Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news markets are betting Trump will 'declare victory' over Iran soon and walk back his war.
But the Straits of Hormuz are still effectively closed - to all but Iranian-linked vessels. Perhaps oddly, markets are assuming they will open to all 'soon'. The US Navy has escorted one tanker through. The betting on TACO is strong.
But separately today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little change to last week's full auction. That means those good prices were essentially maintained, so no sign yet that the global rise in dairy supply is hurting prices.
In the US, the ADP weekly jobs report rose +15,500, the same as the prior week, a steadying after five weeks of modest gains.
Existing US home sales rose marginally in February but that was better than expectations that they would fall. That leaves them -1.4% lower than year-ago levels. Despite the recent rebound, unsold inventory rose at a sharper rate.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for a second consecutive month in February when it was expected to rise (marginally). The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%.
Today's UST 3yr bond auction brough another modest rise in yields from the prior equivalent event.
In Canada, their travel to the US is down more than -30% in February compared to the pre-tariff period, replaced by much higher travelling to other places. Interestingly, visits by American to Canada are rising. Canada is also attracting notably more tourists from other countries too, presumably those avoiding the US.
In Japan, machine tool orders remained especially strong in February, especially export orders.
China's exports rose almost +22% in February from the same month a year ago, its best rise since the pandemic. Imports were up almost +20%. Their exports to New Zealand rose only +1.6% but their imports are up almost +26%. Their exports to Australia rose +32% while their imports were up +29%. Their February trade with the US was even stronger with exports up +27% and imports up +36%.
In Malaysia, January industrial production expanded by +5.9% from a year ago, beating market estimates of a +5.4% rise and the previous month’s +4.8% increase. Their factory sector posted even stronger rises.
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey showed consumers remain firmly pessimistic, although sentiment continues to show some resilience. Daily responses in their survey show a material weakening over the survey week. The results were less pessimism on current finances and attitudes towards major purchases. On the economy it reveals more unease near-term but less concern about the medium-term. Unemployment expectations pushed up above long-run average levels, led by the over-45s.
Staying in Australia, the NAB business confidence survey found that business conditions were steady in February, but sentiment slipped, with confidence now in negative territory for the first time in almost a year, likely reflecting some caution in the wake of the February RBA rate hike. This survey didn't really pick up the more recent Middle East war effects because it was conducted from February 23 to March 2 and so only caught the very beginning of the US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent spike in energy prices.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.14%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +56 bps (+2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is unchanged +15 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at just on +42 bps (+1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at just on 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is holding at 2.19%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.85%, down -3 bps from yesterday. But the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.60%, down -11 bps from yesterday.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is little-changed so far. Overnight European markets were higher between Frankfurt's +2.2% and Paris's +1.7%. Yesterday Tokyo partially recovered by +2.9%. Hong Kong was up +2.2% and Shanghai was up +0.6%. Singapore recovered +2.2%. And the ASX200 rose +1.1%. But the NZX50 ended very little-changed.
The price of gold will start today up +US$126 from yesterday at US$5229/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at US$89.50/oz today.
American oil prices are down -US$9.50, at just under US$84.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$10.50 to be now just on US$88.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.5 USc. But against the Aussie we are down a sharp -80 bps at 82.2 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just under 63.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,226 and up another +3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.
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83 Comments
I see comments are off on the finance/intelligence thread.
Oxymoronic heading aside, some may like to exercise their cranial muscles:
Infrastructure, finance, and the sale of the future - An Outside Chance
'Equity and bond markets, then, together hold vast encumbrances on the future – they are profiting today from debts that they expect other people to be repaying, ten, twenty or thirty years from now. The rules of the game protect this extraction from the future, regardless of our full awareness...
Parasitic on parasitic parasites, all spending the future, today.
While studiously avoiding accounting for that which they (we) are spending-down.
What could possibly go wrong?
What could possibly go wrong?
The potentialities are almost endless.
Big change is in the breeze. Although for today, what's currently "normal", is still pretty good. Use it wisely.
from a friend of mine, this morning:
' ...in one of the more balanced (Israeli) papers this morning was a series of admissions such as that the Iranian regime looks far more resilient than expected, those who are against the regime are not coming out onto the streets, the Kurds are less and less likely to consider being the first group to start ground invasion, they think the Iranians are preparing to mine the strait and that they don’t actually know when this war will end – in other words the civil unrest they hoped to foment to encourage the regime to fall has failed to materialise. Eventually the Americans will run low on munitions, turn tail and go home and Trump will puppet mission accomplished or they will put boots on the ground and be stuck in an Iraq/Afghanistan style quagmire – either way the damage to oil infrastructure and supply chains and the broader implications of this war on myriad other industries (e.g. fertiliser and industrial chemicals such as sulphuric acid) will bring the economies of the world grinding to a halt in the coming months or at the very least we’ll be in full blown depression with a chain reaction of already struggling retail businesses failing. The inflation will be horrendous…. '
TBH, any opposition group would be wise to just keep their heads down while the government is being pounded. There may be an opportunity for Kurds to carve out a home state, if the Tehran regime is weakened sufficiently. I doubt they'd be interested in ruling the whole country, because they are a minority. Ultimately Iran as we know it may cease to exist.
The backbone, and a lot than that more too, of the Iranian administration is the Republicans Guard. That was established in 1979 and recruits have been selected and trained methodically to the purpose of the state and elite. Apart from the military no Iranians by law are allowed to own firearms. So put that together with a vast network of internal security surveillance and thus any civilian uprising has the proverbial snow ball’s chance in hell.The Iranians likely anticipated all that could be thrown at them aerially and at sea but they know too that won’t take away their power over the people as long as the IRG is intact and has control of the streets. Hence until some sufficiently powerful land force actually crosses the border the Iranian regime will consider itself as more or less unthreatened.
I don't think the Israelis have the same motivations as America. They have a better idea of the opponent and the low odds of a quick win. For them, if they can mostly neuter Iran, they sit virtually unopposed in the region.
But I'd say the scenario you've just mentioned is up there in likelihood. Potentially we will see a joint international police force trying to secure the route.
I wouldn't be worrying about repayments in twenty or thirty years? With religious fundimentalist nuts in charge of the worlds largest military, we'll be lucky to make twenty or thirty months!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/us-israel-iran-war-christ…
"The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members"
"their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.“He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”,
"the NCO added. reports indicate an increase in Christian extremism in the military, noting that the complainants “report the unrestricted euphoria of their commanders” who perceive a “‘biblically-sanctioned’ war that is clearly the undeniable sign of the expeditious approach of the fundamentalist Christian ‘End Times’.”
People better suited to padded cells and sedatives are now imposing themselves on EVERYONE!
There's a few fundy-types in our present Cabinet too...
Oh yes. They'd be extremely comfy sitting around the Trump cabinet table, paying reverence to the great one. 45/47 I mean.
Around a couple months back, I mentioned the fundamental shift in global affairs that the Orange Man is helping bring about.
Zachnery Smith called it scaremongering and hysterical.
How we looking now Zackie? Still a case of "move on, nothing to see here"?
As the world gets more bogged down in conflicts and standoffs, we will get more conflicts and standoffs.
The world it would seem will need to adjust to and accommodate conflict being ongoing, regionally so far. In ancient times empires such as the Roman, Mongol and British set forth grabbing everything rewarding reachable which meant basically occupation and exploitation of land and people. Now we are in what I like to call the oil age those ambitions and missions are mostly focused on energy resources which are spread among the continents, nation by nation. As PDK would remark that now is the nub of the conflict which is increasing as fast as the sources are dwindling and becoming harder to extract.
Much faster, I would say. The resources are of less value if humanity loses its capacity to co-operate with one another.
The big difference in 2026 is the much greater degree of interconnectivity between all peoples of the planet. Can't get oil out of here, can't make stuff over there, can't run a hospital down the road, etc.
Ideally for NZ we want to hope the Asians are smarter than most of the rest.
My issue with your previous comments was that they were short on specifics. You were having a strong feeling of doom and refused to elaborate or give any possible scenarios whatsoever, even when pressed. Sure, something will likely turn up in the future that may justify your feeling, but it was inevitable that history would happen.
You're still being a bit hysterical.
That said, I don't think things are all that dire at the moment. Things could well work out. Don't underestimate the God-Emperor!
Ah, the old 'I need a pretty story, therefore' approach.
Lot of that about.
Usually goes with the personal narrative (peer-approval, status, mana attached) having painted itself into that corner.
Doesn't need to be pretty, just something, anything.
Imagine stopping all conflict henceforth and forever.
How are an overshot 8 billion going to divvy-up the remaining - and reducing at exponentially-increasing rates - stocks of energy and physical resources?
At what rate of draw-down, can a maintainable throughput-rate be achieved?
Who is going to break the news that modernity was therefore temporary?
Sure, something will likely turn up in the future that may justify your feeling, but it was inevitable that history would happen.
My point is the likelihood of the "somethings" happening is and will increase. I can list many possibilities, but the large amount of variables makes specifics difficult. You might as well ask me how this current conflict in the Gulf will play out. I can't really tell you, but I can highlight a handful of likely outcomes.
There's no hysteria or paranoia required. I am just just conscious of the set of circumstances that has allowed such a sustained period of peace and prosperity for humanity, and I can see it also being undone, and what the ramifications of that could be.
Here it comes:
Even with the Straits of Hormuz closed, you can buy about 70% more crude with an ounce of gold than you could last year: https://www.longtermtrends.com/gold-to-oil-ratio/
For the people that say gold is the only real measure of value, how can this happen? Has oil decreased in value by 70% in one year? If so has demand reduced or supply increased?
Note that this has occurred not only for oil, but for almost everything. The number of Big Macs you can buy with an ounce of gold has doubled. Why has everything in the world suddenly reduced in value?
Or could it be that gold is actually a fixed supply speculative asset and hence a terrible measure of value?
Why the continued need to conflate?
Gold is a risk-times Ponzi. Why use that, now, as a reference? Versus ounces, maybe, but versus $$$$ 'value'?
Understand that a joule is a joule is a joule; a calorie a calorie. They are the only measure, the only subsequent adjustments being efficiencies and entropy. Choke the global energy-flow - by 20% - and bets on growth are on shaky ground. And they are the majority, bets-wise.
Sooner or later, a reconciliation must happen between bets-held, and energy-available.
"Gold is a risk-times Ponzi."
Would you care to explain that nugget, PDK.
The way I read it, it comes across as a glaring oxymoron.
The fact gold is perceived to be the all time stable and sound form of money has markets flocking to it on that assumption.
Ironically over valuing it, because if things really do turn to shit, the supply of goods will dry up and the market value of the gold isn't as much as people thought it'd be.
I think he is referring to it's lack of intrinsic value. Apart from being a non-oxidizing electrical connector, it's just shiny "bling".
more objectively - it is a very good form of "money" or "exchange", if a little bit on the heavy side and not very scalable. Hence it's "history" as such
Stable, durable, portable, recognizable and fungible.
I'm afraid you don't understand the debasement of fiat currencies JJ.
Every investment contains a speculative component.
Are you arguing the gold price is 100% speculation ?
Then it's not an investment, it's a forward bet.
Call it what it is and read my link upthread for what the bets are on.
Is buying fire insurance for your house a 'forward bet' that your house will burn down, or is it a hedge against a catastrophic event?
It's one in the same.
Insurance is a funny one, because your bet pays you out if something bad happens to you.
Ok noted. Insurance is a forward bet in your books.
And so a term deposit is also a forward bet then?
It's running the risk of semantics, but basically anything we do to try and front run the future is some form of forward bet. A term deposit being at the lower risk end of the spectrum.
I don't think you can strip out future betting from any form of investment.
TL is doing the stones/oil conflation thing (the quote that the stone age didn't end for want of stones so the oil age won't end for want of oil - it's not like-for-like. Closer to the truth, the stone age was the firewood age, and yes, many cultures died out by overrunning local forests). It'a cranial bait-and-switch, but many do it unwittingly.
The future will be able to supply ever-less material resources, and ever-less low-entropy energy.
Betting ever-more on more that it can supply, cannot be justified by trying to equate it to a risk/odds equation re insurance. Except to point out the obvious: global society must become uninsurable...
Oxymoron territory. Alle same someone's comment upthread - gold is not energy
Thanks for hijacking another thread to throw around your rigid, absolutist labels and then ordering us to do our homework by viewing your latest link on energy depletion. / sarc
The worlds falling apart, this is no time for conspiracy theories or trying to shoehorn ones own beliefs into events.
Except mine.
Exactly. You’ve defined the following:
Gold = forward bet
Insurance = forward bet
Savings = forward bet
Since we agree that everything has a forward bet component to some degree, my question to Jimbo remains:
Is he arguing that the gold price is 100% speculation?
I'd argue mostly, as there are some valid uses for gold industrially and for cultural value e.g jewellery. Outside of practical use, a materials value is in tthe eye of the beholder. People saw value in tulips once far above any utility too. People flock to gold given it's historical use in bartering, especially in times of turmoil, and this increases demand and thus it's perceived value. But as some have said, if it doesn't sustain life, is it as valuable as made out? While there is still materials to use and food aplenty then sure, but if we had a huge fertiliser shortage and fuel shortage the ability to produce and deliver food would drop drastically then we would have to ask: what good is gold if food is the most valuable commodity to survive, and nobody wanted your gold to trade given it's lack of day-to-day utility.
Fair points but you’re overlooking gold’s primary function, monetary utility. It’s the worlds largest foreign reserve asset.
The tulips comparison is a bit of a false equivalency. Tulips are perishable, can be grown in unlimited quantities and zero historical track record as a medium of exchange. It was a very short speculative bubble, while gold is a tier 1 reserve asset held by almost every major central bank.
If we have a massive fertiliser or fuel shortage the economy wouldn’t disappear, it just becomes incredibly expensive. In those scenarios the local currency usually collapses because more is printed to fix the problem. In 1920s Germany or 2020s Venezuela, farmers traded eggs for silver or gold not worthless paper.
Gold has been around for over 5000 years. Can you think of an example in which gold became worthless as your scenario is suggesting?
Worth less, certainly.
Many civilisations have irrupted, minted gold coinage, and collapsed. They did the latter by losing access to energy - often food energy. The coinage survives - so what? Did they use it to out-bid each other in the last chapter? Maybe.
Store? Hmmmm. Grain was the original store of surplus energy, was the first 'wealth', and was the first method of social stratification. But it was food, remember. So kinda valuable... Gold appears to have appeared as an exchange mechanism only after we had an energy surplus. In other words, only after there was an underwrite... So store?
Worth less, but never worthless.
Grain was the first wealth because it's energy, but it's a terrible store because it rots. Money became the ledger of that energy. Gold is simply the most honest ledger history has ever produced because unlike paper or grain, it can't be printed or grown into worthlessness.
If you’re so convinced about the 1:1 link between energy depletion and civilisational collapse, what's your take on the propulsion mechanics observed in UAPs?
Observed?
The Laws of Physics cannot be broken - nor even bent. So equal and opposite, all that, and entropy, all that too.
The current LSR was set back in 1997 - and the pic of the sound-wave emanating from the front of the vehicle is a doozy.
#TheThrillOfSpeed – Thrust SSC – Breaking the sound barrier. – Historic Motor Sport Central. (sixth picture down).
We'll probably never surpass that. Ever.
Propulsion? meaning propelling? Think about it.
Edit - of course, money was no longer a marker for that energy, once it has succumbed to entropy (had rotted, in common-speak). The energy-store no longer existed, therefore the 'money', gold, whatever, couldn't be traded for it. So worthless.
So just to be clear on your worldview you don’t believe UAPs exist, and you believe fossil fuels are the universe's only underwrite ?
Your moniker suggests you should have a better handle on this. Food has always been a marker of wealth. Culturally food has been a way we demonstrated our wealth to others by providing feasts for them. Food also means survival. Gold doesn't. You can't eat or drink it. Someone with just enough food to feed their family might not be willing to sell it for gold, no matter how much, if more food was not available to replace that sold.
Simple really. The modern concept of money doesn't translate to survival unless you're prepared to spend it on the things that would achieve that like weapons, shelter and protection and perhaps armsmen etc. Money, not mater its form does not translate to survival if it is sitting in a vault. Although it may make one vulnerable.
I understand exactly what you’re attempting to achieve. You’re attempting to strip away every abstract layer of the modern economy to prove a point.
However if you disqualify one abstract store of value, it must be applied to all:
- Currency
- Term deposits
- Insurance
- Stocks
That is my point.
So Murray, If Jimbo’s question had been about a Term Deposit, would you have responded with the same “you can't eat it” argument? Or is this logic only reserved for gold?
The fundamental recognition that PDK is trying to pull us back to is the basics. As societies have developed, it has been generally recognised that traditional stores of value perhaps vegetable food stocks or animals, be they food, beasts of burden, companion hunters are all perishable, and cannot in many respects be divided up into ever smaller increments. Add in the fact that what one has, the other might not need or want to facilitate a trade. So common trading mediums were developed. Pretty things like a metal that never corrodes and shines brightly make easily recognised commonly acceptable trading mediums. A small step further and we see 'money' developed, backed by wealthy powers and eventually states.
Take that to the modern day, and Jimbo's question; is a Term Deposit a store of wealth? Strictly within the context of modern economics, it has to be. But there are significant caveats. The modern systems have digitised 'money', but laws and regulations still make it real, but is is just a store of the recognised legal trading medium. Which must be said is also perishable due to inflation.
It is equally true that it can't be eaten, but so long as he doesn't wait until society collapses, it should be able to be traded for something that can be eaten or is less perishable to be traded at a later date.
Yes the constant banging of PDKs limits to growth drum is near impossible to ignore.
But it doesn’t actually answer Jimbo’s question. He was asking about relative value and speculation in today’s economy. He’s comparing the price of gold to oil and big macs. Not how to survive total system collapse.
You’ve also avoided my question - if Jimbo had asked about term deposits would you have lectured him on the basics of survival and how you can’t eat a bank statement? Or would you accept it as a standard financial enquiry?
My example was simply to illustrate that gold, like anything, is only 'worth' the value people give it. Neanderthals did not value gold, they valued sustenance, whcih lead us to where we are today as a speices.
If one was a poor sub-saharan african farmer in drought who could barely find enough sustenance, or travel far by foot, gold would only be of value to him if it were able to be exchanged for other goods, however if all others around him were in similar states of malnourishment, who would value the gold vs the most important thing: food. Extreme, perhaps, but the intent was to provoke thought.
Yes, then in your example I completely agree with you.
That's a very different scenario from Jimbo’s real world examples using oil and the Big Mac Index. The poor Neanderthals never experienced a Big Mac
Just as we have never experienced a mammoth bbq XD
The US navy didn't actually escort a tanker apparently https://aje.news/dp9bg1
Admittedly off track a bit but you just caused a flashback to HMS Ulysses, MacLeans best book and a very good paragraph describing the vision of an oil tanker being torpedoed mid convoy.
The book Malta Convoy is a good read too. Was a film of too.
Ohio was the tanker in that trip - only stayed floating because oil is lighter than water. Grounded as they emptied her. Roger Hill (hero Nelsonian captain of Ledbury) died in Arrowtown a few years back.
Bought that when I actually was in Malta and then made a grave mistake. Was next in transit Frankfurt airport and reading it and wondering why I was getting rather cold looks and lots of German muttering. Of course the artwork on the cover had the Ohio mid ocean alongside a destroyer blazing away and a Stuka plummeting down in flames. Oh dear as per Mark Twain - “Innocents Abroad.”
Yeah, reminds me of being on a Lufthansa flight decades ago and filling out the delaration card asking me if I was a Nazi? I thought it was a hoot and showed my neighbour, forgot I wasn't on the 7am Timaru to Wellington flight. He was of course German, without a sense of humour.
Never let the truth get in the way of a good story (motto of truth social and the current whitehouse)
Hey now. It's all under control. We've taken out their Air Force and navy. Ahead of schedule, it'll soon be over folks.
On an unrelated note, we're banning any footage of explosions or attacks throughout the Gulf States and Israel.
Except when the USA's only navy posted on social media them filming a drone take out their radar system in Bahrain lol. Talk about an own goal.
If its unavailable ( even at any price, whether you are willing to pay in gold or not) your stuffed....whether this event is temporary or not, it is the future.
"The force majeure declarations cascading across Gulf and Asian suppliers did not just mean delays to oil supplies, they void contracts, and could see fuel currently headed to New Zealand diverted to nations willing to pay more," Surendran said.
There were signs this was already happening, with reports of cargoes being diverted from Europe and Africa to Asia.
The government should take a precautionary approach, signalling possible rationing now, before shortages forced it, Surendran said."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/589195/fuel-supplies-in-nz-unless-t…
"Murat Ungor, economist at the University of Otago, said if fuel were completely cut off tomorrow, New Zealand could sustain itself for roughly a month, or just under, with the stocks on shore, assuming there was rationing and prioritisation for essential services."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/589107/how-much-fuel-does-nz-have-a…
Does anyone think that Trump has any of this in mind?
(Good morning Samantha)
'In mind' and 'Trump' in the same sentence.
Kudos :)
I remember as a teenager in the 1960s, hearing about Llap-Goch, a highly secret Welsh form of self-defence, that required no intelligence, strength, or physical courage.
My theory - perhaps Captain Chao$ AKA,Neo-Caligula/The Circu$ Ringmaster, and his cabinet of sychophantic morons, have rediscovered this theory and are busy trialling it on Iran.
IT is THE most DEADLY form OF SECRET self-DEFENCE that HAS ever been widely advertised and available to EVERYONE.
BUT WHY ALL the tedious CAPITALS in the recruitment ad?
Because THE most likely kind OF person TO answer THIS sort OF advertisement HAS less trouble under-STANDING words if they ARE written in BIG letters.
WHAT is LLAP-GOCH again?
It is an ANCIENT Welsh ART based on a BRILLIANTLY simple I-D-E-A, which is a SECRET. The best form of DEFENCE is ATTACK and the most VITAL element of ATTACK is SURPRISE.
Therefore, the BEST way to protect yourself AGAINST any ASSAILANT is to ATTACK him before he attacks YOU… Or BETTER… BEFORE the THOUGHT of doing so has EVEN OCCURRED TO HIM!!! SO YOU MAY BE ABLE TO RENDER YOUR ASSAILANT UNCONSCIOUS BEFORE he is EVEN aware of your very existence!
Just a thought - indeed, a blast from the past
Col
Isn't the modern vernacular for that, "coward punch"?
Yes, to me it is the same thing.
I referenced Monty Python because, at least to me, good satire doesn't really age.
Trump's behaviour has become so outrageously dangerous that he needs to be ridiculed around the world.
He represents an existential threat to much of the ME and Europe, and if his sidekick Israel invoke the Sampson Option, when not if they lose this war, then indeed he risks the very survival of all of humanity.
"Trump's behaviour has become so outrageously dangerous that he needs to be ridiculed around the world."
While I completely agree with you Colin, the problem is that Trump is the utter nutter in charge of the biggest, most powerful armed forces in the world, and the leaders of that force are falling over themselves to obey his every utterance. Scarier still, they are using fundamentalist Christianity to reinforce their instructions to their troops. Trump himself is clearly not a Christian, rather his faith is the $Donald J Trump$ (Yes they are deliberate dollar signs) faith and by any measure what the US forces leaders are saying should be tantamount to a blasphemy.
"Trump himself is clearly not a Christian".
Seems evangelicals are OK making a deal with the devil, if they perceive they are getting nett benefit?
What are the benefits?
They've got Roe v Wade overturned, they are working on limiting access to contraception. And they are getting the confusion over what constitutes male and female rolled back. Apart from making money, the next most important thing to an evangelical is being in everyones bedroom. The ultimate goal is of course, after making the US a theocratic state, is to take the good word global, if not with a cheque, with the pointy end of a gun.
hard to disagree with that view. not that I want to. I think it is definitely a part of the picture.
Someone compared the founding fathers as being largely Deists meaning more or less, that they believed in God but didn’t go to church which is the dead opposite of their counterpart politicians today.
Yes, I doubt there were too many non believers around that era. Perhaps they observed the extremist behavior of the contemporary ultra "faithful", drunk on meting "Gods" justice, and decided a separation between the state and wackos was the best step forward?
I have often pondered why the US is such an enthusiastically god fearing entity. Perhaps the genetics of the original (European) settlers showing through, geographical isolation from the "Enlightenment" era lessening it's impact?
On reading Paul Johnson’s excellent a History of the American People you can see how religion provided vital structure and security to the early settlers and pioneers. Many of those of course were escaping appalling conditions and oppression and a “new light” was neither unwelcome nor unattractive. Then fast forward to Sinclair Lewis’s Elmer Gantry and the exposure of how all that eventuated, hypocrisy and corruption, blasphemy in fact by its own account and modern times have simply carried on from there. We lived there twenty or so years ago, a good blue collar catholic Irish and Italian community, great people to be amongst, yet the ability to go to church on Sunday and expunge all the week’s transgressions, and then start in on a new set of them on Monday, was rather painful to observe.
Your last sentence is exactly my observation of the American attitude to life; do whatever you like, no matter what Monday to Saturday, confess your sins Sunday visibly then start with a clean slate on Monday. Hypocrisy at it's best. But then Salem, Massachusetts provides a salient lesson to those who forget the 'Sunday' bit. Society is quick to judge and condemn when you don't conform.
What I can't reconcile is the coalition between conservative evangelical mid west and southern christians and team silicon valley techbro "Move fast and break things". Is it complete naivety, or is it just that the christian interest stops at the bedroom door?
It stops at the bedroom door. The rest is about power and control which is really all that religion is about. It's certainly not about God.
Mearsheimer at 41:00...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e9NhLfPNKU&t=2489s
" ... President Trump doesn't lie on a lot of occasions, because he actually believes what he is saying, which is scarier than him lying - I think that he actually believes a lot of these statements that he makes, that bear little resemblance to reality.
#1 I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if he believes that Iran has Tomahawk missiles. He has a lot of false beliefs firmly embedded in his brain.
#2 I do think that he tells lots of lies. I think one could argue that he lies almost all the time. He is constantly telling lies. But the fact is, they are ineffective, because everyone understands that he is lying.
#2 I do think that he tells lots of lies. I think one could argue that he lies almost all the time. He is constantly telling lies. But the fact is, they are ineffective, because everyone understands that he is lying
That assumes that everyone prioritizes objective truth above all else.
Great comment.
Upton Sinclair comes to mind: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
One here, particularly, comes to mind...
The majority seem to prioritise their own status - and by implication, that of the tribe/nation/cohort within which t exists - above hard truths.
We can see it all day, every day, in all of us.
Most people have knowledge of the best/better way to exist. Eat right, exercise, be nice to others, etc. but we will repeatedly act to the contrary.
There's a very tenuous relationship between most people's thoughts and actual reality.
At the risk of invoking Godwin one Adolf Hitler fielding incessant complaints amongst his entourage concerning his deputy Goering’s compulsive lying responded something like - what am I supposed to do? Hell even Goering doesn’t know when Goering is lying.
Does anyone think that Trump has any of this in mind?
The potentiality of failure won't feature highly.
If he succeeds, it's because he's brilliant.
If he fails, it's because someone else is a poopie-doodiehead.
How, pray tell does he 'succeed'?
That's up for Trump to define also.
He cannot lose.
Id suggest that he cannot do other than fail once he launched the attack.
I think Pa1nter means that Trump cannot fail in his own mind. Of course, in the real world he is an abject failure.
Obviously you aren't privy to the machinations of his support base? For better, or worse, his fans have a loyalty dictators dream of and they are global, not just US. Scratch any NZ evangelical and orange is just beneath the surface.
Sure, Trumps opposition make a lot of noise. They've been predicting his immediate death from bruising on his hands and dementia for a year now. On the other hand, he owns the justice system, the military and is working on trashing democracy, all while enriching himself enormously. If he manages to subvert the mid term elections, the people calling him a failure will get a free plane ride to Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorimo.
Mid terms near enough coincide with NZ’s general election. What on earth could have induced the heavens to arrange such an alignment?
Trump will threaten to tariff us if we vote change.
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