Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.
Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and the Aussies will release the Q3-2025 GDP growth rate, expected to be +2.2% from a year ago.
In the US, there will be more catch-up official data releases but their non-farm payroll data for November has been delayed until mid-December now. However ADP will release its new weekly update and the Challenger job cut report will still come out on time. There will be PMIs for the US and no-one expects much change in any of this. Of special interest will be the end-of-week release of the UofM sentiment survey. Few see any improvement there either with it hovering around record lows.
Elsewhere there will be a raft of PMI and trade and inflation releases from many countries. And the Indian central bank meets and is widely expected to cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% despite the surging growth. Fast-falling food prices means inflation is seen as under control there.
Over the weekend India said their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate rise since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28%, to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.
China said its official November PMIs were weaker and their tepid expansion has turned into a general but small contraction. The main change was for their services sector, shrinking for the first time in three years and joining the ongoing small contraction in their factory sector. That factory sector has now contracted for eight straight months. Both measures would be a lot worse if they didn't have deflation in their input costs. The private S&PGlobal version isn't expected to vary much from that when it is released later today, although it may be on the more positive side. Either way, these indicators are not pointing to an economy expanding like their GDP claims.
Japan said retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.
In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an unexpected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.
In Canada, they released their September GDP growth outcome over the weekend and their forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.
Early reports of US retail trade over the weekend seem positive, but heavily focused online.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02%, unchanged from Saturday but down -5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by -1 bp and the 3 mth-10yr curve is back positive at +5 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding higher at 1.83%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.53%, unchanged from Saturday, up +7 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.39%, up +8 bps from a week ago.
The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$7 from Saturday. And that is a +US$134/oz rise for the week, or +3.2%.
Silver surged in Friday US trade to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. A Comex outage in the US didn't help either.
American oil prices are unchanged from Saturday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.
The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.4 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are little-changed overnight at just on 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, and essentially unchanged from Saturday, up +110 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,838 and up +1.5% from Saturday. And it is up +6.9% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however, at just on +/- 0.9%.
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22 Comments
Either way, these indicators are not pointing to an economy expanding like their GDP claims.
About that other indicator, running 52% below replacement.
"China’s fertility rate has fallen to one, continuing a long decline that began before and continued after the one-child policy."
https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/chinas-fertility-rate-has-fall…
"After four decades of selectively aborting female fetuses, China is now confronted with numerous challenging demographic and public policy questions that have arisen from sex-selective induced abortions and the subsequent phenomenon of missing girls, which has led to an imbalanced population sex structure and a male marriage squeeze, and affected China’s population trajectory in the long term."
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12963-025-00368-y#Fig1
The scourge of unintended consequences due to politicians using their egos rather than their brains and not thinking through the effects of their policies. Happens everywhere, but few countries if any, have tried population control measures like the Chinese did under Mao. The consequences will reverberate through generations.
I think sometimes China's fertility policy gets over estimated though. China's East Asian cousins have experienced the same precipitous drop off in fertility as they've developed and urbanized. The South Koreans maybe worse.
Where they might have an issue is with a decent population of low opportunity single males who can't attract a partner.
People underestimate the impact of birth control pill
Who'd have thought when you allow women to be in control of their fertility
And then funnel them all to cities, where they have more opportunities and having kids is a liability.
They'd abandon motherhood.
That said though, the current decrease in childbirth is down to people not really hooking up in the first place.
That said though, the current decrease in childbirth is down to people not really hooking up in the first place.
There's definitely a harder time for people to meet each other if they don't take the initiative to put themselves out there, and society has catered to being able to never leave the home and use online platforms, video games to plug peoples' social needs.
From a mid-30's perspective, many I know chose not to have kids as they see what others go through and see the cost in effort and money greater than the reward. Others would struggle to maintain their mortgages losing one income and hence can't afford to have kids, or they see the world has too many people already and are content with being the cool aunt/uncle to others children.
The biological imperative is to mate and, in the Human case, share the raising of slow-developing young.
That requires the ability to demonstrate nest-building capabilities, which we've morphed into 'buying'. Strike those who cannot afford, off your partner list.
No ability to establish a nest?
Don't procreate.
Big picture, we're overpopulated and reacting to same.
Unfortunately not having a nest (or any ability to self support) doesn’t stop our most prolific and feral popn from breeding up large.
Unfortunately not having a nest (or any ability to self support) doesn’t stop our most prolific and feral popn from breeding up large.
Maybe they will replace people with robots?
China to deploy battery-swapping humanoid robots for patrols along Vietnam border
it's a little bit Terminator....
There are not enough people left in China to repay China's debt levels. They are also selling US Treasuries, interesting times.
It's probably easier for them to clone people than make humanoid robots. And cheaper.
Chicago sidewalks are host to delivery robots from two companies, and hundreds of residents are so opposed, they’ve signed a petition to stop them.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/nov/28/chicagoans-call-stop-r…
I am somewhat surprised that people are just accepting AI....
They are like virtual immigrants replacing people, yet the population seems to ignore this...
I find the opposite, there's a huge amount of uncertainty and hysteria about everyone becoming redundant.
I suggest a fight back will occur, like a civil war between humans and AI
More like humans who control AI vs humans displaced by it, AI will fight on the obvious side, AI will lose if the war is fought soon, the longer we wait the less chance of winning. AI is still very vulnerable
I see it more as the greatest dumbing down of our species as people come to rely on it instead of logical and critical thought. I already see people who come up against a question and instantly pump it into chatGPT, then take the answer as gospel without ever thinking if there could be a flaw.
Profile, do you have an actual male/female population split for China ? That would be a useful metric to assess how bad the imbalance actually is.
https://x.com/MoreBirths/article/1910780131318374524/media/191074355451…
China has vast regions with fertility comparable to South Korea and this includes the most economically powerful regions. The mighty industrial powerhouse of Shanghai recently had a fertility of just 0.61, meaning that 100 residents of reproductive age in Shanghai can expect just around eight grandchildren between them.
https://x.com/MoreBirths/article/1910780131318374524/media/191073672587…
https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1910780131318374524
Its a disaster for China, as most economies transform into service based at this point, but robots/AI only consume power.
Movies, pizza, fashion, art even media need human eyeballs etc
For a long time I have thought that the USA has an advantage here, as mexicans etc want to cross the boarder, but few want to become chinese. even at $10 usd an hour picking fruit its better then china. We can even see this in nationality and first language of many USA elected reps.
The average hourly wage for fruit picking in the United States varies based on experience and location. Here are some key points:
- The average hourly rate is approximately $24.
- Entry-level fruit pickers earn around $11 per hour.
- Hourly wages can range from $13 to $20 depending on the state and crop.
- Some fruit pickers may earn as low as $10.00 per hour.
These figures indicate that fruit picking jobs can offer decent pay, but earnings can vary significantly based on various factors.
"Nothing like this has happened in human history. A combination of cultural preferences, government decree and modern medical technology in the world’s two largest countries has created a gender imbalance on a continental scale. Men outnumber women by 70 million in China and India.
The consequences of having too many men, now coming of age, are far-reaching: Beyond an epidemic of loneliness, the imbalance distorts labor markets, drives up savings rates in China and drives down consumption, artificially inflates certain property values, and parallels increases in violent crime, trafficking or prostitution in a growing number of locations."
Lets not forget there are a lot of advantages in a lower population.
Yet another discussion about our falling productivity but no real answers about what to do.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/580462/why-are-we-all-paid-close-to…
That sums up the issues well though.
It's worth reading, The alternative is to try to become more sustainable vs more productive via continual growth...
It was nothing we did other than to import deflation
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