Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the US President has made ever more threats against Iran, now saying the US will blockade the Straits of Hormuz against friend and foe. The main losers will be the Gulf States that supported him. Iran probably foresees another TACO playing out. It is all very juvenile. But it does mean disruption will continue. And that inflation will stay higher for longer.
But first, here in New Zealand in the week ahead, we will get updated data about migration, retail (electronic cards) and CPI data about food and other selected items. We will also get the PSI (today), and the March REINZ data later in the week.
In Australia, the week will be about business confidence (NAB survey) and consumer confidence (Westpac survey) as well as the March labour market results, with their economy expected to have added around 20,000 jobs in March, while the jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.
The developments in the Middle East will remain the driver of global financial market movements, with current agreements proving fragile and energy exports from the region not yet restarted. The impacts on producer prices in the US are expected to show up in their PPI data.
In China, a heavy data calendar will provide investors with fresh insight into their economy’s performance. GDP growth for Q1 is expected to accelerate to 5.0% from 4.5% in Q4 2025. The country’s trade surplus is also projected to widen slightly to US$112 bln in March, up from US$102 bln a year earlier. Meanwhile, industrial production and retail sales are likely to have slowed in March. New yuan loans are expected to rise to ¥3.4 tln.
In Japan, it will be about machinery orders. In India, about a rising inflation rate.
On Friday in the US, their CPI inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March, about the expected rise. This was all due to fuel prices, especially petrol and diesel. Core inflation, which excludes this and food also moved up but more modestly, to a 2.7% rate. The Fed will be watching to see if this is transitory, or building in.
Still, US oil rig counts are not rising in response to these higher prices. Actually, they fell slightly. With US crude prices higher than Middle East prices, those producers have decided the best strategy is 'do nothing' and milk the benefits.
So it will be no surprise to know that the University of Michigan sentiment index plummeted in their latest survey to an historic low in early April, far below both market expectations and last year’s low level. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, emphasising the broad-based drop. (But it is also worth noting that this survey was taken before the 'ceasefire' claims.)
Also, there was no growth in US factory orders in February from January, also well before the Iran conflict. From a year ago they were up +4.0%, most of that coming earlier in the year.
Take a look at this: it is the share price history for FirstCash, an American pawn shop operator. Set the chart to 'MAX'. They have more than 3,000 pawn stores in 29 US states, and business is booming.
In Canada, their March labour market report showed little-change, with overall employment rising a minor +14,000 holding at just over 21 mln. There were also few changes in either full-time or part-time employment, and the jobless rate stayed unchanged at 6.7%
In Korea, their central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. They have an inflation rate of 2.2% but expect this to rise in the current environment.
China said its CPI inflation rate was +1.0% in March from a year ago, a smaller rise than expected and lower than the February +1.3% rate (which was a three year high). Food prices only rose +0.3% year-on-year, restrained by pork and fresh vegetables. Beef prices were up +7.8% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.8%. Dairy product prices fell -0.7% on the same basis.
China also released its producer price data today which shows them suddenly out of deflation, with PPI up +0.5% from a year ago in March, the first time since September 2022, and prior to the pandemic distortion, the first time since early 2019.
There was a sharp drop in vehicle sales in China in March (down -8.8%) after Beijing cut subsidies. That has turned their automakers to chasing export orders, and their appetite is desperate, and a threat to most of the world's other carmakers.
In Taiwan, their export machine delivered another spectacular result in March, after the easing in February. Their exports were up to yet another record high of US$80 bln, a gain of +62% from the same month a year ago. Imports were up +59% on that same basis.
German inflation was confirmed at 2.7% in March, the same as their preliminary estimate, and back up to levels last seen in January 2024.
In Hungary, early results seem to favour the Tisza opposition and against Victor Orban's Fidesz. But Orban controls much of the election apparatus so it will need to be an overwhelming result to defeat him. Turnout was reported to be high. With about a third of the votes counted so far, it seems to be 2:1 against Orban. Update: Orban has conceded after a landslide defeat. The Trump/Vance endorsement likely killed off any of his chances.
In Australia, the recent Albanese trip to Singapore to source fuel, especially diesel, caps an effective open-chequebook campaign to acquire what they need, with a virtual armada of ships to arrive in Australia over the next few weeks. The list here is interesting. We count 56 ships in that wave, some even from the US.
It is also probably worth noting that China said it will ban exports of sulphuric acid, a move that will handicap copper mining, among other industries including the fertiliser industries. The copper price rose. And of course the sulphur price was already at a record high before that move. The urea price rose, back to the pandemic extremes. To be clear, there is no formal Chinese announcement of this latest curb, only producers there telling clients that they have had instructions from Beijing to block suppling them from May.
And the IMF said the war on Iran will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. Not really 'news' but their analysis is compelling, and 2026 could be a write-off for any 'recovery'.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.32%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday but down -3 bps from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is marginally steeper at +52 bps (+1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +24 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is also stable at +67 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 1.82%, unchanged from last week. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.44%, little-changed for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.97%, down -3 bps from Saturday, down -4 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate unchanged at 4.73% but down -3 bps for the week.
The price of gold will start today down -US$21 at US$4747/oz, but up +US$71 for the week. Silver is down -US$1 at US$75.50/oz.
American oil prices are holding at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just on US$95/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$110.50 and US$109/bbl respectively.
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc. But that is a +150 bps appreciation (+2.8%) from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps to 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -10 bps from Saturday at just on 61.9, or up +110 bps (+2.0%) for the week
The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,192 and down -2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.
[There will be no video version today.]
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
79 Comments
Juvenile in a way, but inevitable too.
I was thinking about thinking over the weekend - how confirmation bias stops folk peeling back all the layers, all that. Critical thinking, Systems thinking, lateral thinking and logic are all useful skills.
Applied to the Hormuz onion, too many people are chasing the remnant half of a one-off global stock of high-quality energy. They are doing so with a flawed appreciation of time - if we burn it all we wouldn't survive the climate. But in the frenzy to get it, nations are behaving like individuals queued at a petrol station, using more while they're idling/warring respectively. Another layer is the politics; the Brits were the first into Persia after oil, the locals kicked them out, the CIA organised a coup (their trademark - think Maidan) the locals kicked them out, the US needs to replace fracking near-term...
Atop that, is the yin/yang problem; modernity was built using and made of, fossil energy. Non-fossil sources and systems exist and are being scaled, but they are being added, they aren't displacing FF. And we'd have to replace the whole collection, within the last doubling-time, using a flawed accounting system (fiat money). And they simply don't do as much. Simply put, the continuance of economic growth FROM THIS LEVEL is impossible ex fossil energy. Which is leaving us. Which means we will end up on 'renewables'. Which means a (very) different societal construct.
Those attempting growth, cannot do it on 'renewables', which is why a vote for growth produces a great leap backwards - as here and as around the First World. So we were always going to see competition over 'what's left'. That brings in hegemonies, and we are witnessing the do-or-die inevitability from the biggest of them all - as I've often said, Trump is a symptom, not a cause.
Regardless of who 'wins' in terms of oil, petro-currency and hegemony, we are about to see supply-reduction, price increases and more stress on our country. My pick is that this is the inflection - the big one - if not it's Act One.
Yes, you will recall that I suggested militarily blocking Iranian favoured ships made sense.
The thing is Trump, and therefore America, especially the military, are making the same error they made in Viet Nam. They think their 'enemy' thinks, rationalises and acts the same way they do. Not the way it works. Sun Tzu foretells the outcome here;“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” Trump, and perhaps the sycophants he's installed in the military command, are in significant denial about themselves, let alone the Iranians. This is going to get very ugly.
Echoes of Kissinger viz, “The guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The conventional army loses if it does not win.” A priority was stated as removing Iran’s nuclear weapon ability and that depended on a regime change. Instead there has been a change to the regime in the form of much greater power being assumed by the Republican Guard. As it stands Iran can rebuild and Iran can resume where it left off regardless of whatever they may or not end up signing.
Echoes without saying?
Sun Tzu is so last epoch. We now live in the age of Don Tzu.
So the USA now want to help the Iranians to completely stopper the strait.
Better than a Monty Python script. That is, if wasn't killing people.
(but perhaps by lunchtime they will have changed their minds.)
A counterpoint to the USA losing the war in Iran:
The US has:
- Captured oil in Venezuela
- Significantly reduced oil supply from the Middle East
- Helped Ukraine destroy many refineries in Russia
- Probably blown up the Nord stream gas pipeline to Europe.
Also note that the US has NOT increased its oil production, thus keeping oil prices high (and screwing the whole world)
This all benefits the USA immensely, it forces many other countries to buy oil from the US and PAY FOR IT IN USD. It's a great (for the US) way to defend the USD and make tons of money.
Needs another layer peeled
What will that 'tons of money' be worth, as we go through the last of the fossil stocks?
The same question can be asked of Norway - they had energy, which is real 'money in the bank' (you can do stuff with energy). They turned some of it into alt energy, true, but much went into the EU stockmarket. Which would be worth, ex FF?
This is where 'the market' is blind.
Counter to that think of all the lost petrodollars from 20% loss of transactions in USD that now no longer flow into the USA treasuries/stock exchange. What about the fertiliser that USA imports huge amounts of? And the helium required to make the chips that the USA imports? And the.....
I dont imagine the US is "Helping" Ukraine destroy Russian oil logistics. In fact there are instances where the US has explicitly told Ukraine not to do this. Of course now Ukraine doesn't rely on the US for armaments, it's not forced to pull punches at the behest of politicians requiring the votes of Dodge Ram drivers.
In actual fact the Trump administration wants to support it's friend in the Kremlin and has removed price sanctions on Russian oil.
Not sure that was because of friendship - more likely because of the price at the pump vs the coming mid-terms
It's certainly friendship now. Previously the Biden admin didn't want Ukraine affecting global oil supply and banned Ukraine using US sourced weapons on Russian territory under threat of reduced support. The current Admin are all over Putin like a rash.
Rasputitsa, the great mud season, is about to dry up in Ukraine. Next item of note is what sort of spring offensive the Red Army is able to put into action. Read somewhere, and can’t find it again, that Russian security & intelligence personnel have tabled papers indicating that China may be formulating designs on previous USSR territory that once upon a time used to be Chinese territory. For instance Vladivostok that came into Russian hands in 1860 by way of the “unequal treaty.” Russia doesn’t really need to be looking over its shoulder right now.
What's under the ground?
Territory is the stuff under it, not the acreage. At least, not yet - it will be when we're down to real-time solar.
But there won't be a China, a Russia or anything that big by then - not enough surplus energy.
Well in the context of the present world stage one thing that might cause Russia to let up on Ukraine, and any other East Europe ambitions if there are any, would be a large body kicking in their back door. International relations can be a bit like the old Market Hotel I used to drink in that had an old beech floor, which was up and down all over the place and the publican had given up nailing it down, saying as soon as I nail one down, another pops up behind me. Just musing.
I call BS.
China wouldn't do that to the biggest source of energy adjacent to them - it is easier to trade.
And that's not been their modus operandi for how long?
But like Iran, they will be well aware that at some point they have to defend - and even now I'd put my money on China vs the US. One's stockpile has been being depleted for years - and one's hasn't.
Yes I do. I also asked the question why isn't the US stopping ships crossing the straight bound for China ? How much leverage does China have ? It seems finally not enough anymore, but it means this conflict is heading towards ever greater escalation.
The Hormuz disruption is a short‑run logistics shock, not evidence that this is going to turn into the "big one" . At this point in history It's more likely energy supplies will be made more resilient because of this shock.
That makes sense. I hope you're right.
And the Permian isn't?
Hope is not a definitive statement. Zac is correct it is a supply chain disruption. And if that is all it amounts to getting over it and settling should be straight forward once resolutions are identified and put in place. But Yvil is also correct the potential for much more escalation is huge. What will China do, or where will they go if their supply of oil through the strait is cut off?
I suggest it is a fight over what's left, not a 'supply chain disruption' - although if the US dominates it we might hang on its coattails a little longer.
https://fastercapital.com/content/Oil-Depletion--Oil-Depletion--Navigat…
Geopolitical Tensions: Access to remaining oil reserves may become a source of conflict, as nations vie for control over these resources. The Middle East, a region with significant oil reserves, has historically seen tensions influenced by the control and distribution of oil.
More resiliant? Yep, should squeeze a lot of waste out of western economies and starve a lot of people unable to access fuel and fertilisers.
how confirmation bias stops folk peeling back all the layers
You have a fairly one eyed belief yourself
PDK keeps returning to a single, all‑encompassing narrative, on every thread it seems, that, when scrutinized, isn’t actually supported by data or even logic. If his thesis was submitted to a reputable scientific journal it would be rejected. That's okay and interesting, we need outliers, but constant repetition wont make it so. It reminds me of end times religious nonsense where every major geo-political event is presented as evidence of biblical prophecy.
BS
Much of what I read, is in those journals.
There is definitely depletion of resources worldwide, in that sense PDK is correct. Where his logic fails is that it does not allow for discoveries of other resources, yet unknown resources and ever our increasing efficiencies to extract and use existing and yet undiscovered resources.
"... and ever our increasing efficiencies to extract and use existing ..."
PDKs point is (always) that that statement is demonstrably incorrect....he frames it as we used the best and easiest first, and the fact that ERoEI of energy has been steadily declining over time validates that position. We are in fact becoming less efficient at producing (useable) energy.
Every day we burn through 100 million barrels, and twice that in BOE.
From a finite source - doesn't matter how big it was or wasn't, it's a temporary arrangement.
And I cannot think of an energy resource which displaces FF.
And we'd have had to be near finished the buildout, already. We are witnessing the last show-down as to who gets access to 'what's left. The moves and plays are interesting - fascinating even - but the physics is inexorable, and the last doubling-time is always the last half. Of anything, but energy just happens to be crucial.
Compared to 20 years ago, U.S. tight‑oil wells now deliver roughly 2 to 4 times more production, depending on the basin. The flaw in PDK’s point is treating oil as a single, uniform category. Yes, conventional wells decline as they deplete, but tight‑oil productivity has risen sharply because of evolving technology.
Production of US tight oil has plateaued and will decline from here on in...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-202…
Tight oil is the last play in the oil book.
It depletes faster, for obvious engineering reasons - Red Queen territory.
The cranial failure is in mistaking a flow for a stock.
Tight oil isn't the "last play in the oil book", it's the newest play in the oil book. A book with an expanding portfolio.
"Tight oil is the last play in the oil book."
It is as far as we know....but Id suggest that time is the greatest constraint.
We're down to tar-sands and fracking - you don't do that if you have better options (gets muddied because fields like the aging Ghawar are still trundling on - albeit it peaked in 1981 and is down to 3mbpd - so total supply is a mix. But for front-end development options, that's what we're down to.
And fracking is the source-rock - there's no more milkshake further down or tighter in.
More discoveries await us in deepwater, tight oil, NGLs and condensate. Even conventional. The main constraints are financial and political.
Should they exist, a burnt out husk of a planet awaits your grandchildren.
"Annual conventional discovered volumes once averaged more than 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per year in the early 2010s, but these have fallen to nearly one-third of that, with analysis by Rystad Energy showing global discoveries have averaged slightly over 8 billion boe annually since 2020 despite several standout frontier finds in Namibia, Suriname, and Guyana."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Oil-Discoveries-Colla….
An 8 billion BOE discovery is 80 days global consumption.
Spend less, look less, find less.
Or maybe financially savvy not wasting money on something that's not there? After all, that's what oil companies do. Find oil, develop oil, sell oil.
We are all of that but we dont know what we dont know.....however we do know that even if we discover something we didnt know we are highly unlikely to have the time to develop/scale it (or it will be insufficient) in a period before the existing declines below the support level for the existing system, therefore the constraint of time comes to the fore, and the only way to create more time is to reduce the flow (use) of the known existing....the greater the reduction the more time to adjust/progress.
We will run out of time before we run out of oil.
Don't worry, I've just had an epiphany.
The Titanic didn't sink; the political types aboard just threw money at it
and bingo
It stayed afloat. Who was the silly f who said sinking was a physics/displacement problem?
Classic straw man via false analogy...nice!
No - it's a dead parallel for your nonsense.
Straw man: I never said physics doesn't apply, just that the current restraint is financial.
False analogy: A sinking ship is physics however oil exploration outcomes rely on economic factors.
"other resources, yet unknown resources"
Fairy dust and magic?
Jimbo - how would you know? You and ZS are the two most back-to-default-I-don't-like-the-implications commenters here.
I've been trying to get people to think, for some time:
Steady State Economics: We’ve got some (systems) thinking to do - The Dig
And in case you missed this over the weekend:
Simeon Brown's Mission Impossible | interest.co.nz
There are something like 140–175 empty crude tankers currently inbound to the United States. This is 60% more than in normal times. US refineries are in for a bonanza but this is also good test for the global system of oil supply. It's almost like the fuel version of a Berlin airlift.
Other regions are increasing exports as well although nowhere near as much as the US. This does highlight the continuing and persistent industrial might of the US. A lesson for countries to let the oil companies, the experts, manage things and keep their profits rather than meddle with production for socialist/political reasons.
This also means NZ is unlikely to run out of fuel, however we will face sharply increased prices.
Good point. And also I'm sure the order books of the American military industrial complex are full for many years to come. All the countries in the Gulf and elsewhere will be frantically purchasing the best weapons they can.
"...This also means NZ is unlikely to run out of fuel,"
Have we done a deal to get some of those US oil exports (that havnt been increased)? Nicola will be making an announcement any minute now.
I wouldn't be surprised although the system works as a market.
There are something like 140–175 empty crude tankers currently inbound to the United States. This is 60% more than in normal times. US refineries are in for a bonanza but this is also good test for the global system of oil supply. It's almost like the fuel version of a Berlin airlift.
Any financial gain for the Whitehouse occupiers in this? Probably.
Diesel is the key here. How much Diesel does the USA produce?
That it doesn't use internally
:)
The US one of the world’s largest diesel suppliers and exports are increasing sharply due to the current supply shock. The U.S. is backfilling pretty much all of the lost Middle Eastern diesel into Europe — roughly 80–100% of the shortfall.
The question is can the US produce (and export) enough diesel( and other products) to make up for the lost production elsewhere...and the answer to that question is an emphatic no....their refineries are already running at over 90% capacity and they only export around 3 million bpd
Meanwhile they face increased competition for the feedstock for their refineries and increasing political pressure at home to retain production for the domestic market.
Sorry for re-positing my comment from below, I wrote it before reading the comments, I feel it is better suited to this thread.
A counterpoint to the USA losing the war in Iran:
The US has:
- Captured oil in Venezuela
- Significantly reduced oil supply from the Middle East
- Helped Ukraine destroy many refineries in Russia
- Probably blown up the Nord stream gas pipeline to Europe.
Also note that the US has NOT increased its oil production, thus keeping oil prices high (and screwing the whole world)
This all benefits the USA immensely, it forces many other countries to buy oil from the US and PAY FOR IT IN USD. It's a great (for the US) way to defend the USD and make tons of money.
It may force others to buy oil products from the US that they otherwise would not have , but the key point is they cannot supply them.....not without years/decades of infrastructure investment....meanwhile everything falls apart.
The US has:
- Captured oil in Venezuela
Yes but, as the US oil companies have stated, the logistics (and previously, the politics) have made it uneconomical to ship oil out of Venezuela despite many US refineries being set up for their heavy crude. Trump might have fixed the political side but the logistical issues remain.
Maybe they're picking up the 172 million barrels released from the SPR? Sounds about right for that number of ships.
the US President has made ever more threats against Iran, now saying the US will blockade the Straits of Hormuz against friend and foe.
$5/litre anyone?
The mad dog Israelis have made themselves into the real problem.
If there were 1 or 2 billion people on the planet, they wouldn't be.
Layers of the onion.
:)
And if we didn't pursue economic ideology that prioritises burning geological carbon as quickly as possible?
A counterpoint to the USA losing the war in Iran:
The US has:
- Captured oil in Venezuela
- Significantly reduced oil supply from the Middle East
- Helped Ukraine destroy many refineries in Russia
- Probably blown up the Nord stream gas pipeline to Europe.
Also note that the US has NOT increased its oil production, thus keeping oil prices high (and screwing the whole world)
This all benefits the USA immensely, it forces many other countries to buy oil from the US and PAY FOR IT IN USD. It's a great (for the US) way to defend the USD and make tons of money.
A big win for those involved in oil production in the US, but one of those paying the price is the rest of the country who will pay more for fuel and other goods as the price spike flows through. It's another upwards redistribution of wealth.
Quite in keeping with Trumps actions of screwing the poor, but out of touch with his rhetoric (if you can use that word with Trump) that gained their electoral support.
So the US Navy is going to blockade now? After being unable to escort 'friendly' vessels through the strait previously?
"It's easy to blow shit up...". Trump 2026 most likely.
You've read "The Art of the Deal", now look out for "The Art of war" by Sun Tzu Trumpu. Send a self addressed envelope to1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Surely, a US blockade of the strait is on dodgy legal grounds? International waters, or possibly territorial waters of other sovereign nations, ??
Trump (et al) specialise in dodgy
The (Our) Rules Based Order is disintegrating, as the two biggest players manoeuvre to see who gets the last half (not just oil, pretty much the planet). Politeness was never very far from the surface - but there isn't room or time for that now. Trump has articulated it - we want it all - first, is all.
In game terms, the old lion can only hold or succumb; the young one can try again. Inevitably, entropy wins (:) and young beats old. So too with hegemonies - China will prevail in the longer term, the question is: when does the feed-back-loop reverse?
So dodgy is driven by existential and doing nothing is not the best move for a dying/failing hegemony - although hard to read Trump himself, as to whether he understands that. It may be that he is just Epstein-class and thinks no further than tomorrow.
The problem with your perspective is that the pressure on resources was only just starting to be apparent, and the current state of affairs was necessary, but corruption brought it out. Creating corruption in the political classes has driven people to outside choices. Someone like Trump was never supposed to be electable, let alone don the mantle of the office. The chaos that ensues from that has few if any, boundaries.
On spark of hope in a world of chaos, Orban appears to have lost in Hungary, conceding to Magyar.
"Someone like Trump was never supposed to be electable, let alone don the mantle of the office."
Thats the theory....but it is important to remember there are around 300 (R) Senate and House members that ensure the theory dosnt hold, not to mention a handfull on the other side as well.
People who count esoterically - in or around GDP - didn't predict Trump getting back in.
Folk who actually thought - realised that the dearth of resources going into the bottom-half of the US, was why MAGA. 'Again', tells us it currently isn't.
But folk who need not to know that, assume all is onwards and upwards, even as the US disintegrates. If it can't maintain at THIS EROEI, what hope on ever worse ones?
The cowardice of the US political system has shown Trump that he can get away with anything. He is the toddler with no consequences for his bad behaviour.
Cowardice?
You only get elected if you have pots of money backing you. That's the military/industrial complex, and other corporates. You do what they say, jump as high as they pay you to jump.
The question is whether Trumps moves are assisting, or hindering, those backers and by how much? It won't be that clear either - the M/I types are probably wringing their hands in glee. Not so the logistics firms.
You only get elected if you have pots of money backing you. That's the military/industrial complex, and other corporates.
Right. Trump is just a puppet.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.