Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the global economic expansion is tailing off as we come to the end of 2025.
First in the US, we can report that new orders in their factory sector are falling. That is a key factor that has driven the closely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI lower, for a ninth consecutive month, and falling at a faster pace. Survey respondents cite problems with the tariff-taxes, and "trade confusion". And they report high price pressure, and rising. The November result is below the deterioration expected. It's a result that has cast a pall over Wall Street today.
But the ISM report is only one perspective. The rival S&PGlobal factory PMI reported a November expansion, even a modest rise in new orders. But it also noted that a lot of this 'positive activity' is related to inventory building which won't be sustainable without final customer demand. Financial markets seemed to ignore this alternate PMI.
The Canadian factory PMi wasn't positive either for November which reported a marginal contraction. Interestingly, it also reported lower inflation pressures.
These two North American factory PMIs feed into a global report that has overall output and new orders rising at slower rates but business optimism rising to a five-month high.
In India, their October report for industrial production brought an unexpectedly sharp slowdown, hardly above year-ago levels when +4% year-on-year gains had become the norm for the past two years. We will need to wait for their November result to see if October was just an aberration. They will be hoping so.
In Japan, their central bank governor has been speaking and has hinted that a rate hike at their next meeting on December 19 is a live possibility. (see pages 6 & 7.)
In China, the alternative PMI to the official version has also slipped in a similar way. The S&PGlobal manufacturing sector PMI shows that conditions deteriorated in November, not by a lot, but certainly going the wrong way. There was no growth in new orders.
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for November rose again and is now further above the RBA's 2-3% inflation target range. Interestingly, while this result is higher, it is lower than the official October CPI rate of 3.8%.
After a -2.6% quarter-on-quarter fall in Australian company profits in Q2-2025, they were expected to bounce back in Q3-2025. But in the event they stalled, unchanged, in a disappointing outcome and only +1.1% higher than year-ago levels.
And staying in Australia, the Cotality house price tracking rose +1.0% in November, a slight softening from the +1.1% gain in October. Annual growth lifted to +7.1%, with quarterly gains tracking a +13.2% annualised pace. Sydney and Melbourne are the laggards, indicating that affordability has reached its serviceability limits.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.09%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +56 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +5 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +14 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding higher at 1.83%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.59%, up +6 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.55%, up +5 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has started its week hesitantly, with the S&P500 down -0.2%. Overnight, European markets opened lower by a similar amount, except Frankfurt which fell a full -1.0%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed down -1.9%, Hong Kong was up +0.7%, and that was matched by Shanghai. Singapore closed essentially unchanged. The ASX200 ended its Monday session down -0.6%. The NZX50 ended down -0.3%.
The price of gold will start today at US$4233/oz, and up +US$15 from yesterday. But silver has surged again to a new record high of US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday.
American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$63/bbl. And we should probably also note that natural gas prices are rising and are now at their highest except for the pandemic period.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just under 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,426 and down -7.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high, at just on +/- 4.3%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
33 Comments
Shiny rocks are putting on more gains per day, than the entire NZ Crashing poooperty sector are making in a year.......which is a lossssss, since 2022.
How far will the Gold/Silver gains go, from here?? On track for 5 to 6k gold and $100+ silver in 2026?
The specter of $60 silver is potentially coming this week!!
Miners are going to have massive windfall profits, who would not own them?
Meanwhile, the died in the wool, going down with the ship type, Pooperty investors, are looking at bad, to very bad capital loses into 2026/2027.
So you're more of a "my unproductive investment is gonna outperform your unproductive investment" Gecko, than an actually altruistic Gecko?
Makes sense. Some Geckos eat their young.
Im a simple Gecko, who just believes in the 5000-year-old store of value, not the devaluing toilet paper we currently use.
Also, not a big believer in rentier extraction industrial complex, some here are devoted to - taking as much blood as possible, from the poor tenants.
This isn't really the forum for you. Perhaps head over to the SocialistWorker.
Never heard of your socy forum.
Geckos are likers and winners at capitalism.
Just dont overly extract from the bug population.
Landlords get quite small returns from renting out properties and take significant risks. Tenants appreciate being able to rent a place. It's quite a healthy and not particularly exploitive relationship. If you like capitalism then this shouldn't be a problem.
In fact they may all be Saints one day.....
There are worse candidates.
Landlords made huge returns from owning properties Zackary. Massive.
They did not do it for altruism.
Then it all changed, although some still believe that change has not happened.
No they don't. It's often been discussed on these forums. It's been around 7% per year on average.
That's a very decent return for relatively low risk, with minimal tax needing to be paid.
Utter rubbish! Exploitation through "market rents" as opposed to 'affordable rents' (25 - 30% of the median take home pay). If you apply the market rents then you're nothing but a parasite.
As to returns, you make a business decision to pay what you pay for your assets and what debt you carry, but you bleed your tenants to pay those costs.
It's not socialism. It's aversion to capitalist slavery and entrapment, and for democracy.
25-30% of take home pay for exclusive use of a major asset seems quite reasonable to me. Mortgage interest is often more for young home owners. If I had four lower quartile houses I'd expect it to earn about an average wage after tax and expenses. In recent years governments have pushed up costs for landlords which must inevitably get passed on to the consumer. Tenants get a really good service for what they pay for.
Capitalism is a derogatory term coined by Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809–1865) who also declared "property is theft".
Yet property rights are what really make Western civilization the great institution it is.
Landlords don't "exploit" anyone anymore than banks or supermarkets do.
"Landlords don't "exploit" anyone anymore than banks or supermarkets do." BS! You apply unfair, "market rents" which prevents the young from saving towards owning their own home. In doing that you exploit them and deny them opportunities that they should otherwise be entitled to expect.
"25-30% of take home pay for exclusive use of a major asset seems quite reasonable to me." Are your rentals All less than $400 per week for the whole house? The 'major asset' bit is emotive language to justify your position. Review the quality of your business decisions.
I'd bet they aren't. If that is the case you're a parasite.
Houses aren't major assets? They are to me. They are quite the liability too. Not sure what is wrong with you guys. Maybe seek help. I was a renter once and was very happy to secure a place at market rates.
I suppose you would drop rents then once your mortgage was paid off on your rentals? Seems logical given you have no debt to service and just the maintenance. Oh wait, you probably leveraged to add more debt then cranked the rent for the tenants.
I would keep rents pretty competitive and be generous to good long term tenants. There were long periods in the past when I subsidized renters.
Capitalism in its purest sense involves private ownership of the means of production, in a market economy.
Sitting on shiny rocks isn't really capitalism.
Im a simple Gecko, who just believes in the 5000-year-old store of value, not the devaluing toilet paper we currently use
I'm an idiot-savant painter, who knows enough of the history of the 5000 years to see the folly in using shiny rocks to insulate yourself from change.
When you need a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread, your gold is going to deplete pretty quickly.
"When you need a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread, your gold is going to deplete pretty quickly."
How so Pa1nter ?
2025nov29: 'Bitcoin is now the mirror image of silver. During the month of November while silver surged 16.5%, Bitcoin tanked 17.5%. But silver is up 95% so far in 2025, while Bitcoin is only down 4%. Since silver will likely go much higher, that means its mirror image will likely crash.'
👉https://archive.is/ii666
and if you look for long enough you will find a man's face on mars
Gecko translation: I'm really upset and sour that I missed out on making money in NZ property, but I have bought some gold/silver recently, so please buy some too so that the value of my investment goes up.
The bizarre thing is NZGecko and many like-minded commenters have made large sums from NZ property.
Gecko: "Meanwhile, the died in the wool, going down with the ship type, Pooperty investors, are looking at bad, to very bad capital loses into 2026/2027."
From today's B&T
Prices put in a much stronger performance, with the average selling price increasing to $1,181,829. That's the highest average selling price achieved so far this year, and is up $49,034 (4.3%) from November 2024.
You're like Mary Holm Dr Y. Gold mining stocks appreciated close to 150% for a calendar year, yet people can only think of it as some kind of scam that threatens the beloved Ponzi and the status quo.
Shiny rocks are putting on more gains per day, than the entire NZ Crashing poooperty sector are making in a year.......which is a lossssss, since 2022.
More interestingly, Silver has posted its first 12-month 100%+ gain since 1979 and the highest monthly close in 46 years.. People are not asking why.
What's happening with silver is not independent of the Ponzi IMO. The broken monetary system and the criminality of the investment banks have created the conditions for this to happen. People are looking for scarce assets.
Indeed, perhaps this is what TPTB want, people arguing amongst themselves, rather than focusing on the enablers of inflation and asset bubbles etc.
Yet somehow it gets pigeon holed in the conspiracy theory section.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.