Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news Trump has got his distraction war, flooding the recent zone of poor news with an adventure he has created. Business eyes will be on how the financial markets react. (Others can watch the politics.)
So far, the equity futures markets have the S&P500 virtually unchanged (+0.1%), the US Treasury 10 year down -8 bps from their Friday close, and the USD (DXY) lower from Friday, but little-changed from a week ago. Oil prices will be closely watched, because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran. So far they are up 3% in off-market weekend reactions. Gold is up modestly so far too, but silver and platinum have jumped sharply, both gaining about +6% and both heading back toward the late-January peaks.
Spreads, or the premium companies must pay over a risk-free US Treasury, are at their highest since November for investment grade companies, and their the highest since December for those with a sub-investment grade rating.
But first, looking ahead this week, there is a raft of second tier data released locally, including some trade, and more importantly mortgage markets data. And we will get the Q4-2025 RBNZ Dashboard data, exposing the winners and losers among the local banks.
In Australia, it will be all about the Q4-2025 GDP, and household spending data this week.
In the US on the economic front, they will have their non-farm payrolls report for February at the end of the week. We will get independent ISM PMIs and retail sales updated too.
In China, data will be relatively light as Beijing insists its news attention is on their next five year plan meetings.
But there will be PMIs out in China, as well as Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Trade data are also scheduled from Indonesia, while inflation figures will be released in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Additionally, the Malaysian central bank is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision.
Over the weekend, the US PPI release shows that inflation has their producer prices firmly in its grip. Year-on-year this measure of industrial inflation wasn't too special at +2.9%, but core PPI was up +3.4% and the jump in January from December of +0.5% grabbed analysts' attention. Tariff-taxes are driving the increases as importers refuse to absorb some of these costs anymore.
Meanwhile some of this also showed up in the Chicago PMI for February. The Chicago Business Barometer was expected to ease lower. Rather it leapt into a strong expansion. It was so different to the data around it on the ground had suggested, it might be wise not to jump to any early conclusions on the gain.
And let's not forget the growing worries about 'cockroaches'. Concerns about the risks of private credit are not going away just because they are overshadowed by geopolitical tensions. In fact, those tensions will bring risk aversion and likely magnify the private credit risks. Investors who want out could trigger something big.
Across the Pacific, Korean exports turned in another gigantic result in February, showing that the extraordinary January was no fluke. Their exports were +29.0% than a year ago at a record US$67.5 bln for the month, and this was even though there were three fewer working days and the Lunar New Year holiday break. It is another extraordinary result. Both the US and China saw imports from Korea rise more than +30% for each.
In China, we should keep an eye on their car industry. They have returned from holiday with a large excess of unsold stock and are responding with promotions that feature heavy discounting. This may trigger a reckoning for many carmakers, large or small. Like their property industry, it could have wide-ranging implications.
And staying in China, according to estimates by China International Capital Corp, roughly ¥75 tln (NZ$18 tln) in household term deposits will mature this year, and most of it had maturities of one year or longer. Most will be reinvested, but with such enormous flows, even small amounts diverted (to say gold, or higher risk/return options) will have very important impacts.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 3.96%, down -6 bps from this time Saturday. The key 2-10 yield curve is holding at +58 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still just on +6 bps (+4 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at just on +27 bps (down -7 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at just on 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 2.12%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.65%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.36%, down -2 bps from Saturday. All benchmark bond yields are likely to move to a risk-off setting when financial markets open today.
The price of gold will start today up +US$93 from yesterday at US$5278/oz. Silver is up +US$5.50 at US$93/oz today. When global markets reopen, it will be unsurprising to see these prices rise sharply.
American oil prices are up almost +US$2 at just on US$67/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl. But when global markets reopen today, expect a sharp rise as well.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from Saturday, still just on 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 84.3 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen as well. Against the euro we are holding at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today basically the same as Saturday, still just on 63.4.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,168 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at just over +/- 2.3%.
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15 Comments
Events this weekend have presented more examples of encoded messaging from the global elites. Occult symbolism is on display. Numerological and celestial timings are orchestrating events on the world stage for all to see.
This weekend:
- The US attacks Iran on the day of a rare celestial event of 6 planets in perfect alignment, called a planetary parade.
- 6 hours was the window for the initial first wave of the Operation Epic Fury strike. It was announced that Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the final (6th) hour of this wave.
- The IRGC retaliates by firing missiles at 6 sovereign nations, none of which had directly attacked Iran.
- This same day Bitcoin crosses the devil’s floor as it hits $66,666 and hovers in the range all day.
Previous examples:
- Jefferey Epstein (supposedly) dies while in a Manhattan Special Housing Unit at 66 years and 6 months of age.
- King Charles coronation takes place 6 months, 6 weeks and 6 days after the Queen’s funeral.
- Prince Andrew became the first UK Royal family member to be arrested in 350 years. 6 police cars arrived at his residence to arrest him on his 66th birthday. His arrest was exactly 666 days after a Royal King’s white horse was seen running loose through London streets covered in blood.
Today was brought to you by the number "6"
A sustained increase in oil prices is our worse case scenario. With the prices of insurance, local govt rates, imported services, etc, all going strong, higher fuel and international airfare prices will send CPI into the late 3s / early 4s both directly and through propogation.
Now, have we learned from the last six times higher oil prices causes a domestic inflation spike? Are we ready with a bufferstock or flexible taxes on diesel? Or, will we rely on the painfully slow, economically damaging, medieval monetarists at RBNZ?
This is NOT a 'distraction war'.
That comment is astounding, given how much has been written here about energy. Just astounding.
The US is commandeering the remaining oil, at a time when the last (and worst; fracking, tar, kerogen) half is all there is. Simon Marks was absolutely on it this morning - but Corin Dann cut across him, showing the same energy ignorance (blind belief in economics - same thing).
We hung on the coattails of prior intrusion/extractions (think; puppet Shah) and have a conscience question to ask of ourselves. Excuses - accusations of pending nuclear capability from a country which has how many nuclear weapons? - need to be seen for what they are. Some of us remember WMD...
Trump is trying to force China to be reliant on Russian oil.
You're giving Trump too much credit PDK. Oil may be minor thought in his one or two brain cells, but the bigger ones are the increasingly pointed questions about his presence in the Epstein files and possible abuse of a minor. He will have a lot of voices whispering in his ears but I suspect the loudest are the disembodied ones that psychologists have special names for.
Do you think these operations are all at the behest of Trump? Or is this driven from behind the scenes? You might be giving Trump too much credit yourself.
It is cranially lazy to fixate on one person.
Ask why he got elected across the US.
Twice.
The social machine that is US consumption, demand ever-more energy. He's trying to deliver. EROEI says he won't succeed with Venezuela (or Alberta) but Russia and Iran are valid energy targets.
Only Trump has the executive power to order it. Beyond that it will be the whispering voices I mentioned.
Actually I just read a stuff article on the attack. turns out MBS of Saudi Arabia has been asking Trump to 'do something' about Iran for a while now. That provides another facet. Iran is definitely a threat to Saudi, arming and funding proxies to attack them. Oil is a part of the picture, but a bigger part is religion and power in the ME politics. Would Saudi get involved now to help move the ground situation along in Iran? There's certainly an opportunity, but it is tainted by significant risk.
As to oil, there seems to be a consensus that the Saudi oil is running out, in the last half of the reserves if you will, so that will be a less important part of that picture. On the other hand a Saudi move now might be to secure Iran's oil fields?
Better post :)
Remember that all those lines 'between countries' were drawn by mostly the Poms, post WW1. The reason? The Great Game (Kipling, wasn't it?). Who get oil wins. Fisher, Churchill, BP - originally Anglo-Persian.
The House of Saud clings to power via bread-and-circuses thanks to oil. That won't last. But the US butters them up for the oil. And won't when it's gone (Ghawar peaked in 1980/81).
And we have to realise that the Sunni/Shia standoff is real to them. We see both as the same but minorly different; they don't share that perspective. Beware the whole of Islam burying its differences; Israel would be history tomorrow.
As it is, our current leaders have aligned us with the biggest thugs on the planet. Irrespective of rules, there are moral codes...
For the record, I did NOT mention Trump.
I wrote: the US....
You responded to the word 'distraction'; distraction from what then? And who in the US do you think can direct such actions? When you choose to stand in front of a target.....
It’s worth noting how closely this aligns with Albert Pike’s 'Third World War' framework.
Whether his 1871 letter is a prophecy or a blueprint, it suggests the goal isn't just the oil. It's using the collision between the West and the Islamic world to trigger a total social and economic collapse.
An emergency OCR cut will be on the table if things get worse me thinks.
We can (attempt to) ignore politics....can we also ignore water?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/15/how-day-zero-water-shorta…
Not sure anything the U.S. or Israel are doing is going to improve this situation.
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