Canada, Japan, South Korea and India all post generally upbeat data while eyes turn to US holiday retail impulse; air travel and air cargo rise; UST 10yr at 4.02%; gold rises, silver surges and oil firmish; NZ$1 = 57.3 USc; TWI-5 = 62

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news all eyes on on North American holiday shopping activity. Early reports are that crowd levels are pretty ordinary, but that online shopping activity is stronger.

But first today, Canada released its September GDP growth outcome and its forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.

Japanese retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.

In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an expected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.

In India, their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28% to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.

In Europe, the ECB's survey of consumer inflation expectations for October showed median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in September. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5%, as were inflation expectations for five years ahead, which remained steady at 2.2%. Actual current Eurozone inflation is running at 2.1%. In Germany, their CPI inflation rate is 2.6% (on the harmonised basis).

Global passenger air travel is rising, and fast. It was up +6.6% in October. Domestic travel in Australia was up +3.8%. International air travel was up +8.5% on the same basis, with Asia/Pacific up +10.9%. The weakest region is North America, but at least it isn't shrinking any more. Meanwhile, air cargo growth hit a new record high in October, up +4.1% from a year ago, with international volumes up +4.8% and Asia/Pacific volumes up +8.3%. But North American volumes are actually shrinking, down -2.7%.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02% with US markets closed early and that is down -5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -1 bp and the 3 mth-10yr curve is back positive at +3 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.83%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.53%, up +4 bps from yesterday, up +7 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.39%, up +8 bps from a week ago.

Wall Street had a limited session on Wall Street in Friday trade, with the S&P500 ending up +0.5% on the day, up +4.5% for the week. European markets were all up +0.3% overnight. Tokyo ended its Friday up +0.2% yesterday, up +2.0% for the week. Hong Kong was down -0.3% in Thursday trade but up +1.6% for its week while Shanghai ended up +0.3% for a weekly +1.0% rise. Singapore firmed +0.3%. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade unchanged for a weekly gain of +1.4% while the NZX50 was up +0.4% on Friday, up +0.5% for the week.

The Fear & Greed index has remained in the 'extreme fear' zone as it was last week.

The price of gold will start today at US$4211/oz, and up +US$66 from yesterday. And that is a +US$127/oz rise for the week, or +3.1%.

Silver has surged overnight to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. An overnight Comex outage didn't help either.

American oil prices have risen another +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.

The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.3 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are unchanged overnight at just over 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, and up +10 bps from yesterday, up +110 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,495 and down -1.1% from yesterday. But it is up +6.9% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».