Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news of shrinking employment in the US. The pullbacks are widespread, and ominous.
The US economy shed -92,000 jobs in February at the headline level, the most in four months, following a downwardly revised +126,000 rise in January and much worse than forecasts of a +59,000 gain. From a year ago, payrolls are up +129,000 and that is unusually low. Apart from December's tiny +59,000 year-on-year gain you have to go back to the pandemic (and Trump 1) to fund as weak a rise. It gets worse by broadening the view of all employment, not just payroll employment. That broader view shows overall employment down -391,000 in February from a year ago, the second consecutive shrinkage.
US retail sales inched lower by -0.2% in January from December, slightly less that the expected dip. It was the first decline since October. From a year ago, they are +3.1% higher. Most of this is accounted for by 2.5% CPI core inflation.
In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI surged higher in February, a strong expansion signal, to its best since September 2025, and prior to that its best since July 2024.
In the Persian Gulf, the Qatari oil minister said in the next few days they have to decide whether to declare force majeure, releasing them from obligations to deliver supplies to customers. He said that could drive crude prices to US$150/bbl.
After falling consistently since August, the FAO food price index rose in February, basically tracking similar levels for the start of 2025. But there is wide variation between categories. Meat prices are steady, Dairy prices are falling as is sugar. Dairy prices are now at their lowest since the start of 2024. But vegetable oils are rising, and fast, with cereal prices turning higher too.
Meanwhile, metals prices are rising, led by aluminium's overnight jump, and it is now approaching the heady heights of the pandemic peaks. Copper and zinc have been rising recently too, even nickel and zinc. But iron ore prices are not joining the party.
Also worth noting is the meeting starting on Monday in Jamaica about the regulation of deep sea mining. The International Seabed Authority, the UN-established body will wrestle with ocean governance as governments weigh whether to allow deep sea mining in international waters or impose a global moratorium while science and regulations catch up.
This is interesting. Start at 39:50.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.11%, down -3 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +58 bps (+3 bps). Their 1-5 curve is steeper at just on +15 bps (+1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at just on +41 bps (-3 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is stable at just on 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 2.18%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.89%, up +9 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.52%, up +4 bps from yesterday.
And we should probably note that the Australian 10 year has risen to hits highest level since 2011, and the premium over the equivalent New Zealand government ten year yield is now +37 bps. Inflation differentials are driving this separation.
Wall Street has opened its Friday trade with the S&P500 down -0.8% and falling. There aren't any 'dip' buyers today. Overnight European markets were down between Paris's -0.7% and London's -1.2%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Thursday session up +0.6%. Hong Kong was up +1.7% and Shanghai was up +0.4%. Singapore was unchanged. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -1.0%. And the NZX50 fell -0.7%.
The Fear & Greed index is harder over in the 'fear' zone.
The price of gold will start today up +US$68 from yesterday at US$5144/oz. Silver is up +US$2 at US$84/oz today.
American oil prices are up more than +US$10, up +13.2% in a day, at just under US$90/bbl, while the international Brent price is up a bit less to be now just on US$92/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 84.1 AUc. We are up +30 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps, now just over 62.7.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,268 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
30 Comments
So the RBNZ, have fecked up bigtime again, for not raising rates at the last meeting, when inflation was OUT OF BAND AND HEADING HIGHER!!
The new RBNZ head will look like nothing more than a political hack and well out of her depth. Her last statement will see an moment very soon, like "egg meeting face"
With leading crude oil grades now past USD$90s and world transport costs spiking massively, a major inflation spike is incomming, on an already hot inflation level and read.
Will she need to come out dischevelled and eat the dead rat with an emergency rate hike? Quite possibly.......
.
Chill out puppy, the RBNZ could not foresee Trumps agression on Iran.
Woof woof house hoarder.
A blind mut, could see the very low oil price, as certain and present inflation risk, in an unstable world.
WE WERE OUT OF THE RBNZs OWN BAND AND SHE SAT ON HER OVERPAID HANDS. SHE IS A NATIONAL PARTY HACK.
RBNZ will need to hike and fast.
Inflaton and debt costs about to rip towards new recent highs.
Not very honest to change your post after my reply NZ Gecko. Your time stamp 9:18, my reply 9:13.......
I do correct spelling sometimes, yet substance the same. I don't know what you are meaning?
So the RB should base its monetary policy decisions on a low oil price?
And yet they used their crystal ball to imagine that inflation will come down with their forecast projections….at a time when CPI was already out of band!!!….but then couldn’t use that same crystal ball to predict that Trump would attack Iran, and oil prices would rise (causing even more inflation) even though he’s warning about it for months and ships were gathering in the Middle East and yet already attacked them once before in the months prior?
They need to get a new crystal ball at the RBNZ pronto…the current one is broken!!!
I just find it bizarre how reluctant they are to raise rates when inflation is outside band and trending up with high global risks of inflationary spikes - it’s like some form of mental retardation that exists in central bankers…’I must keep rates low..I must keep rates low…I must keep rates low’ Why? Probably because they either own a lot of property - and/or know their personal net worth drops when they raise rates. Eg across shares, property, bond holdings.
It is a stark reminder that NZ will always be at the mercy of the manoeuvres of the great powers, like it or lump it. So now it is a question of how the current government intend to navigate the choppy waters so to speak. Unfortunately for them that coincides with having a weakened leader with an election looming. Rock and hard place is as good a cliche.
Because RBNZ increasing business costs and reducing the disposable income of mortgagors will stop the US and Israel bombing countries? Honestly, it blows my mind that, in the year of the warlord 2026, there are still people who believe in medieval monetarism.
It matters not, what you or I believe.
It's the only Larger Spanner, the RBNZ has, to get ahead of the pending 5%, 8% or 10% incoming inflation reads.
The confusion of inflation with price increases continues....the price matters little when there is little to purchase.
What do you think will happen to activity (measured as GDP) if oil doubles and /or supply halves?
"The MPC has regard to the importance of protecting and promoting the stability of New Zealand’s financial system, while recognising that in most instances prudential policy is better suited to leaning against risks to financial stability. The Reserve Bank takes prudential policy settings into account when setting monetary policy, and vice versa."
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/monetary-poli…
"What do you think will happen to activity (measured as GDP) if oil doubles and /or supply halves?"
Welcome to the 1970s, such fun...not
Remember Carless days...I must have a look for my old "X - Exemption" & "Yesterday" stickers
"Welcome to the 1970s, such fun...not"
Yes but in an economy less resilient and with the addition of supply constraint on top of price, not to mention private debt magnitudes greater.
But the opposite of your view is what we’ve been living through for a few decades which has been equally stupid.
We decimated our manufacturing capacity and jobs/trades for young people by importing deflation from cheap foreign labour (everything now made in China and Vietnam) and end up with house prices 10x people’s incomes. That policy isn’t very smart either. Less jobs, less productive capacity and much higher house prices relative to incomes - it’s about the dumbest economic strategy you could come up with. Unless of course you love capital gains from a housing portfolio but hate the future prosperity and wellbeing of you country.
"That policy isn’t very smart either. Less jobs, less productive capacity and much higher house prices relative to incomes - it’s about the dumbest economic strategy you could come up with."
It is...but unfortunately we are part of that system (rather than policy)....until we can set up our economy to operate under a revised system we are bound by it.
It all paradigm shifted in 2021.
NZ no longer knells at the housing prices up forever church. The NZ housing ponzi has been ripped and torn to pieces!
- Well maybe Ashley Church, still kneels at this financial pulpit. (Not sure God likes his money chasing though?)
Not specifically housing...assets. The expanding (private) credit must be secured to something....even if it an unrealistic hope.
I agree with Yvil re foreseeing the US strike on Iran
I also agree with you re price of oil - a reasonably high risk of prices increasing in a potentially volatile world
No reserve bank governor has a reliable crystal ball. I'm comfortable of her last interest rate action. Because what you identify as risks and what has transpired this week, were, back then risks to be watched and inform the next action.
Imagine if she had lifted the rate with the justification that within the next review period, the US will go to war with Iran, the Straits of Hormuz will be closed to all shipping and, all Persian Gulf oil refining and export will be shut down. She, and NZ, would be the laughing stock of at least the Western World.
It is what the Reserve Bank will do next that demonstrates her mettle.
Folks, wake up, Gold is massively underpriced. In the 1973 oil shock Gold went from $35/ounce to $200 and in 2008 when oil reached $147 per barrel, Gold breached $1,000 per troy ounce for the first time. It's not uncommon for precious metals to initially drop in a crisis, but they do invariably rise higher, much higher over the medium to long term.
We 100% agree here. Oil and Gold to the moon.
Debt fueled junkies will be torched!!!!
Gold does have its benefits over silver. One of those is that it isn’t heavily manipulated like silver by the large banks. It seems once silver heads to $90 it gets shot down by the big players. There’s already signs of it happening but true price discovery will occur once the paper market dislocates from the physical.
Yvils gone from pitching house price gains to now gold (because he’s finally purchased some).
Warning that this could mean gold might be going into a bubble if he continues this behaviour.
He is the market bellwether when it comes to asset bubbles.
Folks, wake up, Gold is massively underpriced.
You're like a butterfly Dr Y. Flitting from one narrative to the the next.
Don't be surprised if next you see the Aotearoa Ponzi cheerleaders hawking the ol' rat poison.
That was interesting....and theres more than one way to destroy a currency.
The private credit market bubble has burst, investors are all heading for the exits. Imagine 100 people pushing when there's only space for 1 person.
BlackRock has capped investor withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND) after redemption requests exceeded the fund’s quarterly limit, highlighting growing liquidity pressure across retail-focused private credit vehicles.
Investors requested redemptions of about 9.3% of the fund’s shares in the latest quarterly window, roughly USD 1.2 billion based on recent NAV.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/blackrock-s-26-billion-priva…
Are these scuttling fund cockroaches big enough, to be a threat to larger financial system?
A bit of an analogy....
It's not normally a great catastrophe that makes the cliff fall into the sea, it's the action of wave after wave, slowly but steadily eating the rock away until gravity brings the whole lot tumbling down.
My understanding of the private debt financing is that it enables many relatively small businesses to set up and operate. If those debts are called in, then that could be the many waves eating away at the cliff.
It's simple. BlackRock just blocked investors from pulling their own money out. The world’s largest asset manager is telling people: "no, you can’t have your cash back". This has never happened before.
Investors wanted 9.3% of their money back. BlackRock said no. Capped it at 5%. Paid out $620 million and locked the rest. That means almost HALF the people who wanted out couldn’t get out.
It’s not just BlackRock. Blackstone’s similar fund saw a record 7.9% in redemption requests. They had to raise their withdrawal cap and inject $400 million of their own money just to cover the demand.
Blue Owl straight up stopped honoring redemptions. Replaced them with IOUs. BLK dropped 5%. KKR, Carlyle, Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl, and TPG all fell 5-6% with it. The entire private credit sector sold off in a single day.
Are these scuttling fund cockroaches big enough, to be a threat to larger financial system?
These funds lend money in illiquid loans. Loans that can’t be sold quickly. So when too many investors want out at the same time, the fund doesn’t have the cash to pay everyone. We're talking a $1.8 trillion industry.
BlackRock also just wrote a separate $25 million loan down to ZERO. A loan that was valued at full price three months ago.
JPMorgan’s Bill Eigen said: “Bad news often happens all at once. The opacity and the leverage in the sector is concerning.”
AI disrupting the software companies that borrowed heavily from these funds is something to consider.
David just want to say thank you for the "this is interesting" link, and the time to nip in. I watch the world in mild trepidation as my personal third generation grows, as a dedicated and very long term surfer Im a little circumspect on the location of the interesting article, but its 2026 not 1976. I didn't use the 80's to rape and pillage our country and buy myself an island I have to make do with what I have. Again thanks from - as often as I can be a PROUD KIWI.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.