Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news Qatar has being hit hard by Iranian missiles today, upending the global trade in natural gas. In fact, it is clear now there will be a protracted energy shock that everyone needs to adjust to. The impacts are ahead and aren't going away.
Elsewhere, US initial jobless claims came in at +190,000 last week, a slightly bigger dip than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.1 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago but still above two year-ago levels.
The Philly Fed factory survey for March rose from February although that wasn't due to new orders, which retreated.
Clearly these businesses are not involved in new home construction, because new home sales fell sharply nationally in February to their lowest level since early 2023.
US wholesale inventories fell in January, and their inventory-to-sales ratio fell even sharper. So there is plenty of capability to rebuild inventories to 'normal' levels - but clearly most businesses aren't doing that, choosing to boost cashflow with lower inventory levels.
Elsewhere there were a number of central bank policy rate decisions released overnight. China held its Prime Loan Rates unchanged at record low levels. Taiwan left its policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. Japan also held unchanged at 0.75%. Switzerland held at 0%. Sweden held at 1.75% (link for Governor Breman.) And the ECB was also unchanged at 2.15%. There were others, like the Czech Republic (3.5%), England (3.75%), Moldova (5.0%), and none of those changed either.
In Australia, their jobless rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from the 4.1% forecast and levels seen in the previous two months. This is back to the November level. Full time jobs fell -30,500 while part-time jobs rose +79,500. Their participation rate hit a four-month high of 66.9%. (As at December 2025, the NZ jobless rate was 5.4% and will be updated for Q1-2026 on May 6.)
And staying in Australia, the Cat5 tropical cyclone packing 260kmph winds is now hitting Far North Queensland, but it way up there above Cairns and Port Douglas which isn't taking the brunt of it. It may affect Weipa, the source of bauxite for our Bluff smelter, however.
Global container freight rates were up only +2% last week to be down only -4% from year-ago levels. In fact these rates have been remarkable stable out of China. But inbound rates to Europe jumped +10%, and transatlantic rates into the US dived -35%. But twisted supply chain pressures will likely change this ahead. Bulk freight rates rose +7.5% in the past week to be +24% higher than year ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is much flatter at +41 bps (-13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is slightly flatter at +16 bps (-2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +60 bps (+6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just under 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 2.27%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.02%, up +9 bps from yesterday and its highest since 2011. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today up +8 bps at 4.71%.
Wall Street has started Thursday trade with the S&P500 down another -0.5%. Overnight, European markets were sharply lower, between Paris's -2.0% and Frankfurt's -2.8%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up another sharp +3.4%. Hong Kong ended its Thursday session down -2.0%, and Shanghai fell -1.4%. Singapore ended down -0.7%. The ASX200 closed down -1.7%. But the NZX50 closed on Thursday down -2.0%.
The price of gold will start today down -US$293 from yesterday at US$4587/oz. Silver is down a massive -US$6.50 at US$70.50/oz.
American oil prices are holding up at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$107/bbl. Both were higher earlier. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. They are talking about charging fees to transit safely. (A tariff !!)
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from yesterday, still just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 82.9 AUc. We are down -80 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are basically holding at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up less than +10 bps at just under 62.1.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,465 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.
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115 Comments
The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. They are talking about charging fees to transit safely.
They're also now actively targeting energy production/storage in the Gulf States.
Whatcha gonna do Don-don. Probably continue pooping the bed and blaming it on the cat.
The answer is simple really and I must admit that I am surprised Trump hasn't already done it. From a strictly military perspective the US should stop all traffic, especially Iranian aligned traffic transiting the strait until all military action is stopped.
That doesn't mean I approve of what is happening. It is simply looking at the local tactical picture and considering what strategies are required to bring this to the quickest end. If no fuel of any form is getting to the other countries of the world, then no fuel should transit the strait period.
I agree
They would need a significant navy presence in the strait/gulf to do that and so far they have been reluctant to do that because they know they would be an easy target.
Better to persuade allied Navies to help out, if they get hit it won't affect his domestic approval as much.
The answer is simple really and I must admit that I am surprised Trump hasn't already done it. From a strictly military perspective the US should stop all traffic, especially Iranian aligned traffic transiting the strait until all military action is stopped.
So you blockade the Strait.
That's two blockades
Who do you think blinks first?
Trump already has a few block(head) aides
Iran is stopping all the other traffic. The US only has to stop that which is getting through. The IRGC will try to force it, but will get beaten down.
This will become like Ukraine, a war of attrition. Israel and Trump have opened a significant can of worms without a comprehensive plan of how to manage all aspects of it, or it seems a comprehensive understanding of how tight a grip the IRGC and the Basij have on the population. I can't see a complete resolution without boots on the ground. and that means casualties. How far will Trump be prepared to go? His hypocrisy (and ego) knows no bounds. The old question resurfaces, what will it take to rein him in and keep him in check?
The US/Israeli action is already destroying the Gulf (allies?) economies....not to mention the rest of the worlds', do you think they should add to that disaster by stopping even more supply?
I wonder if it's too late for Qatar to ask for its' plane back?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhxIcZQDUMI
No wonder Netanyahu is under pressure
Is Netanyahu alive?
He hasn't been seen for about 10 days. They're busy posting AI videos on his X account for proof of life
Seen today making a speech.
Heres the link from today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAvEsAnca8A
Pay very close attention to the right sleeve around the 1.04 minute mark...
Heavy cufflinks?
I wonder if it's too late for Qatar to ask for its' plane back?"
Comment of the day
Brilliant!
I'd love to see what their response would be.
Iran is stopping all the other traffic. The US only has to stop that which is getting through.
And then?
Iran is quite the distance from entering negotiations. They're already impoverished, so affecting their economics won't yield a fast result. And people benefitting from Iranian trade won't be able to exert enough pressure on them to change tack.
"The US only has to stop that which is getting through."
Suppose it depends what sort of response the US would get from China if it blocked their oil?
It's a bit of a Russia v Ukraine proxy already
Get a grip Murray. Ensure the block on the strait is complete??? Really ?
Armchair warrior playing chess in my view.
The thing is mad enough already. Please don't don't add to the madness.
Seems that there is a law of the seas, says non belligerent ships are free to transit the straits. You know, rules. Such a pain.
How about we do something mature, call for immediate ceasefire? Stand up to the bullies in the 3 countries involved.
Do you think Trump and Netanyahu would suddenly develop a functional auditory capacity? Iran? Well, they have reason to be aggreived.
Only two countries started this - actually one country plus a deranged fool.
Zionism is a topic we avoid via PC-ness, but perhaps that was a mistake on our part.
Oh, so it's not just about resources 😝
And do you think diplomats the world over haven't already called for that cease fire and said "just what the F**K do you think you're doing?"
While what you say is technically correct, it is also naive in the extreme. International law didn't stop Putin, whom Trump looks up to. Go back and listen to or read the script of Carney's speech at Davos. He spells it out there.
Fox News knows how to end it. No mention at the moment on their web site of any of it save for a young Iranian wrestler being publicly hanged for protesting.
I think the issue for the US going down that road is that Iran is an unknown quantity regarding what they're capable of if a direct confrontation were to take place in the strait. Hence why Trump wanted an allied effort.
Even he isn't stupid enough to risk the navy going it alone. Either that or someone has managed to stop his stupidity. Probably the latter.
So it looks like central banks worldwide are choosing to ignore the inflationary effects of the war. It’s feeling similar to post Covid.
When Covid hit we got massive emergency rate cuts, same with the GFC. When there’s a war which is obviously inflationary, crickets.
We thought COVID was going to be like a zombie apocalypse, and did a rather significant and sharp over reaction.
Maybe we'll just sleepwalk into an actual apocalypse.
Good luck to any official trying to accurately pre-empt this clusterfudge.
Central banks are a bit gun shy as many economies are still feeling the aftermath of the previous rate hikes. Doing the old wait and hope. But if the luck isn’t in their side they’ll have to increase the OCR big and fast instead of a few small increases now.
I'm still a bob either way.
If gas goes up a buck or two for us, that sounds bad. Elsewhere, that increase is as much as some people's hourly pay. Per litre.
So we have parts of Asia and elsewhere moving to 4 day weeks, or some economic activity just isn't happening at all.
And this is just early days.....
You’d have to be pretty crazy to build an economy that relied on cheap imported fuel and LNG wouldn’t you?
That describes the EU pretty well.
Its also the NZ blue team's fantasy.
If I was in government I'd be spending every last buck on electrification (and I am not conveniently saying that now, I have been for a while). The 3 billion a year tax cut could have bought a lot of EV subsidy / solar subsidy / electricity generation / electric rail over 10 years. A proper investment in the future for a change...
The technology doesn't really exist to electrify our agricultural sector.
And you need that or you can't pay for much.
Seems we're about to find out how our ag sector will work without fossil energy input?
And the rest of the economy.
We can drive our EVs to empty malls and jobs that don't exist.
But you could electrify everything that was easy to electrify, leaving the diesel etc. for the sectors that were harder to electrify.
It's not black and white, it's about moving in the sensible, resilient direction, even if it's not perfect.
But you're focusing on the least important part of the economy first.
Japan has arguably one of the best electrified rail networks on earth. No need for a car.
Japan still requires more fossil fuels per person than NZ to operate.
If we’d electrified everything possible by now we’d still be in the same position? Seems unlikely.
In this extremely unlikely hypothetical scenario, we'd wouldn't be in the exact same position, but we still face fundamentally the same problems.
And we are only talking about our own domestic position, this is going to have downstream problems in many of the things we import to survive.
And a country this size can never be self sufficient without or lives looking fundamentally different
Electrification doesn't do long-haul flight or heavy transport - and you have to ask why those anyway?
And nobody has produced electrification infrastructure - PV, windmills, dams, grids - without using the higher EROEI of fossil energy.
So you're advocating a slowing of the inevitable descent - which I agree with.
But the potential to waste effort - waste the remaining fossil energy, if any comes - on a doomed attempt to repower this form of society?
No point.
I’m arguing we should reduce our dependence on imported fuel. I agree we can’t eliminate it at the present time.
I guess we could do the opposite and become more dependent eg LNG, if we can’t get the perfect outcome may as well make it a bad as possible?
You open up a far bigger debate PDK. There is no vision or plan for what any "future society" would look like because all the politicians are in denial. What visions there are are somewhat nightmarish as people judge you on things you have no control over, like heritage and ethnicity. But the bigger, more immediate problem is the persistent clinging to established, flawed economic models that are proven to not work and has led to our governments exporting real jobs and allowed the destruction of most of our manufacturing capabilities and skills, and oversaw the deterioration of most of our infrastructure. The still grasp to the claim that diplomacy can fix everything.
It's funny because diplomacy is a form of conflict management and I stirred the pot years ago during a CM course when I told the instructor that it only takes one to create a conflict, but at least two to stop it. She didn't like it at all.
Every point PDK.
You can lay down and die. Or work to fix it. Starting from where we are now.
I largely agree with your view of the problem. But we can still build solutions, imperfect and difficult as those are.
"And this is just early days....."
Yes, indeed but a decision should be made earlier rather than later. War is mostly about wealth and trade. If practically the whole world realize they are being held to ransom by one state then the decision should be relatively simple regardless of it being possibly repugnant.
It is an interesting situation. Israel exists because of the decisions of a large number of nations. A large number of nations need shipping routes to stay safe and open, especially exporters like the Arab oil states. A large number of nations bear some responsibility for this mess.
Can the world afford Iran to have such control? Not if Iran is totally unreasonable. Iran has made a wise move in putting a price on ships transiting the strait. They know if the cost is too high, like no transit, that will lead to their conquest with ground troops. Marching on Tehran and restoring the Shah may be all that is required. However if Iran set the price at affordable they may just win this.
Iran is pursuing reasonably satisfactorily a strategy of playing to its strengths and not wasting too much effort on where it can’t compete.
I argue the world simply cannot afford Iran to have such influence over key shipping routes and world economics. They also have significant reach into the Red Sea through their proxies. If they win they will have even more influence. It will come down to what is affordable. The IRGC needs to carefully play to its strengths from now on or risk fatally overreaching.
I would have to agree with you on that Zach. They're an extremist government arming and funding proxies across the ME to gain influence while hiding behind religion. But the terror they inflict on their own as well as others marks them as evil.
Likely they are now even more extremist. The old venerated Ayatollah is gone along with a very high percentage of the other government hierarchy. The new Ayatollah has been appointed more or less by the Republican guard and it is quite obvious that body now holds the keys to power. When you consider the persona, policies and activities of the former IRG general Soleimani before he was eliminated on Trump’s orders in 2020 it is clear that while the IRG is intact and control the streets Iran is under their actual control and as said the other day they are not at all the negotiating types either.
What we know about Iran is built by our media. Building theories on that is pretty much useless.
But never underestimate the level of patriotism that is built by being bombed.
And of course, the wars the USA creates are a terrorist creation exercise. But they don't know that.
What "you" know maybe. I know a few Iranians. Here's a couple of facts for you; most that are away from Iran don't support their government. They are all proudly Persian not Iranian. Yes the are concerned about America, well guess what so are we.
KH it seems you're the critic of the week this week. How do you think this should be brought to a stop/ Diplomacy has not worked, but Trump doesn't have a strategy. What is your solution. Try giving something rather than criticising others. I note in an early response to me you don't offer an alternative.
My suggestion Murray is "don't do it".
It is amply demonstrated that bombing and of invasion seeking regime change leads to disaster. Mostly dead inhabitants.
I argue the world simply cannot afford Iran to have such influence over key shipping routes and world economics.
It's not really a problem until someone starts throwing rocks at them.
Perhaps it's not Iran who shouldnt be exerting so much influence.
Israel and the States have started a war and are socializing the costs to most of the rest of us.
Agreed - and the Iranian leadership is a result of continued repression - by us in the West - due to us wanting the oi under them. Otherwise why would we have bothered? Sand?
If it's "not really a problem" then "socializing the costs" is not a problem also?
Ones a problematic but relatively inert Regime
The other effects the prosperity of the rest of the planet.
When I started pointing out the ramifications of Trump last year, you sorta shrugged it off and though he "might" actually be a good thing.
How's your confidence today compared to then.
Good question - no different.
The physics says descent - energy descent - is inevitable.
How it plays out is not discernable but using that uncertainty to claim that the descent is therefore uncertain, is flawed logic.
There is a valid argument that the faster the collapse, the more stocks remain to re-book whatever comes later; a smooth descent has the potential to wring the last drops from the tea-towel. Trump has certainly accelerated the collapse. Is that what you meant by 'good thing'?
Influence indeed.
In 2025, the Israel lobby maintained a strong grip on U.S. politics, shaping congressional debates, foreign aid allocations, and Washington’s Middle East stance. Critics warned its influence undermines balanced policymaking and democratic accountability, while supporters argued it reinforces vital security ties and ensures continued bipartisan backing for Israel.
High-profile recipients of AIPAC contributions included House Speaker Mike Johnson, who received approximately $654,000, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, whose campaign received nearly $933,000. Such a sum shows not only campaign tactics but also the Israel lobby’s persistent focus on securing long-term influence on both the country’s political aisles.
Don't forget Miriam Adelson and her $250M (directly and indirectly) for DJT's 2024 election campaign, plus an additional $250M pledge to get DJT in for a third term.
Miriam Adelson: Who is the Israeli billionaire backing Trump? | Middle East Eye
Donald Trump Offered $250M to Run for a Third Term - Newsweek
You said... "Israel exists because of the decisions of a large number of nations."
Yes, Zachary, and that same "large number of nations" should be beginning to finally wake the hell up to the fact that they created an obscenely apartheid and genocidal entity - a totally out of control monster. And you suggest that we should all back that?
This is the rampaging entity that, with the help of the US, threatens the security of the entire planet to the stage that yet another completely contrived war could pose an existential threat to humanity.
The inevitable multiple decades of war caused by deploying ground troops into Iran's vast and mountainous terrain would only result in yet another tragic bloodbath for millions.
Have you learnt nothing from the tens of millions that these two nations have already slaughtered, maimed, and displaced, squandering trillions of dollars in the process?
The resolve of the Iranians means that Tehran could most likely only be taken by a nuclear attack - and to what end?
This possibility of a nuclear escalation is the part that should scare the living crap out of every one of us.
And to think that all Iran ever asked for was that their national security and sovereignty be treated with respect, to be left alone to determine their own political and democratic destiny, and to be able to trade amicably with the world in a cooperative manner. One in which their civilisation could survive and contribute to humanity at large, in harmony with the rest of the world.
The following needs to be said, Zachary, and I make no apology for voicing it.
This brand of parroted Western-Neocon, groupthink, and hubris is precisely what could get us all killed.
I note that this site is riddled with this regurgitated narrative, and I fully expect the resident cosy club, who BTW, conveniently cower behind nom de plumes, to come out at me yet again with their daggers in full force. They have done so right from day one.
I haven't posted any links, as this same element, by decree, declares any link that I post as being derived from a Russian asset. BTW, these same busy-bee oracles even try to rule the very format of how we should all comment on ICNZ.
Plus, apparently, anything that doesn't support a neocon narrative is, by their definition, Russian propaganda - no doubt, even when it comes directly from the mouth of a British Naval Commodore.
One of them, the extremely courageous Steve Jermy, just in the last few days, declared that in his opinion, Russia and China are the only two adults in the room that are remotely capable of diffusing this escalating US/Israel-created cluster-f%#k. I won't even bother to post the interview link.
I witnessed similar nonsense posted by you last night, suggesting that NZ, Aus, Europe, etc need to side with Israel and the US.
You appear blissfully unaware that the two crazed genocidal lunatic regimes, that you suggest we support, both contain a strong element of Sampson Option crazed nutjobs ensconced within their war councils, advisors, and cabinets - including the Hegseths, Lindsey Grahams, Netanyahus, etc.
These 'people' are rabid evangelical rapturists who are some of the most highly resourced and dangerous creatures that ever walked the planet.
They actually get off on the concept of a ME-based life-on-Earth ending apocalypse, simply because they fancy that they can prove, once and for all, that their pet god-construct was both the centre and creator of the universe all along.
ONCE AND FOR ALL... being the profoundly scary part.
I await the daggers and the wailing from the resident omniscient cosy-club oracles
Col
Colin the discussion re Israel has risen on a number of occasions on this site. Most realise that the creation of Israel was rooted in anti-semitism post WW2. While the world were appalled at what the Nazi's did, old religious prejudices influence the politics of the time and no-one wanted to give displaced Jews a home. Thus "Israel" and in doing so they created yet another atrocity that has only escalated since.
They have done so right from day one
Uhhhh, your very first posts here involved calling others names whenever anyone replied to one of your posts.
I've still seen you doing this in recent weeks.
But it's not you, its everyone else. I imagine that's the story of your life.
Yet another one of your trademark projections, Pa1nter - you are so utterly predictable.
This is the last time I will bother to respond to any of your infantile troublemaking.
Clearly, you fancy yourself as a self-appointed and omniscient gatekeeper for ICNZ... go for it, the floor is yours.
Someone had to say it!
If people don't like what they're saying challenged they're too emotionally attached to their ideas
You didn't answer my question above though. If your confidence in Trump last year was say, 80%, how's it looking today?
I know, but "infantile troublemaking" made me laugh.
Sounds even better if you use an Emperor Palpatine voice.
Interest5ing comment from an interesting positer...
:)
What we need, is for everyone to divest their personal agendas - hard to do, I know. But if we are to negotiate the next few years in coherent fashion - and the pressure is only going to get greater - then we need a higher level of debate.
I have no trouble with much of what Painter posits, not with the output of CM. The latter, however, posits as a Titanic passenger, while denying the sinking. As do others here. Eh?
:)
PDK everyone divesting their personal agendas....
That's a revolutionary and welcome concept in the modern, instant, social media era that is pock marked with more rabbit holes than in the height of the rabbit plague.
One element I'm grateful for Interest.co enabling is the diversity of perspectives expressed by commentors.
Agreed. Very thankful for the broad debate we see here and differing perspectives from different folk with different experiences and knowledge. Long may it continue.
I agree with LouB, but tell me, how do most people manage to divest themselves of a personal agenda when that agenda is rooted in their survival instinct? That's human psychology.
While the sentiment is admirable, rewards in another life really don't cut it. But that's not the real problem. How do we get people who are perhaps not so charismatic, but who do have a vision for everyone and the country as a whole, that we all can agree with, voted into office when the very gate keepers of those offices seem hell bent on making sure no one like that gets any where near where they need to be to influence change?
This is the last time I will bother to respond to any of your infantile troublemaking
You said that the last time.
So is this the last, last time?
Clearly, you fancy yourself as a self-appointed and omniscient gatekeeper for ICNZ
Robust debate is how we can test our theories, and potentially make better theories and understandings.
Your default response when someone highlights potential flaws in your views and interpretations is to call them a Nazi, pro-someone, MSM shill, pro-war, etc. That is intellectually and emotionally vacant.
I can appreciate the argument Colin and you wont get too many barbs in return from me.
I'm really just trying to predict how things will go.
My main point was that governments would find themselves in a position where they are forced to back the US and Israel for economic reasons. A sort of devil's calculus. The Gulf Arab States may well be there now and others could follow. The combined wealth and also the military spending of the Gulf Arab States alone dwarfs that of Iran. It doesn't make sense, at the primitive level where government's operate, to allow Iran to dominate the region. If other nations sense economic doom they too will turn violent.
Iran is a significant troublemaker in the region. Do they really need to support a wide network of proxy militias across the Middle East—spanning at least seven countries? This does increase the likelihood of becoming a target.
I doubt that a ground war in Iran would last decades. Something like the Boxer rebellion war is likely to work. Eight or so nations, Gulf States led by the US making one drive toward and taking Tehran. Re-establish the Shah. Make Persia great again. Cakewalk, home by Christmas.
Nuclear armaments hang over the world like the sword of Damocles. The fact is. Like it or lump it, Israel is so armed and they would argue that if they were not so, given the unconcealed threats of their extermination that abound, they would no longer exist. Initially the main banner for this attack was to nullify Iranian capacity to nuclear strike Israel and thus fulfil their threat. Of course that would produce an Israeli counterstrike in kind. That in turn would decimate the entire Middle East. What is now very clear is that neither Israel nor the USA has any exact intelligence of the status of the Iranian nukes ability, present or future but it seems certain that the Iranian forces will now be even more determined to complete their mission. The likelihood of a successful ground invasion looks as remote as it would be costly and difficult. What may happen is a rinse and repeat threat to the Iranians. Either give up the nukes or expect that your country will be pummelled down from border to border, again and again.
Assuming of course that Irans adversaries remain capable and committed to such. Irans strategy of outlasting that commitment and capability is not unrealistic.
The US' (and by extension, Israel's) motivations appear to be driven by the perception of a closing window of opportunity...and not because of nukes.
Rather imponderable isn’t it. Can’t recall any nation ever being put under siege on an intermittent and open ended war footing which would be conducted virtually remotely.
Establish the Shah?
Read: give us in the West back access to the oil under YOUR feet.
Read: allow us to steal from you - while telling ourselves we are as pure as snow and those others... aren't.
Reza Pahlavi, waiting and ready.
Something like the Boxer rebellion war is likely to work. Eight or so nations, Gulf States led by the US making one drive toward and taking Tehran
Couple of issues
- Taking Tehran doesn't resolve much, because Irans forces and command are dispersed. Oh, and it'd be a bloody urban battle amoung a civilian population.
- The Gulf States' expensive militaries are set up for defensive posturing. Light on troops, few reserves, and not a very good track record for effective military offensives.
Likely, it'd be Vietnam in the sand.
The plan relies on most of the people accepting the Shah and welcoming the ousting of the current regime.
The current regime is the Iranian Republican Guard and they ain’t going anywhere. Why should they this situation is exactly why they were formed, developed and installed. The people have no ability to arm themselves in terms of a rebellion and the IRG is aware there are no counter forces gathering on the border and by now figuring out that is not going to happen.
And welcoming their girls school bombing overlords.The ones that just blew away both their oil and gas field infrastructure that they'd need going forward
Have you seen an actual map of Iran, have you seen how far a allied force would need to travel from the gulf to Tehran and across what sort of terrain.
The drive is about 1,400 km and takes 14–18 hours. The terrain is mostly flat to gently rolling, with wide, modern highways for most of the route.
Not saying they should, just that it could be feasible.
18hrs in a car without drones getting shot at you, and your logistics chain.
If it was going to happen there would be distinct material indications of that by now. America is not going to risk assets and casualties and will continue to engage from a distance. Trump may soon declare sufficient of the objectives have been achieved, disengage and withdraw. Except it might as per big Arnold the Terminator’s famous line -“I’ll be back!”
They're moving smaller forces in, Marines, and potentially Rangers. A few thousand troops.
Potentially, a limited mission to either secure Uranium stocks or take Kharg Island. Then say "that was our mission all along", and leave.
Doesn't mean the Iranians stop though.
That's promoting a West is best ethos. Personally, I doubt the validity of that. The capitalist, consumerist, materialist economy developed on steroids by vested Western powers, has marginalised countries and people's. Conflict seems a predictable inevitability at the fundamental organism level of striving to survive. The manifestation of such conflict is only limited be creative imagination.
Thanks, Zachary - I will refer you to this article, written by a "Russian asset" as deemed by some of the resident ICNZ oracles.
This simple seven-point peace plan was forsaken, and now humanity is facing the tragic prospect of an escalating kinetic world war.
Here is a seven-point peace plan in which all parties would benefit. Israel would gain peace and security. Palestine would achieve statehood. Iran would win an end to economic sanctions. The U.S. would win an end to costly and illegal wars fought on Israel’s behalf, as well as the risks of nuclear proliferation if the current violence continues. The Middle East would win economic development, security, and justice.
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First, an immediate cease-fire would apply across the entire region—and the cease-fire would include an immediate release of all hostages and prisoners.
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Second, the U.N. Security Council would vote upfront to welcome Palestine as the 194th U.N. Member State on the June 4, 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel and Palestine could subsequently agree on mutually desired border adjustments.
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Third, Israel would withdraw from all territories occupied since 1967. U.N.-mandated international forces would ensure a peaceful, orderly transition; a transfer of Palestinian territories to Palestinian authorities; and mutual security for both Israel and Palestine.
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Fourth, the territorial integrity and sovereignty would be guaranteed for Lebanon, Syria, and all states in the region. All non-state armed groups would be demilitarized, and foreign troops would be withdrawn.
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Fifth, the U.N. Security Council would adopt an updated nuclear agreement with Iran, including binding verification, and with all economic sanctions on Iran lifted alongside Iran’s verified compliance with the peaceful uses of its nuclear program.
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Sixth, Israel and all Arab and Islamic states would establish full diplomatic relations following the admission of the State of Palestine as a U.N. member state.
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Seventh, the Middle East nations would establish an international fund for rebuilding the war-torn parts of Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine, with contributions coming from within the region and from external sources.
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/middle-east-peace-plan
This might also help to explain why these "militia proxies" that you reference came to exist in the first place, especially when it was the US, with Israel's support, that spawned, nurtured and funded the various head-chopping terrorist brigades such as ISIS.
These 'moderate rebels"(sic) became infamous for their brutal violence and murderous assaults on civilians. ISIS, in particular, a self-described caliphate, has claimed responsibility for hundreds of terrorist attacks around the world, in addition to destroying priceless monuments, ancient temples and other buildings, and works of art from antiquity.
Regards
Col
Zac. The Boxer Rebellion ?
On the other hand China only regained it's greatness when they finally got rid of the foreigners.
I thought there was a return to 19th century Great Power plays?
By adopting foreign economic systems, after their own efforts starved 10s of millions.
And to think that all Iran ever asked for was that their national security and sovereignty be treated with respect, to be left alone to determine their own political and democratic destiny, and to be able to trade amicably with the world in a cooperative manner. One in which their civilisation could survive and contribute to humanity at large, in harmony with the rest of the world.
Hi Colin, would you like to speak to the assertion that Iran is funding terrorists/freedom fighters in other countries (for example Yemem)?
Central banks are energy-ignorant, retroactive and ultimately powerless (power is a physics term).
No energy equals no work equals no production.
The rest is Ponzis hoping to be underwritten by more production somewhere in the future.
And you can't eat the Mona Lisa.
It’s impossible to work out what to do for the RBNZ. So inflation is clearly going to spike. But activity is going to crater. So if they are sitting there deciding what to do you saying “ so we have a crisis of costs in NZ, Companies rolling over, food parcel demand up 200%, queues at the supermarket for supply shortages. CPI looks like it will hit 7% so we should hike rates.” How will that bring it back down? Zero chance.
but that said it’s their job.
impossible situation. Brennan will be earning her salary and to be honest I wouldn’t want to be in her shoes at 1mio a year
People said exactly that 4 years ago. Either the rate hikes worked as designed or it was just a fluke, either way may as well try.
"So it looks like central banks worldwide are choosing to ignore the inflationary effects of the war"
Hiking interest rates is not going to make imported oil cheaper. It's just going to make the economic pain of higher prices worse. Inflation won't be caused by increasing demand which can be suppressed by higher interest rates. Higher oil prices will lead to higher prices of all goods which will make people poorer. Increasing the cost of money is just going to make matters worse.
I agree, Yvil.
I just remembered that I guest-wrote a sequel of six articles 2 years ago for a very active LatAm-based geopolitical think-tank site. One of them broached this very subject. This morning, I revisited it to see how well, or badly, it had aged.
https://sovereignista.com/2024/03/12/economics-part-iv-interest-rates-m…
...copied and pasted from the article...
Poet Lawrence Ferlinghetti asked… “whether man must burn down his house to roast his pig…”
The current Western neo-classical monetary policy used to tackle inflation is precisely that scenario.
4. Safe Havens in times of financial strife – where are they now?
In the 1980s the level of total debt was so much less than it is now that the entire financial meltdown was at a totally different level. Today just the Govt debt alone is a death spiral in itself, with an extra $1 trillion added every 100 days.
In 2024 the U$ will have to issue $10 Trillion in Treasury paper to finance more deficits and to roll over old paper at much higher interest rates. The revised cost of this debt will rise from ~$1 Trillion to $1.5 Trillion. This is a debt spiral where more and more money has to be borrowed just to pay the interest back – paying down debt is not even on the radar.
All of the big 5 Western fiat currencies have this problem, including the three sometimes referred to as ‘default currencies’ – the dollar, the Yen, and the Swiss Franc – these used to be seen as safe havens to hide when the financial/geopolitical shite hit the fan. Now none of these are safe any longer, and so the pressure will really come onto these currencies as there are now viable alternatives that countries can use in their accelerating de-dollarisation strategies – these include…
- Gold stacking by central banks — this is at an all-time historical high at around 1000 tons per annum for the last few years – this is a no-brainer, especially now that Gold is a first-tier asset under the new Basel III regulations – this facilitates the process, out of plain sight.
- Silver – although not monetized like gold under the new international banking regulations, at a 90:1 valuation compared to gold at a historical average ratio of ~16:1 this has to render silver the most undervalued commodity on the planet – silver makes for a fascinating story given that it is both a monetary and industrial commodity and the fact that 85% is mined as a by-product of other PMs. Silver is the absolute wildcard when the big reveal of the Western fiat currencies commences – at 16:1 with gold at $2,500 oz that would put silver at $156, with gold at $3,000 – silver would be at $187, gold at $5,000 – $312, and at $10,000 – $624! Another way of looking at it is that silver has basically been demonetised since 1873, and if it reverted back to its primary historical value as a monetary metal, then it would be around 1/10 of the value of gold per oz, which with gold at $2000 per oz, that would price silver at $200. IOW two entirely different methods render a similar result.
- Any and all commodities that are needed in the future
- Crypto-currencies — if you trust them enough – although arguably some are more trustworthy than certain national currencies – they also carry the added bonus of being another way of disenfranchising the private banking cartel.
To me the Western safe havens no longer exist, as the main Western fiat currency economies now face a very unpleasant binary choice between either…
A. Severe hyper-inflationary depression, or
B. Severe and extended debt liquidating depression
....................................
Continued from the same link...
And...paraphrased/quoted from… https://soranomics.com/#content_20_fancybox-8
As Prof. Werner points out, it is not interest rates, but bank credit that determines economic growth, simply because ~97% of the money supply in our Western fiat currencies is created out of thin air by privately owned commercial banks.
There is zero basis for the official narrative that higher interest rates lead to lower growth and that low interest rates lead to high growth.
...end quote...
As with most aspects of eCONomics the quickest way to get straight to the truth is to simply assume the 180˚ polar opposite of the official narratives. Interest rates are simply not useful as a monetary policy tool – PERIOD! (23:30)
........................................
...and...
Karl Popper called this the ‘immunising stratagem’ which scientists fancied could guard their theories from being challenged by the use of reverse engineering in what became known as the ‘deductive approach.’ This is my interpretation of the process…
- Predetermine a conclusion that supports the banking cartels’ grand theft from Mainstreet.
- Invent a model that can give you that contrived conclusion.
- Identify the false maxims that can propagate the lie and present them as facts.
- Present these steps in the reverse order.
- The network that has the key to the giant printing press then buys up all of the networks and agencies required to manufacture the narrative, even when it is nothing more than a bunch of myths premised on deliberate lies.
SUMMARY: interest rate hikes are not an effective monetary tool to address inflation – on the contrary, they instantly feed inflation just as hikes in energy prices do – you do not even require the most basic economic nous to understand this principle – it should be self-evident to anyone with an IQ even approaching room temperature."
Regards
ColPS Oh dear - clearly this post doesn't fit the cosy-club's rigid spec either - what the hell, in for a penny, in for a pound.
How did dropping interest rates for the past 3 decades fix the deflation problem we had from importing cheap foreign goods and services that were measured in the CPI basket?
It didn't and was never going to but we did it for decades - but nobody complained because it meant cheaper mortgages and house prices rising 2-3x the general rate of inflation. But if we have to raise rates for a few months because we import some inflation, everyone wants to throw a tantrum? You can't have it both ways...dropping rates when you import deflation, but then think its a crazy idea to raise rates when you import inflation.
If the OCR wasn't going to fix the deflationary issue of using cheap foreign labour for our goods and services, but we persisted with the strategy for decades while decimating our local businesses/trades/manufacturing and production base, then why complain if we lift the OCR for a few months because we import some inflation from higher oil prices?
All you did here IO, is to avoid the topic of higher interest rates not being a cure for supply caused inflation, by talking about the opposite.
Interesting read on BBC this morning:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24de9e97vno
The EU facing some major challenges to energy security, ghg emissions targets, and principled positions re sanctions on Russia and nuclear electricity generation.
Right now I think the threads in the seams that hold the EU economic blok together are under stress.
The EU is important to us. It - plus Canada and Australia and one or two others - is our only chance of finding a peer-group during the long unwind ahead.
The US is a gone goose; removing Trump doesn't solve its physical problems.
China is going to be much more resilient, but they will see it as their turn to use us as cheap labour.
I witnessed heck of a drop in Gold and SIlver overnight down to $4,500 and $66 respectively, as I'm currently in Europe, Both have recovered quite bit since, but it was incredible watching Silver drop 13% and Gold 7% with what seemed no end in sight.
its a liquid market, as margin is required its easier to sell gold on margin then stocks... so down it goes, buy the dip.
Groups such as the plunge protection team have been ‘helping’ with everything from the oil price, US treasury yields, the US stockmarkets. G&S are just part of the process. This is more noticeable during the war. (No doubt there are other issues that could be weighing on the G&S prices.)
As I pointed out a few weeks ago, gold would drop if interest rates go up as people will start buying government bonds again as yields improve (and sell gold).
I get the feeling Aus is in the line for a big jobs hit. Their economy is underpinned by extracting and shipping metals. Cost of living is super high so a big wobble there could cause major problems.
Posted by Phoenix yesterday: Chris Joye
Only 47 days to go. Hope everyone has the horse and buggy fed and polished?
Seeds collected for next season, more like.
Otherwise what are you travelling for?
Actually that is exactly what I've done in the garden over the past few weeks PDK. Some lines I've had going for 30 years. I was just thinking about how long I've managed to keep them going yesterday. Just about lost my favourite tomato, down to my last 8 seeds last spring and this season has been so crap I was genuinely worried I could lose it. But no, I managed to rescue them from personal extinction. :-)
Yes - we have known this (or something like it) would happen, for years. Not an if, but a when.
So my better-half was a founding member of this: Our Food Network
Spin-offs include seed-swap get-togethers (crop-swaps, they're called now).
Concise analysis
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