Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news all eyes on on North American holiday shopping activity. Early reports are that crowd levels are pretty ordinary, but that online shopping activity is stronger.
But first today, Canada released its September GDP growth outcome and its forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.
Japanese retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.
In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an expected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.
In India, their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28% to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.
In Europe, the ECB's survey of consumer inflation expectations for October showed median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in September. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5%, as were inflation expectations for five years ahead, which remained steady at 2.2%. Actual current Eurozone inflation is running at 2.1%. In Germany, their CPI inflation rate is 2.6% (on the harmonised basis).
Global passenger air travel is rising, and fast. It was up +6.6% in October. Domestic travel in Australia was up +3.8%. International air travel was up +8.5% on the same basis, with Asia/Pacific up +10.9%. The weakest region is North America, but at least it isn't shrinking any more. Meanwhile, air cargo growth hit a new record high in October, up +4.1% from a year ago, with international volumes up +4.8% and Asia/Pacific volumes up +8.3%. But North American volumes are actually shrinking, down -2.7%.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02% with US markets closed early and that is down -5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -1 bp and the 3 mth-10yr curve is back positive at +3 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.83%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.53%, up +4 bps from yesterday, up +7 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.39%, up +8 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street had a limited session on Wall Street in Friday trade, with the S&P500 ending up +0.5% on the day, up +4.5% for the week. European markets were all up +0.3% overnight. Tokyo ended its Friday up +0.2% yesterday, up +2.0% for the week. Hong Kong was down -0.3% in Thursday trade but up +1.6% for its week while Shanghai ended up +0.3% for a weekly +1.0% rise. Singapore firmed +0.3%. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade unchanged for a weekly gain of +1.4% while the NZX50 was up +0.4% on Friday, up +0.5% for the week.
The Fear & Greed index has remained in the 'extreme fear' zone as it was last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$4211/oz, and up +US$66 from yesterday. And that is a +US$127/oz rise for the week, or +3.1%.
Silver has surged overnight to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. An overnight Comex outage didn't help either.
American oil prices have risen another +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.
The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.3 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are unchanged overnight at just over 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, and up +10 bps from yesterday, up +110 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,495 and down -1.1% from yesterday. But it is up +6.9% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.
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11 Comments
So this morning one of my banking apps wanted to change a whole bunch of settings. In order to keep me safe from scammers, it wanted to track my physical movements, all other apps installs, phone records, etc.
Yous can take a jump
BNZ sent me a similar note a couple of days ago. If I didn't agree their only "alternatives" were phone (call) or branch banking.
I've mentioned before that nowadays banks make no realistic provision for maintaining adequate services to elderly, dependent/unsupported & / or without smartphones (2 factor id etc)
We work for them silly.
I just didn't allow the app access and it kept working. For now.
Yes, very hard on the elderly or not technically savvy. Helping a relly the the other day and you now can't use ASB POLI without the phone app.
I wonder how all the wokesters will feel about sending all of their biometric data to Israel for safekeeping.
That silver comex “outage” was no coincidence. Manipulation at its most obvious.
Yes the "power issue" was actually nothing electricity related.
- It was them losing the pricing control power.....
Silver is on steroids! Biggest one day price move???
Longish update from Alasdair Macleod, possibly before market close, only for the PM followers…
During Thanksgiving week (US markets closed on Thursday) the bullish running has been made in Asia. In European trade this morning, gold was $4,173, up $90 from last Friday’s close. Silver at $53.85, up $3.87 on the same time scale was making the running. Overnight in Shanghai, spot silver spiked as high as $55.13 surpassing previous highs, and the February future closed at $56.
The situation is complicated by Comex trading halted overnight, it is said due to cooling issues at a data centre. It may or may not have contributed to silver spiking higher. But the real problem in markets is an acute shortage of deliverable silver.
So far this year, 12,834 tonnes have been stood for delivery. As a source of silver bullion, Comex exceeds the combined output of Mexica, China, Peru, and possibly Chile — the world’s four largest producers. We don’t know how much of this is no longer available in the form of market liquidity, but with liquidity clearly stretched it will require higher prices, probably far higher to find out.
Particularly since the beginning of this year, while silver has been rising open interest has declined. In a reversal of normal supply and demand relationships as the price rises, selling dries up. Normally, we look at speculator activity on the buy side to drive prices. But instead, there is a growing reluctance of sellers to supply additional futures contracts to buyers. That is why speculator interest is declining presumably with quotes widening, despite an obvious bullish momentum which normally attracts hedge fund interest.
The problem is not confined to Comex, with persistent backwardations between London spot and Comex futures, which have only disappeared since the March contract has become active. An additional difficulty for New York and London is that demand is increasing in China, with silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closing at $56 for the February contract while bullion stocks in the SGE and SHFE have declined to dangerously low levels. SHFE open interest and volumes are telling the same story as western paper markets, both of which still appear relatively subdued despite a soaring silver price:
Normal supply and demand analysis inadequately explains the situation in silver. After years of price suppression, evidenced by global supply deficits relative to increasing industrial demand, there is a dawning of the consequences. Worse for industrial users long accustomed to cheap supplies, silver has the characteristics of a Giffen good, where a rising price creates further scarcity: the scarcity being the “investor category”, in the Silver Institute’s annual surveys no longer prepared to cover supply deficits from industrial demand.
There is a similar situation in gold, as the next chart of the price and Comex open interest demonstrates:
There have been three phases of the relationship. As the price rallied in the first quarter, speculative interest boomed. That was when it was thought that the newly elected President Trump would impose trade tariffs on US gold imports. Gold then consolidated for about five months while speculative interest declined, only picking up briefly when gold broke out above its consolidation phase. But in late-September, open interest began to decline despite a rising price.
Clearly, gold is not being driven by speculators, but by the paper gold establishment’s attempts not to get caught short.
Gold is a far larger market than silver, but like silver it looks like becoming a Giffen good, as a rising price deters selling and at the margin attracts buyers who are missing out. What it tells us about the relationship between metallic money and fiat currencies is ringing alarm bells. But that topic is beyond a precious metals market analysis.
Global passenger air travel is rising, and fast
not if you are booked on an A320
Nothing wrong with the machine, it’s just the computer. Boy did I often hear that remark when on retirement I illadvisedly bought a beautiful but temperamental 1994 Jaguar XJ6.
well radiation impact sensors is a hardening issue not a software issue...... something is not being shielded enough, probably not one cockroach here...
There will be a review of all radiation vulnerable components and a re-accessment of shielding
This article probably doesn't give the full story..
Airbus warned Friday that "intense solar radiation" may have corrupted critical flight data in an incident involving an A320 narrow-body aircraft. While the company did not disclose which flight was affected, it was likely last month's JetBlue Flight 1230, which suddenly dropped in altitude while en route from Newark to Cancun.
Airbus issued an Alert Operators Transmission to all airlines operating A320 Family aircraft, warning that an urgent fix is required.
The company believes this is the first time this specific problem has emerged in its fleet and says it has "proactively worked with aviation authorities… keeping safety as our number one and overriding priority," according to CNN.
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