might be expanding, but American consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey confirms it is now at record lows. The final November survey reports consumers are very frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. The spoils of expansion and success are accruing to a very few which is building a toxic divide there. Holiday weekend retail sales data will tell us a lot about how most American consumers are feeling about the lead-in to 2026.
On the trade front, it appears the much-heralded resumption of soybean purchases by China from the US, isn't happening apart from token trades.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, down -8 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +55 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -1 bp and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +11 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.82%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.47%, up +1 bp from Saturday, down -1 bp for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.31%, unchanged from Friday, up +12 bps for the week.
The price of gold will start today at US$4064/oz, and down -US$20 from Saturday. But down -US$34 for the week.
American oil prices have largely held from Saturday to be just on US$58/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62.50/bbl. These are both down -US$2 for the week.
The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from Saturday but down -70 bps for the week. So far in November it has devalued by -2.3%. Against the Aussie we are holding at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9, little-changed from Saturday, but down -50 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,576 and up +2.3% from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$95,780 so it is down -9.9% since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.
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22 Comments
And Trump is persisting trying to throw Ukraine under the bus! Europe should be worried. It seems the proposed peace plan is Putin's wish list and nothing for Ukraine. And of course Trump is lying to justify his position.
Trump is going to lean on whoever he can to end the war and score a peace prize.
Europe are pretty much already on their own. The US are effectively just an arms dealer in this now.
There are some fish hooks in the deal for Russia though. For instance, they won't get possession of land they've claimed, but don't currently hold. And Russia is going to have issues reverting back to a non-war economy.
There's some serious back-peddling now in Trump Admin, but the European leaders are very concerned and well they should be.
The amazing thing though is how impervious Trump and his team are to any form of feedback.
In the meantime Marjorie Taylor Greene is a warning flag to all republicans. She had a reputation as a rabid Trump supporter, but the minute she mentioned the Epstein files Trump threw her under the bus. A part of her pushback was needed; the description of what a "traitor" really is, but her past support of trump and the lengths she was prepared to go to in that will have irreparably damaged her reputation and credibility. other Republicans should be paying attention to what the consequences are for supporting Trump.
Perhaps after all, there is hope?
The peace prize is secondary to Trump....opportunity for graft is miles in front.
Churchill is said to have said something like - you can count on America to get it right, after they have tried everything else. Don’t know that that is actually right though is it.
Do you mean keep trying until something works?
Not sure Trump is capable of coherent analysis, but he's certainly persistent!
May have this wrong but believe this quote arose from Operation Cobra, the massive concentrated aerial bombing of an area of the German lines in Normandy that catalysed the break through. Quite a few American casualties too though, including a general.
Bombing in those days was a little hit and miss. By todays standards more miss than hit. Precision bombing was just in the beginning stages of being developed without the level of technology to make it effective. that didn't really happen until the closing stages of Viet Nam, even then it was still somewhat sketchy. Even today bombs and missiles can malfunction, but real precision can be achieved as demonstrated by the B2s hitting the Iranian chemical weapons storage sites.
Yes, although there were a few impressive exceptions during WW2; eg the RAF hit the German battleship Tirpitz in a Norwegian Fiord from 5000m with a tallboy bomb and achieved a couple of near misses as well.
I wonder what black Friday sales numbers look like?
" If this is employment law, the law needs to change"
https://www.nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/opinion/if-this-is-em…
Within the core of it I suggest all the real benefits accrued to Uber leaving bugger all for the drivers, who were using their own vehicles.
I am curious though how much of a fare the drivers actually got. Uber was supposed to be a 'Ride Share' service, but in the end it looks more like a taxi service to me. I don't know enough about how it works, but what I've heard Uber was taking too much of the charge.
Edit a quick check of Google AI indicates Uber takes between 25% and over 50%. A bit too greedy it seems.
Long overdue. Caveat emptor.
Tend to agree, but the risks have to be known. Christchurch's earthquake risk was not understood, and I would suggest that goes for almost everywhere. Insurance by design tends to treat 'low risk' as 'no risk' even though there will be a component loaded into the premium for it.
I think it was understood but it was an inconvenient risk so it was largely ignored.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4755612/Docume…
Even after the Sept 2010 earthquake there were loud calls for the CBD to be "open for business"
Two bits; first the documentary talks about the effects of an earthquake, but those effects result above a level of severity. With only minor ones occurring officials will be likely to dismiss the likelihood as minimal resulting in the 'no risk' attitude. And Christchurch exemplifies exactly the consequences of those attitudes. Christchurch will have also informed engineers to a much higher degree of the effects of such an earthquake. If memory serves, I recall the discussion of the levels of movement that occurred and commentary that it was extremely high and fast, vertically as well as laterally, making the type of movement quite rare. Easy to dismiss as 'low to no risk'.
There's a lot of vested interests and general inertia. They just spent $300m on an ArchivesNZ building on dodgy land in central Wgtn. It's the site of the "new" Defence HQ that only lasted a few years before the Kaikoura earthquake destroyed it. Could easily have been built in Palmerston North or Hamilton for much cheaper. And unfortunately I really don't think it's gonna survive long anyway
The Canterbury earthquake sequences exposed a nasty surprise to many homeowners in that if your land was declared “red” uninhabitable but your house was only lightly damaged your insurance covered only the cost of repairing that damage. That was why the government was forced to step in with purchases based on the rateable value. These of course were then out of date and unreliable meaning some gat a windfall, others a loss. As far as I know that anomaly has not been rectified?
FG. Yes, insurance covered only the actual cost of repairing, not the land remediation required to effect those repairs but the shortfall created wasn't the primary reason for the govt red zone buy out scheme. This was mostly due to the unviability of council meeting its legal obligations to restore roading and services following land elevation reductions, lateral spread etc. Some are citing the ChCh RZ buyout as precedent generating in respect of flood prone communities elsewhere in NZ but the circumstances are not equivalent.
Just wait for the roars as many areas get zoned out of insurance, property values drop as many areas become less desirable, and some will have a lot less equity than they may have leveraged to use elsewhere. What does one do when they have a mortgage and suddenly cannot get insurance on their property, a key requisite to keep said mortgage?
It'll be interesting to see the wider impact of this given how much our economy relies on the price of housing and leveraged debt for say small businesses.
Niall Ferguson on the end of the Ukraine war.
Ferguson highlighted Russia's military spending over 7% of GDP, a budget deficit of 2.5%, public debt at just 14% of GDP, and real wages up 22% since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Oil and gas still drive a third of revenues through a shadow fleet to buyers like China and India, while unemployment nears zero and retail sales have climbed 28%.
Recent data confirms much of this strength, though growth is slowing to 1% in 2025 amid high interest rates and inflation near 7%, prompting questions about the sanctions' impact three years on.
Sanctions have failed....while the EU economies remain basket cases. Ferguson argues that economic sanctions need to be harder to continue the war (not end the war). But as we've seen, India / China and the Global South are still customers for Russian resources. And countries like Aussie are just virtue signaling hypocrites as they've never stopped buying Russian oil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-n9OTrkfoBg
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