Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the US economy ended 2025 weaker than previously reported, with inflation more stubborn than ever. Things will only get worse from there for them as it seems to be on a losers track.
It will be no surprise to learn that US core PCE inflation rose at a +3.1% rate in January, its most since late 2023. And the rises in December and January were at more than a +4.5% annualised rate. Given subsequent events, it seems unlikely this rate will have eased since.
It its second interim report, the US economy expanded an annualised +0.7% in Q4-2025, far less than the +1.4% advance estimate, and the weakest performance since a contraction in the first quarter of 2025. Downward revisions came for exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously thought. It is turning out economic expansion is far less now than at any time during the Biden presidency.
The January JOLTS report showed more openings than in the five-year-low December report, but these were still -6% lower than a year ago.
Meanwhile, the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey fell as expected in its March edition, to a three-month low, but inflation expectations didn't fall as expected. The shifts were comprehensive across all income and age groups. War uncertainty and the rising fuel costs were the [obvious] triggers. Those petrol prices are up +18% now from a year ago, up +9% in a week. The darker mood is very obvious from two years ago (before Trump 2), with sentiment down -30%.
Meanwhile the Congressional Budget Office is sounding the alarm about where US federal debt is tracking. Page 3 of their February report shows the essential corruption - personal income taxes are up +10% (and you can be sure that does not relate to billionaire 'taxpayers'), corporate income taxes are down -33%. Even the 'tariff tax' collections are essentially taxes on Americans collected at the border. These are up +US$109 bln, about the same as the rise in personal income taxes. The result seems to be that US Treasury debt held by the public is currently 101% of nominal GDP and without changes will rise to 175% of GDP in 30 years.
In Canada, their labour market shrank in February and by an outsized -83,900 following a -25,000 decrease in January and sharply missing forecasts for a +10,000 gain. Job losses were concentrated in full-time positions which were down -108,400, so the report is grimmer than it first seems. It has been called a 'brutal' jobs report, and will undoubtedly end the Bank of Canada's hiking cycle.
India loan growth rose +14.5% in February from a year ago, maintaining its high rate of expansion (and almost three times their GDP growth).
New passenger vehicle sales in India hit a record high in February, up more than +10% from the same month a year ago, but to be fair, this overall market is nothing like China - or the the US for that matter.
China new yuan loans rose +¥900 bln in February, just as was expected. But that gain was slightly less than the +¥1 tln in February 2025, and much less than the +¥1.5 tln in February 2024.
It won't be a surprise to know that the prices of most hard commodities are rising. But some ubiquitous ones like plastics (polyethylene +32%), steel (hot-rolled coil steel +13%), aluminium (+14%), and bitumen (+35%) have all jumped sharply in 2026. This won't be good for inflation control.
And of course there is a global scramble for fuel underway, one New Zealand is unlikely to win.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +8 bps from Friday, up +17 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +55 bps (-2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +23 bps (+2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at steeper on +59 bps (+5 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just over 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps bps at 2.25%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.99%, up another +2 bps from Friday, up +10 bps for the week. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today little-changed at 4.69% but up +17 bps for the week.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is lower in Friday trade, down -0.4% so far, down -0.8% for the week. Overnight European markets were lower between London's -0.4% and Paris's -0.9%. Yesterday Tokyo fell another -1.2% to end its week down -1.4%. Hong Kong dropped -1.0% but was up +1.6% for the week. Shanghai was down -0.8% on Friday, unchanged for the week. Singapore was down -0.3%. The ASX200 fell -0.1% on Friday for a weekly gain of +0.2% . And the NZX50 also ended down -0.1% on Friday, but down -2.5% for the week.
The Fear & Greed index has now moved into the 'extreme fear' zone, after being hard over in the 'fear' zone last week
The price of gold will start today down another -US$62 from yesterday at US$5057/oz, down -US$98 from a week ago. Silver is down -US$4 at US$81/oz today, down -US$3 from a week ago.
American oil prices are up +US$2, at just under US$97/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$101/bbl. A week ago these levels were US$90 and US$92/bbl respectively. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed, the situation still extremely unstable. One thing that is not happening is bringing in more US oil rigs into production in the US, even with these higher prices - yet anyway.
The Kiwi dollar has slid another -50 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 58.1 USc. That is a -1c drop in a week, down -1.5%. But against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.8 AUc. We are down -70 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down another -40 bps at just over 61.8, down -1.4% for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,970 and up +2.2% from this time yesterday, up +5.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.
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86 Comments
NZ could benefit indirectly form the war in Iran and from the general unrest throughout the world due to our remote location. I'm currently in Europe and there is definitely apprehension about what is happening in a not so distant geographical location (Ukraine and the Middle East) and a desire to avoid travel anywhere near a war hotspot. There is also an overriding dislike for the US and a desire to avoid traveling to the USA. In this sense, NZ is perceived as a safe destination about as far away as possible from unrest.
It’s a long way to travel with fuel being expensive.
President Trump’s favourite yapper Fox News (we are not related) has him this morning describing his Iranian foes as “deranged scum bags.” Guess that sort of reveals in terms of vocabulary finesse, just how important an Ivy League education is from Penn, one of America’s very first universities..
It takes one to know one? Apparently it also takes a persistent draft dodger to declare war.
The impacts will far outweigh any small benefits.
I can't see much other than humanity being collectively much worse off for the time being.
Yvil could be right in that there will be value being so isolated.
But it's only a relative bonus. There will be a sharp adjustment period. Reshoring of some industry. Re-routing of trade routes. The dissolution of some sectors.
One of our redeeming features is food security, that's why watties is closing?
We often say the world needs food, clearing not our frozen veges.
No, nor many other things you can grow or produce overseas at much lower cost.
So we tend to stick to things we have inherent natural advantages producing.
Don't worry, if it goes pear shaped our agricultural sector will have to radically alter from export focused production to internal consumption. Although we will still want to be an exporter in such a scenario.
Geez, that's an awful lot of fruit, meat, dairy and wine we'll all have to consume at our collective kitchen tables
90+% of production is export......
Yeah, hence the ag sector will have to readjust. That'd be 5-10 years I reckon.
I assume you are tongue in cheek Painter. But if you put those comments with a degree of seriousness.....
The ag sector as we know it wouldn't just adjust, it would disappear. Along with the bulk of export earnings that keep the lights on in NZ.
There's already an over-abundance of angst in NZ over funding for schools, healthcare, etc. Some referring to NZ as approaching 3rd world status.
If NZ sheds 30% of the country's export earnings, then we really would find out what third world living conditions are like - Godzone gone to hell in a hand basket ... on supersonic roller skates.
The ag sector as we know it wouldn't just adjust, it would disappear. Along with the bulk of export earnings that keep the lights on in NZ.
I don't know what scenario you're wanting to cover. I'm presuming the world is going to split into a handful of regional entities and global trade as we know goes away.
Assuming things don't go to total hell in a handcart, we have to eat, and the geography of the country is pretty good at growing things efficiently (decent rain and sun, fairly good soil). We would likely have surplus labour as other industries actually do disappear, which would supplant the sorts of mechanisation we could viably run. As it is we currently import 10s of thousands of these workers, which wouldn't be required.
There's already an over-abundance of angst in NZ over funding for schools, healthcare, etc. Some referring to NZ as approaching 3rd world status.
In this scenario, much of the 1st world disappears. Although we are also a long way currently from 3rd world, anyone saying otherwise hasn't seen much of the third world.
As I've said a couple of times already, it won't be recognisable in the way we currently view things.
Nice expansion, thank you. Imaginable progression.
I have found the concept of third world development programs quite perplexing and contradictory in their ambition to bring those populations into the image of western, capitalist, consumerist, materialistic, extractive, throw away societies. The notion that such peoples will have better lives than the subsistence system gives them. The contradiction is evident in the personal demeanour, willing smiles, the contentment with what they have and their capacity to function cohesively and sustainably within those western defined deprivations. And their surprisingly long longevity in those conditions.
Another scenario could be that an over populated country with major food insecurity invades and conquers NZ to feed their beleaguered population at home. I.e. a blood and guts battle over basics to support human life (not lifestyle, life).
Thank heavens I haven't got too many more orbits Another sun left to me.
The notion that such peoples will have better lives than the subsistence system gives them. The contradiction is evident in the personal demeanour, willing smiles, the contentment with what they have and their capacity to function cohesively and sustainably within those western defined deprivations
I've spent a lot of my life trying to find the ideal way of life that marries up having more than enough not to go without, whilst still living a full, happy life. The very best examples I've found are agrarian lifestyles that are relatively consistent in their ability to produce food, where there's a fairly deep and strong cultural order (as opposed to a political order).
Humans aren't really evolved for suburbia or apartments.
Another scenario could be that an over populated country with major food insecurity invades and conquers NZ to feed their beleaguered population at home
It is quite a long way, when there are other targets closer. But yes also a possibility, depends on what's going on out there.
Not if we don’t have diesel or fert.
Our overall economy will likely require far less fuel than currently.
Fertiliser we can partially shift more indigenous. Likely less produce overall, but certainly more than enough for domestic consumption and some export.
You have to envisage the economy being fundamentally different. With potentially a long period for people to adjust and accept the new realities.
Talk is that Balance will leave NZ in next 24 months, no natural gas means no economics, imported LPG will not work financially.
Sadly of food chain costs many calories more in energy to produce then we can get back in food calories. PDK has tried to explain this so many times....
Our ability to produce food at current levels will collapse if we have to import fertiliser.
We grew more protein than the country can eat before the advent of diesel tractors.
As I said, don't expect it to look the same or be the same size.
Sector carries a lot of debt, will be write downs if your vision comes true
No kidding.
Our economic system would be upended.
Time to invest in clyesdale breeding? Their prices would rocket up.
Yes, PDK has been explaining very well and I subscribe to his prognosis.
I'm interested in what the transition looks like. With the current war in the middle east, if it turns into a multi yeat quagmire with the straits of Hormuz closed for a long period, that transition may be very abrupt. We are already seeing force majeur being invoked. Nations turning to protect own interests.
There will be massive societal upheaval. Bucket loads of notional wealth/money in assets now will collapse in worth to be no more use than wallpaper.
Coming home this morning form an ambulance callout 35km south of here (volunteer crewed first response ambulance), I was pondering whether I will be able to access fuel supplies to enable me to get to the ambulance station? Will the ambulance have access to fuel to get to the patient? Will we have availability of pain management interventions? Will we see a return to 19th century conditions?
Many fundamental services that are taken for granted now, will be threatened. The welfare state will be bankrupt.
There will be survivors. Just who they are and on what basis they secure their survival, is a scary area to delve into.
With the current war in the middle east, if it turns into a multi yeat quagmire with the straits of Hormuz closed for a long period, that transition may be very abrupt. We are already seeing force majeur being invoked. Nations turning to protect own interests.
Yes. This issue in the Gulf States is problematic in isolation.
The larger problem is we are quickly abandoning diplomacy and reason in favour of "might is right". So those disaffected by the downstream issues with fuel supply are more likely to make drastic decisions with violent consequences. A big house of cards.
Coming home this morning form an ambulance callout 35km south of here (volunteer crewed first response ambulance), I was pondering whether I will be able to access fuel supplies to enable me to get to the ambulance station? Will the ambulance have access to fuel to get to the patient? Will we have availability of pain management interventions? Will we see a return to 19th century conditions?
We would find a balance. Fuel for personal use would be very scarce or expensive and what we can access would be for critical services and industry.
That'd be the orderly approach. As long as we have order.
"if we have to import fertilizer" we import nearly all our fert now IT. The problem will be if we can't get fert or the cost of imported fert goes up significantly .
NZ agriculture depends on imported fert to maintain production levels.
Under current economics that's the cheapest way to do it.
But we can produce our own fertilizer, it'd just be more expensive.
Which wouldn't be so much of a problem, because there'd be a whole host of other economic activity that'd just disappear. Because you need to eat first and foremost.
Watties: If Watties, and others, were locally owned they would not be closing. And especially not closing if it was local family owned.
Forget all the "work harder, work smarter" urgings. What really counts is ownership.
New Zealander and New Zealanders don't understand ownership being where the benefit lands. They need to smarten up.
So: Go for ownership.
When some multinational produces stuff in a cheap place to sell in a richer place that stops producing stuff, what do you think will happen to the richer place.
"Watties: If Watties, and others, were locally owned they would not be closing. And especially not closing if it was local family owned."
It may be fair to observe they would be less inclined to close if locally owned but local ownership would not protect a non profitable business forever....they would however perhaps have more incentive to pressure the government to ensure they dont face unfair competition.
Call me old and totally cynical but many of the comments relating to profitability miss the real reasons.
Many and often most of these closed manufacturers are profitable in strict sales minus costs equals profit terms. The real kicker is things like loading with debt and hollowing out or how much tax advantages elsewhere can be leveraged and many other financialising schemes I have no understanding of.
Or even just scale.
If you're a big multinational, would you spend money building or upgrading a plant in NZ that services a small population, or put that money into a larger facility somewhere more populated with cheaper labour.
The question is can that scale advantage overcome the disadvantages in energy, logistics, exchange rates etc.....for many processes Id suggest the are many areas where it isnt so...and processing vege would be one of them.
Frozen veges is high volume, low price, low margin. It's exactly the sort of process that you need big scale to make it competitive.
We are not comparing handmade with automated here...we are comparing essentially the same systems at different scale. Once a critical mass is achieved there is little advantage in upsizing.
It still keeps scaling. For a start, you have to run multiple layers of the same managerial setup. Multiple distribution centres. Divided purchasing power.
Don't get me wrong, I really don't like large multinationals. But it's economies of scale in effect. And like, the inevitability of capitalism.
It dosnt keep scaling however...consider harvesting as an example. you can have a combine with a 30' cutter to harvest a 30 h paddock....add more harvesters (and ancillaries) and you do not improve output per input. As said once the system reaches critical mass (the most efficient system to achieve the task involved) increasing scale does not improve output per input. The reality is as Redcows notes, matters outside of production that have the impact....be they tax breaks, subsidies, energy costs etc.
A factory in Asia is not inherently more efficient than one in NZ, there are other factors at play.
Yesterday you were telling me you reckoned energy was a higher overhead than labour, and I laid out to you the cost differences between energy and labour in the sector. And that's only in the sector, you still have all the costs of ancillary services.
You're older than me, surely you can remember how much things like socks and t shirts cost in say, the 80s. 40 years later, you can rock down to KMart and buy a t shirt for 7 bucks an jeans for 20. The main difference is labour cost and scale.
Why you think frozen veges is any different is beyond me. This is a phenomenon observed for 100s of years.
A factory in Asia is not inherently more efficient than one in NZ, there are other factors at play
Efficiency is often measured in cost. It costs less to do business elsewhere than NZ. There's no magic or conspiracy involved. We just like to tell ourselves there's some evil corporate skullduggery involved preventing us from perpetually increasing lifestyles. Or if we built more power stations that'd overcome the massive cost hurdles we have to do anything.
"Efficiency is often measured in cost."
And there is the nub....how is cost measured?
I have no idea whether I am older than you or not but I do indeed remember the relative prices of manufactured goods in the 1980s and even a bit before....the efficiency of production methods has improved (though seldom the quality) globally since then, and that is the point I continue to make....the efficiency gains (system) are (currently) available to all, albeit upon the back of a global JIT system, which happens to be unravelling.
To repeat....The question is can that scale advantage overcome the disadvantages in energy, logistics, exchange rates etc...and I again suggest that (short of the interventions alluded to by Redcows) they should not in this instance.
You say "The main difference is labour cost and scale."....and I submit that scale has little to do with it, and that the volume of labour required should not be sufficient to overcome the additional costs of logistics to reach our market...in this example, though I concede that in labour intensive industries there is greater opportunity for those to be overcome.
And there is the nub....how is cost measured?
By a business? Usually in money terms.
the efficiency of production methods has improved
How far do you think we've advanced making t shirts and jeans since the 80s? Or even a microwave?
The question is can that scale advantage overcome the disadvantages in energy, logistics, exchange rates
Well we established yesterday that many economies have cheaper energy than us (and their energy is often way more fossil fuel based). So that's not a consideration. Logistics isn't that much of a hurdle either for a reason I outline below. These are all fairly marginal costs in the scheme of things, when your largest input cost is 10x higher.
I submit that scale has little to do with it, and that the volume of labour required should not be sufficient to overcome the additional costs of logistics to reach our market
It's often cheaper to send a container from China to NZ than it is to send one around NZ. You're talking cents per kilo.
You didnt once mention labour.
The cost of energy is a global price...oil costs the same for asia as it does in nz, how it is treated is the variable. the same applies to materials, the markets are global....the main exception being (largely) labour... which operates within national standards.
So we have a global market for materials/energy but national economies for labour.
Again....the labour output is key and the variation in labour output between factories around the globe using essentially the same systems is not great.
The determinants are other
You didnt once mention labour.
It'll be a key consideration when a company is looking to build or upgrade a facility. And operate it.
The cost of energy is a global price...oil costs the same for asia as it does in nz, how it is treated is the variable.
The cost for oil is a global spot market. That's one type of energy.
The cost for electricity varies greatly by country.
The cost of fuel within a country can vary - for instance our fuel has 75 cents tax chucked on it. Parts of Asia are a fraction of that.
the same applies to materials
There's a global price for a material, and then below that, varying prices based on the quantity (so an example of how scale makes a difference). A frozen food manufacturer in NZ is going to pay more for its materials than a larger one making 20x the volume.
It appears to me our point of dispute is the level of labour involved in these operations and consequent decisions. I submit it is lower than you appear to believe however we cannot know unless we had access to the cost structures of both Watties and those companies that are able to undercut them in their (distant) home market.
It appears to me our point of dispute is the level of labour involved in these operations and consequent decision
It's the largest consideration. But I also used an example of how economies of scale come into play as above regarding how input costs scale the more you buy of something.
I submit it is lower than you appear to believe
But based on what? Labour input as a percentage of costs varies somewhat by sector and process, but we could say 20-40% is fairly common. If your labour is 10x more expensive, and the industry wants a margin of 5%, that labour savings will be very hard to ignore. I can't think of many other input costs you can vary to that sort of degree.
"But based on what?"
The same thing your assumption of 20-40% is based upon, an outsiders estimate of the likely....and I suggest your 'guess' is high, and you think mine is low.
Remembering that 'labour costs' estimates include factors other than labour itself, including the likes of taxation....and that industry wide estimates covers a wide range of business types.
Mines based on what I know of labour costs as a percentage of costs across a wide range of businesses. For forestry, it's 50%, for dairy its 25%, horticulture and manufacturing its 20-40%, so I used 20-40% as a rough average.
Also not an outsider, I grow produce commercially, have a manufacturing business, and have owned or run others in other sectors. P and L sheets have been an annoying feature of my living for quite some time. The Labour line in them is a core component of whether I'm above or below water.
The list of industries you claim to have a finger in is indeed impressive.
Whats missing from the following statement....
"He said increasing utility, gas, and electricity prices and tough crop seasons, alongside global financial pressures had amounted to "the perfect storm".
https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/03/12/watties-boss-says-closures-due-to-a-…
The list of industries you claim to have a finger in is indeed impressive.
For the last 20 years I have usually had 3 businesses running concurrently at various stages of their lifespan. Most of those have been B2B, so I'm also networked into a range of other businesses, who handle everything from raw commodities to finished products. I definitely have to know how my end works, and it's fairly prudent knowing how theirs does too.
Whats missing from the following statement....
Speak to anyone in charge of a failed business and they will usually lean towards the issues being external. If that's the most sound rationale you can apply, we're going to struggle finding a middle ground.
Direct labour cost of 17.5% of turnover last filing.
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/docu…
If you're a big multinational, would you spend money building or upgrading a plant in NZ that services a small population, or put that money into a larger facility somewhere more populated with cheaper labour.
or why would you hire humans when AI can do the same jobs cheaper.... in a US Datacentre.
Can't eat data centres
Supposedly Iranian missiles and drones can
That (and others) is the unfair competition I referred to.
Sell our land to foreigners then?
The (US) rises in December and January were at more than a +4.5% annualised rate
The US economy expanded an annualised +0.7% in Q4-2025
That is negative real rates and "stagflation" to be very clear.
GDP growth is measured after inflation isn’t it?
I wouldn’t say the US is in stagflation, they have been growing quite well. Potentially heading that way I guess.
Why is there an image of indigenous people dancing in grass skirts ? I could not see any correlation with any of the financial news today ?
Because it’s pasifika festival in Auckland this weekend. Many of the images posted do not have relevance to financial news. Do they need to?
Worth going to if you like seafood
Exactly.
Why is there an image of indigenous people dancing in grass skirts ? I could not see any correlation with any of the financial news today ?
Indigenous people are dancing and laughing at us all around the world.
"You idiots have everything and live like spacemen, and the best you can do is blow each other up? I'm going back to the beach".
None of the Weekend Briefing articles do Yves. Maybe stay in Europe if you've such an issue which you seem to bring up from time to time.
Are people still seeing green shoots? Business owners seeing increased orders? Or has the war singed those green shoots? I suspect it’s another winter of discontent in NZ.
I don’t envy the new RBNZ governor. This would be the first time ever where I don’t even have an opinion of what she should do, every option seems terrible. I guess I’d be tempted by a 0.25% cut next review because otherwise it could be another year of recession. But you could easily argue the other way. Genuine stagflation in NZ most likely.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/macquarie-s-bank-warning-10pc-of-mortga…
There is going to be no jobs recovery = no housing recovery
AI changes everything
Remember when Windows 95 came out? All of a sudden we had computers that could do stuff we used to have to do on paper. Potentially it should have replaced many jobs, but I suspect it actually just created them.
Not saying AI is the same thing, but throughout history technology has never really reduced employment, it’s just changed it.
Until now. AI will reduce jobs.
And if there is a new job created , it has to be one AI cannot compete with, because it will do it better and cheaper then a human.
People who can drive AI are not new jobs, they are simply the survivors of the current workers.
We live in a consumer economy and you cannot consume without a job.
AI doesn't just allow the human to operate faster, it replaces the human as IT operates so much faster.
what does 10% unemployment look like - success?
Even if your job remains, 1:10 in your street will be mortgagee sales
The economy seems to be pretty good at inventing nothing jobs once old vocations get obsoleted. We'll just borrow money to pay for it.
Keynesian, baby.
People would have said that back then too.
AI can’t currently replace physical jobs, and that’s probably a long time away. To replace humans in jobs like contact centres it has to be integrated with the company’s backend systems, that will take a lot of manpower for every company to achieve and test. And even then there are potential legal issues when it gets stuff wrong which it will do.
At the moment I’d say all it can do is reduce headcount for certain types of jobs by helping those people with their job. There are very few jobs it will replace altogether in the next decade IMO.
You are clearly not using one of the higher-end, paid-for, AI tools, Jimbo.
I've mentioned before, but this assumes rapid uptake of new technology - silicon valley all over it sure but I'd hesitate to give our locals so much credit
Indeed.
I remember when email was getting into mass adoption. And we had internet, and wireless network. Communication has gone digital baby.
We were told of paperless offices, but because we have made communicating lots of information so fast and cheap we've just ended up generating exponentially as much waffle and printing much of it off.
There was a time when to create a chart you started with a pencil and compass. Now you can knock one up in 10 seconds. That didn’t mean lots of office workers were out of work, it just meant we chose to make lots more charts and presentations because they were essentially cheaper to produce.
I use AI constantly for my job, it’s not reducing my work hours, just increasing the amount of things I can do. I suspect that will be the same for a lot of jobs. Not for all of course, some careers will struggle.
When I first started out, construction plans were hand drawn on paper. You'd get 1, maybe two revisions for a project.
Now that you can just modify them on a computer, some projects can get dozens of revisions, many often while construction is underway. So we saved money making drawings but we spent more of it having to re-adjust everything in the real world on the fly.
I run an air conditioning business. It is the off season (summers gone, no cold snaps yet) however all my leads have dried up and quotes haven’t landed. It’s happened very quickly. People have closed their wallets on big ticket items. I imagine it’s a quiet weekend for the car salesmen.
Unless it's an EV.
Have you tended to find in the last 12-18 months your customer base being older/more monied than a few years back?
They are the 30% of the population with funds. All others are skinny cats with skinny wallets.
Ayup.
No money no honey.
Yea it’s definitely a boomer market, plus landlords being forced reluctantly to keep compliant with healthy homes.
I run an air conditioning business. It is the off season (summers gone, no cold snaps yet) however all my leads have dried up and quotes haven’t landed.
I was going to think about heat pump this year, instead paying daughter to help me with firewood and bought a log splitter
We used to run fire friday-sunday but now in winter run it 7 days a week. Plenty of dead gums still to fall over on my place and starting to plant more. Luckily Auckland doesn't really ever get that cold in winter.
I just have one big f off fire and circulate it's heat through the house.
One of the huge advantages of not living in a city.
We have ducted heat pump running all night all year round (it’s almost always either too cold or too hot outside, we seem to only get two seasons these days). Its very nice (although perhaps a bit boring always being the same temperature)
The mighty Chris Joye in the AFR on the inflation crisis. Nothing particularly startling here but descriptive of events. In the Aussie backdrop, Chris says:
All roads lead back to out-of-control public spending. It will be fascinating to see if politicians can continue to dupe voters by raising taxes and spending yet more of their money on pet projects in a vainglorious quest to keep themselves in power.
Default rates and insolvencies are poised to breach recent historical highs, severely stressing lenders and borrowers alike. For many investors who were previously insensitive to credit risks and illiquidity premiums, the focus will turn, laser-like, to underlying asset quality and the ability to access their capital.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/the-next-inflation-crisis-ha…
Friday saw
"US-listed ETF shorts on the Prime book increased +10% yesterday: the 2nd largest 1-day increase on Goldman's record."
Probably nothing
Trump is now targeting oil infrastructure, this is going to escalate now...
Oil will go higher as terminals and refineries are hit.
Yes and high for longer. Any ceasefire will mean months or a year of work, to replace tanking and refinery infra.
So inflation is now off to the races. With it, interest rates. Will we breach 10%???
no this will cause about 1.2% lift in inflation
Between bitumen and petrol rises theres a risk NZTA and councils to have significnalty underbudgeted for the cost of road maintenance and any national roads of significance underway or about to be will be sweating.
Big if true.
The United Arab Emirates is preparing a series of extraordinary measures targeting investors who attempt to withdraw their capital from Dubai as economic and security pressures mount in the region. According to information obtained by Dark Box from financial and legal sources familiar with policy discussions in the Emirates, authorities are considering actions that would significantly restrict the ability of business figures to move funds or leave the country after announcing plans to exit their investments.
The move comes amid growing concern inside the United Arab Emirates about the financial consequences of the current regional crisis, particularly the economic disruption triggered by retaliatory strikes linked to Iran. These developments have shaken investor confidence in Dubai, a city whose prosperity is heavily dependent on international capital flows, global logistics networks, and the perception of stability.
https://the-darkbox.com/dubai-tightens-the-exit-door-dark-box-investiga…
Dubai and many of the Gulf States are toast. Dubai especially, as they don't even have much oil left. Foreigners are fleeing, the tourism is goneburger, and the state is going to want to stop capital flight.
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