Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.
But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors had expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.
The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a string of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.
There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.
Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.
EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.
In Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.
Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +58 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +9 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +32 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is +2 bps higher at 1.85%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.69%, up +7 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.41%, down -2 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has started its Thursday with the S&P500 little-changed. Overnight, European markets were all up, between London's +0.2% and Frankfurt's +0.8%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up +1.1, Hong Kong was up a very strong +2.3%, but Shanghai ended down -0.1%. Singapore closed down -0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session up +0.3%. The NZX50 ended down -0.5%.
The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.
American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are down -10 bps at just under 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and little-changed from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.
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14 Comments
Not a Trump fan but these tariffs seem like a good idea. Their economy isn’t too bad and the income from tariffs is pretty handy, almost like a GST but only on the foreign crap.
Yet the actual legality of them is highly uncertain. Apart from Lincoln during the civil war no US President has wielded such individual power as Trump. Just one man, one decision and it is set in motion. The founding fathers drew up the Constitution and the operative powers of the Congress and Senate to precisely prevent such behaviour. Trump however is running and gunning the whole damn shooting box, unchecked. Should the Supreme Court determine the tariffs have been imposed illegally Trump can simply ignore that. After all the Supreme Court has given him immunity, to do whatever he wants.
Let’s talk about Fauci and immunity
They already had tariffs, now there’s a few more. Seems weird that of all the crap Trump’s done, tariffs would be the illegal one.
Tariffs that already existed had been ratified, due process through Congress. The Supreme Court is now considering whether or not a President can do so as well by means of an executive order or whatever. There is precedent, President Nixon acted similarly in 1971.
Well, they're certainly not the only illegal thing, he is a convinced felon after all.
Tariffs can be done in a legal way, for sure. Trump decided to take a short cut that allows him more personal control. Much easier to reach 'deals' with other countries then.
"As President Trump blurs the lines between politics and business — and threatens steep tariffs on trade partners — governments feel compelled to favor Trump-related projects."
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/world/asia/trump-vietnam-golf-projec…
Convicted fallen prey (my habitual problem) to auto word there? Still convinced works, so too would convincing.
Why is he backtracking on many tariffs that are directly affecting his voting base then if its a good idea?
It’s never going to be popular to increase government revenue, but they can’t keep borrowing forever.
US to sell nuclear subs to South Korea , now Japan and possible Taiwan will want
massive industrial effort to build this infrastructure up
Yes the Sth Korean venture provides a gateway for Japan to follow suit. Bearing in mind Japan has considerably increased its defence budget and strategically altered from purely defensive to include offensive capability such as modifying existing carriers from helicopters to jet aircraft. The world is militarily, drawing up fairly definable lines of engagement.
So I’ve noticed prices are rising again. Insurance, diesel seems to have jumped up 20c even though oil and the exchange rate haven’t. Timber build costs. Obviously house rates were up another 10% last month ( for me), supermarket prices. Given Fonterras payout is due February can guarantee we will see a jump in all products sold to farmers Q1. If this retail revival continues we will see anything that’s selling OK pop up as well. Can’t see much of a chance of inflation behaving itself like the RBNZ expects into next year.
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