Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the Americans are talking up apparent signals from Tehran that will allow them to declare victory and go home. Markets are taking all this at face-value.
But first today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight where prices dipped from the prior week with WMP down -1.5%, SMP down -1.9%, and butter down -6.8%. Results in NZD limited these USD drops.
In the US, the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment rose marginally in March from its recent lows. That was despite surging inflation expectations, now well over 5%, and a continuing decline in consumers' future expectations.
Meanwhile, US job openings in February retreated and by a bit more than expected. Quits fell too as job security fears rose. Hiring decreased.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell in March but from a near four-year high in February but the dip wasn't anticipated. Still, it is the third consecutive month of growth in Chicago's economic activity, rare since 2022, though the pace of expansion slowed significantly. New orders and output continued to grow, but at a slower pace, while jobs decreased.
However the Dallas Fed services PMI took quite a tumble to its steepest contraction in almost a year, and a big retreat from February for both their activity and outlook measures. Costs there are rising much faster than prices.
The US is getting no relief from petrol and diesel prices, as they hit another high milestone. The gap between WTI and Brent is unusually narrow at present.
In Canada, and perhaps unexpectedly. they reported a small expansion in economic activity in January from December (+0.1%) and a slightly faster expansion in February from January (-0.2%). In the face of the threats and bullying from their obnoxious southern neighbour, this is resilience that few expected.
In China, major property developer Vanke posted an enormous loss for 2025, and said it is facing a wall of funding maturities. Vanke has survived because of Shenzhen government ownership support, although that is being dialed back too.
Meanwhile, China reported better than expected industrial expansions, in their case for their official March factory PMI. And their services PMI also recorded improvement into expansion, again unexpected. Typically these official surveys have been more pessimistic than the unofficial ones from S&P Global, which won't be released for March until later today. They too are expected to record expansion.
Japanese data for industrial production and retail sales, both for February, sagged and by a bit more than anticipated.
In Korea, they reported industrial production data that was surprisingly weak in February.
Global air passenger travel rose a strong +6.1% in February from the same month in 2025, bolstered by the timing of Chinese New Year. In fact, domestic travel within China in February was up +12.5%. Overall international passenger travel was up +5.9% with the Asia/Pacific region rising +8.6%. Likely much of this expansion will be upended now with the March disruptions and sentiment retreats.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, down -3 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is marginally flatter at +50 bps (-1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +25 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now flatter at +59 bps (-4 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.35%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.95%, down -7 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.76% and down -5 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street started its Tuesday with the S&P500 up +2.5% on the idea that Trump will actually abandon his Iran adventure despite his bluster. Overnight European markets all rose +0.5%. Yesterday Tokyo closed its Tuesday session down -1.6%. Hong Kong was up +0.2% but Shanghai fell -0.8%. Singapore dipped -0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session up +0.2%. And the NZX50 ended up +1.3%.
The price of gold will start today up +US$94 from yesterday, now at US$4641/oz. Silver is up +US$4 to US$74.50/oz.
American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 at just on US$104.50/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz seem to be slowly returning, but on Iran's terms.
The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down another -20 bps at 83.2 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just over 61.2.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,646 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 1.8%.
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54 Comments
Is there any way to buy put options in NZ?
Yeah, it's called "don't over extend yourself in something you can't get out of quickly"
You got a connect to Trump?
Over night Trump told countries to go get their own oil. On social media as he always does.
Unbelievable. What can a world do to stop a power like the US with a moron as it's head, from flailing around and screwing everyone else in the process? The midterms may change the political landscape in the US, but there can be little or no certainty that they will stop Trump or even slow him down. Their courts and policing agencies are all becoming increasingly partisan. A nation of laws implies everyone is equal under those laws, but in the US that is increasingly not the case.
And as usual, we will suffer what we must.
I thought he had a reasonable point to be honest.
Really? He started an illegal war for his own ego. For other nations to step in and help the US secure the area would only buffer his ego. We would be better off going to the Iranian authorities directly, letting them know we do not support or sanction what the US is doing and negotiate for them to allow tankers through the strait for our oil. We could form a block of nations to achieve that. It is clear that the Chinese and Pakistanis are doing this, perhaps the Indians too. That would send a message to the US too.
I don’t think we know for sure why he started the war, there are several possible reasons, one possibility was to save the world (particularly Israel) from nuclear threat.
But if countries like us are stupid enough to be dependent on an Iranian straight for energy it’s kinda our problem isn’t it? It seems like we no longer consider the US an ally so why would they help us?
“He started an illegal war for his own ego.”
Would you mind unpacking that claim for us?
Was on a bit of a losing streak a month ago, fella was looking for a win - or distraction from the losses rather
Trump has become the definition of a losing streak since taking office.
But to say he started this war due to his ego is simply not reality. Did his ego bully Isreal into joining this conflict?
Trump is the puppet, not the master. He has been installed to cause disruption and he is executing the plan.
Murray is distracted. He’s focused on the visible actor while the real storyline (long-term global shifts and institutional agendas) unfold behind the scenes. Even some of Trump’s losing streak may not be a failure of leadership, but rather the intended output of the people who installed him.
No single ego can hijack a system this vast. The US is governed by the invisible hand of freemasonry and permanent institutional power structures that remain constant regardless of who is in the oval office. The president is merely a construct.
So you're arguing his ego has no play in it? I suggest you're out of touch. I agree that the historical precendents suggest that what is happening now was likely. But now? Yes he's being played, but he believes he's the most powerful person in the world and is acting as such with childish abandon. Was he played by Israel? Most likely they played to his ego to get him to do this, possibly even helped him try to justify it.
The 'invisible hand of freemasonry'? Really can you support that with the evidence that you asked me for when you said 'unpack that'?
I'm not that distracted, but when you have the CiC of the world's most powerful military flailing round like a child in a room full of new toys, it's a little difficult to no be aware of the effects.
If you truly believe in your 'Free Masonry' conspiracy, then how do you see this being fixed or is their goal the end of this age of man?
PS did the free masons drive the war in Ukraine too?
Interestingly, one creed did.
Nuland/Kagan/Kagan.
Do some research. Note who, where, and the timing. Also Biden Jr - what skills did he have, again?
Freemasonry I don't know about, but inside cabal with strong Israeli links - that is too obvious to dispute.
You asserted "Trump started this war because of his ego". That was your comment.
I'm saying it’s far more complicated than a single man’s ego. You completely discounted official justifications and Israeli influence. Now you’re admitting he’s being played while also calling him commander in chief. You can't have it both ways. If he’s being played then he isn't in charge, he’s a front man.
There is a plethora of masonic symbolism in plain sight. It just depends if you are awake to pick up on them or not.
Look at the Great Seal of the United States on the back of a one dollar bill. Novus Ordo Seclorum ('New Order of the Ages'). Fourteen U.S. Presidents and numerous Founding Fathers were high ranking Masons who openly wrote about America’s 'Secret Destiny' (as Manly P. Hall detailed) to lead a global transformation. Half of the Mt Rushmore faces are freemasons (Washington, Roosevelt), and even the sculptor was a high-ranking mason. Statues of other masons include Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln.
The point is this machine has been running for centuries. The current war isn't a personal project.
I’m not being critical, as it remains a significant blind spot for many. The history of Freemasonry is intentionally opaque, it is designed to be understood only by those looking for patterns.
Anyway you don't fix a production by yelling at the actor. You fix it by stopping the audience from falling for the illusion.
You're being disingenuous now, and somewhat extremist. It's not black and white. Rather many shades of grey. His ego is involved and driving him. Listen to what he is saying and how he is saying it. It doesn't mean he isn't or can't be played by others manipulating him to do as they want. he's not really that smart to see through others playing him, even though he may pick up on some of it.
As for the free masons; if what you say is true then they picked the wrong patsy. Trump is utterly destroying the US's credibility everywhere. They may have led a global transformation with a different approach, taking out the bad players like Putin and building a world that is more stable and peaceful, (assuming that is what they want). But Trump....? What a joke. You need to wake up if that is what you believe.
If you want to understand why they picked someone who is destroying US credibility, look at the Masonic motto 'Ordo Ab Chao' - Order out of Chaos. You don't build a 'New Order of the Ages' while the old one is still standing and respected. You have to bring the old house down first.
George HW Bush was also a secret society member of the Skull and Bones who ushered in the New World Order. Interesting how JD Vance repeated the exact phase “New World Order” four times just this week regarding trade, globalisation, and alliance structures.
Albert Pike was considered the Plato of freemasonry. Back in 1871 he prophesied three world wars, with the third world war being a “Great Conflict” manufactured between political zionists and the leaders of the Islamic World.
Many US presidents and founding fathers, the British royal family, the Rothschilds, all freemasons. Just a fun little hobby for them?
I doubt the "New world order" Vance(Thiel) is mouthing about has much in common with any Bush vision of a "new world order", which was probably ecstasy at the prospect of expanding capitalism into old Warsaw pact territory.
It’s actually a clear pattern in how US administrations use the term New World Order to frame massive shifts in global power, especially at the onset of major conflicts.
Bush began using the phrase one month after Iraq invaded Kuwait. He was using the phrase to build a justification for the upcoming war, framing it not as a simple oil conflict, but as a historic opportunity to establish a global system.
Vance mentioned it exactly one month after the start of Operation Epic Fury. We don't yet know what upcoming transition Vance is signalling. Perhaps a technocratic structure on the ruins of Trump’s failed campaign?
What does AI have to say?
Post-Cold War (1990–1991): The most significant entrance into common discourse came on September 11, 1990, when George H.W. Bush delivered his "Toward a New World Order" speech to Congress. The phrase was used to describe a new era of great power cooperation, the end of the Cold War, and the UN's role in the Gulf War.
There was no reference to the Cold War.
It referenced the Gulf War (Iraq invaded Kuwait).
Bush first used the phrase 'New World Order' on August 2, 1990. The annoucement came 40 days after the start of the conflict.
"The annoucement came 40 days after the start of the conflict."
And 4 months before desert storm. If you believe removing Hussain's army from Kuwait constituted creating a "new world order", I'm underwhelmed.
I’m merely offering another perspective, I’m not trying to impress you.
You seem confident that Saddam’s removal was the definitive goal. But they could of taken him out during Operation Desert Storm? Why wait 12 years?
Perhaps the “goal” is the again another illusion.
One could speculate it was an excuse to station permanent U.S. forces in the Holy Land of the Middle East for the first time. Perhaps it was a chess move to get regional positioning required for the conflict we’re seeing today (not that it appears to be helping them!).
Secret societies do enjoy their symbolism. Another connection is the specific date of the 1991 ceasefire - February 28th was the exact same day in 2026 that Operation Epic Fury launched. Probably just another coincidence...
Recall that President Bush senior followed universal advice that removing Saddam Hussein could not fail to destabilise the entire region.Believe he offered that same advice to President Bush junior who didn’t take it. The senior had some justification for his effort which is confirmed by the participation of other gulf states however junior’s justification was soon to be exposed to be spurious. And yes the region was destabilised which if anything, benefitted none greater then Iran.
Fair points Foxy, my tin foil hat is starting to fall apart..
Destabilising the middle east to strengthen a regional antagonist like Iran may not be a failure?
It could be a necessity. Can’t justify a New World Order or global security squad if the world is peaceful and stable
My recollection is the Arab allies in Desert Storm didn't want Hussein removed, just put back in his cage. My understanding was that Iraq was viewed as a counter to Iran's Islamic nutters. So yes agree.
"We would be better off going to the Iranian authorities directly, letting them know we do not support or sanction what the US is doing and negotiate for them to allow tankers through the strait for our oil"
I don't intend on starting a war of words and I get how people are displeased with Donald Trump etc.
But seriously, you're ready to bend a knee to a terrorist organisation like the Islamic Regime in order to get 'your oil'? Bow down to them because your life might get a little bit tough by paying an extra few dollars a week for fuel and other 'things'?
"Please Mr Terrorist Organisation, can we have our oil again...pretty please.....we don't like the USA anyway....please please please!!"
We shouldn't bow down to those cowards one little bit - they brutalize and kill their own citizens if they dare to think they have the right to peaceful protests and/or the right to true democracy. They fund other regional terrorist organisations and you want to bend a knee to these people and grovel to them for some oil. Get some balls man!!
I suggest you read a bit of Persian history, circa 1953.
Agreed.
Ask why they are what they are?
And the reason is us. Uncomfortable though that truth may be, and obviously it is.
Can't we just go back to the 80s where the standard middle class white belief was that everyone else just made bad choices
Actually no. I suggest who ever is in charge of Iran right now would welcome and support approaches from countries who do not support the US with what it is doing. The question is what would the price be? The US has let ships to China, Pakistan and India through, why wouldn't they let ones to Singapore arranged with Iranian assent?
You’re just trading one bunch of murderous c&$nts for an another bunch of murderous c&$nts.
The unfortunate reality. Trade with who you must for the necessaries.
Why not approach Venezuela for oil? Why can't they ship their oil to the refineries in Singapore and Korea? It's across the pacific, so a little further, but perhaps less politics, now?
Trita Parsi is in full agreement with you, PDK.
At ~22:00, he unpacks how factions of Iranian society, and the diaspora now spread across the globe, favoured sanctions which destroyed the livelihoods of so many Iranians, but also made them so desperate, that they actually thought that perhaps a war could liberate their country.
Now we see the tragic and rapidly escalating result of this illegal attack that they helped sell to the American government and the West in general.
Now the war is on a path of uncontrolled escalation and could very easily go nuclear. Israel makes no secret of the fact that the Sampson Option is on the table if they are in danger of being defeated in this war and in achieving their Greater Israel project.
...quoted...
"If we didn't have the Trump admin pull out of the JCPOA, for instance, and those sanctions had not been reimposed, in fact they had been lifted, then for 10 years Iran's economy would have grown.
In fact, it grew 67% each year for the 2 years that the sanctions were lifted - we could have seen Iran by now, one of the strongest middle classes in the ME.
And that middle class would be putting pressure on the Iranian govt for greater freedom, democracy, and openness, but it would be doing so from the position of strength. Instead, they are doing it from a position of utter despair, and they were completely clamped down on as well.
Many of these individuals have been advocating for these sanctions for years, and said that they did not favour war, even though many of us said that the sanctions path would eventually lead to a war, and that it would weaken the Iranian middle class.
In fact, the Iranian middle class shrank between 2018/19, when Trump imposed maximum pressure sanctions - one third of them went into poverty as a result of these sanctions. How do you create democracy from that? You cannot.
But these individuals who have been advocating for the sanctions, and saying they were not favouring war, but then later on, as soon as war became more accessible to advocate for, they were out there in huge numbers and huge voices on all of these networks, parading around, hoping that their country and their countrymen and women would be bombed.
And now we see the result of this.
The idea that a country that was actively involved in genocide would actually come and save the Iranian people is criminally naive."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Sd6bDR9WAY
The trouble is that this type of war achieves very little positive while creating opportunities for the bad players to gain control. Trump certainly hasn't learnt from US's history in foreign wars. No plan, just ego.
History teaches generally that tyrants over thrown by force are generally replaced by other tyrannies.
He is a ball of dementia-ridden, incoherent rage at the moment. Any reasonable points are purely coincidental and will be directly contradicted in the next outburst.
The French language is rather good at summing things up in English. On this occasion, in these circumstances, Trump is now impuissant. Gone in, can go no further and can’t get out. Or in plain English, up shit creek.
He was put there because the US - indeed the whole of the First World - were told a lie. That lie was that economic growth was perpetual, and the tag-on was that if you wait long enough your boat will be lifted.
For a while the bottom-end bought the story. For a while, so too did the 3rd world, at least as reported. But the reality is that wealth soaks upward and creates ever-greater stratification. Ally that to resource-raiding (both legit an illegit) causing displacement, and you get frustration. Maga is one form of that frustration; the various ME militias are another.
It was inevitable that (an apparently) serial liar was put in charge of defending the serial lie - and inevitable that such a defender would make little sense. Goes with the rise and rise of fundy religious types in first-world politics, our own included. The need to believe is becoming a prerequisite
He’s good at getting his own way, so he’s smart in a way.
I've met some toddlers who are good at getting their own way too, through sheer exhaustion of those around them. I think Trump uses similar strategies.
Only trouble is the toddlers don't have to worry about maintaining alliances and whether the USD remains the reserve currency, or what happens to its enormous debt pile if that status is lost. Maybe his position calls for a more subtle approach.
He's good at being insufferable.
Anyone without enough leverage will eventually have to capitulate.
But ultimately that's not a winning approach. Trump has survived for decades but it's been rare he's ever consistently made lots of money. Just a string of deals thatve either gone bankrupt, or he's managed to weasel some sort of windfall out of them.
I remember in his first term the story was if he'd just invested his inheritance in the S&P he'd have been much richer than following his own path - he is not a great businessman.
That trajectory has likely changed in his second term as the grifting has turned up to 11.
In his first term Trump was tempered by the "establishment". Remember the revolving door of officials surrounding him? The subsequent 4 years were spent primary MAGAing every Republican not kissing Trumps ring. So the second time around we have people without any moral standing and willing to enrich themselves from the crumbs falling off the chicken bucket. Bondi, Hegseth, Patel, Gabbard, Noem(although her power kinda went to her head, mainly lips).
The swamp is more of a trough.
Reasonable point?
They were getting the oil until Netanyahu outwitted him (not difficult) into starting a war. Without asking them.
This is the latest take on what WE should be doing. From a real engineer:
https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-tra…
Can I ask that everyone here - particularly the $$$$$-fixated - reads the above link carefully? It is perhaps the most important paper to come out re NZ, ever.
He does put some points you and I have agreed on and argued for rather well.
I do agree we need to reset, but use the available energy to build the future base of a new economy that is less dependent on fossil fuels.
I don't think it'll happen. Our politicians are too wed to the conventional narrative that has dominated since at least the 40s, corrupted and entrenched by the Free market BS.
We can only educate the public and pray they listen and demand change of the politicians, and vote accordingly
I don't think it'll happen. Our politicians are too wed to the conventional narrative that has dominated since at least the 40s, corrupted and entrenched by the Free market BS.
I don't think it'll happen either.
But not necessarily due to entrenchment. My gut is leaning more towards the political status quos altering so quickly just holding them together will be a big ask.
It'll be more like falling from a tree and hitting every branch on the way down.
That last line made me laugh!
The ability to challenge the popular narrative and not be squashed into irrelevance is clearly difficult. I'd suggest the first step is to get agreement that money doesn't work today like the politicians are telling us. Educate the lot and then change the way we are doing the rest should help. Be a big piece of work though.
Tell me about it
:)
PDK, your exhortation to read the link paper has given me a very satisfying couple of hours. Thank you. Even though I squandered energy on printing the 28 pages, mea culpa.
Chuckle.
Thanks for bothering - puts you ahead of the MSM...
Trump also wants the Gulf States to pay for the war.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/30/us-says-trump-interested-in-as…
As long as the rest of the World bend the knee to him he will keep making decisions like the little spoiled man child he is.
It increasingly won't.
Almost every leader is smarter than Trump, indeed almost every leadership cluster is smarter than the US cluster--k. They will, like Carney, like Macron, reach out to each other and consolidate. Which will hasten the demise of the pariah-state that the US has become. Sidelined - made to from up to its debt while not having the thuggery lever - it is a banana republic. At its peak, 5% of the world consumed 25% of the world's resources, but at the end of the day the effort needed to repress, outweighed the effort gained (a simple EROEI equation).
World Leaders DIRE WARNING: 'Can't Sleep' Over Iran Crisis
The problem for the rest, is that we are all feeding from an emptying silo. As my linked paper points out...
"Wall Street started its Tuesday with the S&P500 up +2.5% on the idea that Trump will actually abandon his Iran adventure despite his bluster."
I wonder how our own MAGA lite government will react to realising MAGA central doesn't give a .... about them, even if Lux has Trump's direct line?
"US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed."
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891724
I guess this means the planned shiny new LNG terminal will disappear in a puff of methane? So what's plan B? Other than growing energy demand?
So long as the S&P is making cash for the algorithm, all good.
S&P Selloff could come from any event, any day currently. Anything's possible.
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