Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.
First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of high prices driven by tariff-taxes, and are hitting the streets mainly in search of bargains and with stricter budgets. The recoil that "everything is more expensive" comes as other surveys show Americans refuse to dip into savings to pay for holiday shopping. That is leaving many observers suspecting this year's holiday sales volumes may be stunted.
And local manufacturers are finding that retailers are not ordering like they used to.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas factory survey retreated in November (to -10.4, from -5 in October), a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. Interestingly, outlook views worsened even though they reported a modest rise in new orders. Cost pressures rose.
Meanwhile, Canada's manufacturing sales data for October turned negative, although not as negative as expected. This comes after an unexpectedly upbeat September, so more of a settling than a decline.
Across the Pacific in Singapore, they are getting another whiff of CPI inflation. Their rate climbed to 1.2% in October from a year ago, from 0.7% in September and the highest level since January. Food prices rose the most in six months.
And new information from China's recently adopted 5-Year Plan, is helpful in put Beijing's influence on the giant Chinese economy in perspective. There are calls for more central control of the economy by Beijing, because they provide only about 15% of all budgeted public expenditure, the rest from provincial and local government. Some want that to rise to 40%. For perspective, the OECD average is 60% from central government.
In Australia, they will implement age-restrictions for social media platforms on December 10, almost all of them American-owned and all enabling unrestricted criminal communications that also enable users to bully and exploit minors (Americans regards that as 'free speech'). It is a move that is being watched by many countries, the latest being Malaysia. So far, no American operator has said it will obey Australian law in Australia.
On the geopolitical trade front, China has made some more soybean purchases, but relatively minor ones. It does keep the Americans interested, but so far in the 2025/26 season they have bought about 12% of their trade-deal agreement level.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -2 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now +10 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.82%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.45%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.31%, unchanged from yesterday.
Wall Street has started its week strongly with the S&P500 up +1.6% and more than the weekend futures market signaled, and all about Big Tech. European markets started their week mixed with London down -0.1% but Frankfurt up +0.7%. Tokyo was closed for a national holiday yesterday. Hong Kong rose +2.0% in Monday trade but Shanghai ended unchanged. Singapore was up +0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Monday trade up +1.3%. The NZX50 ended up a more modest +0.6%.
The price of gold will start today at US$4096/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.
American oil prices have largely held from yesterday to be just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is holding at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also holding at just under 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8, and down a bit less than -10 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,268 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.
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1 Comments
Shane Jones should be made to resign.
Moral fortitude of a dead weasel.
Mind you, some would-be pretenders to the throne, haven't much better track-records...
It used to be that politicians had the interests of the people at heart. Now, they have the interests of vested interests at heart. If you can call that 'heart'.
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