Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that the Trump Administration has dropped its criminal investigation into the Fed's Powell - which means the Kevin Warsh is likely to be the new Fed boss soon - and that the US is sending negotiators to Pakistan to talk to an Iranian delegation.
Both moves were seen by markets as 'positive' and equities rose.
But markets seem to be ignoring the detail that while the US delegation is 'senior', the Iranian one isn't with the key foreign minister likely to be absent - at this time, anyway.
The Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut. Only five ships crossed in the past 24 hours, all with Iranian consent.
In the US, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 49.8 in April from an initial estimate. Despite the slight improvement, this remains the survey's lowest level ever for a survey that started in 1946. Which just emphasises the heavy toll the Iran conflict has taken on consumer confidence. It fell across all demographics, regardless of political affiliation, income, age, or education.
Expectations for business conditions deteriorated for both the short and long term, nearly matching levels seen a year ago when reciprocal tariffs were introduced. While the Iran ceasefire and a slight dip in petrol prices helped sentiment recover a fraction of its early-month losses, the conflict’s primary impact on consumers stems from the wide spreading price shocks. Inflation expectations surged, with year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.7% from 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, while long-term expectations climbed to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.
Meanwhile, US oil rigs in service fell yet again while local oil company bosses piling on the pressure to keep prices high in their domestic market. We make that the lowest level since May 2020, and prior to that, June 2016. American consumers are being taken for suckers.
(And in win for Trump, he has had the Department of Justice declare that laws requiring the retaining of Presidential records as 'unconstitutional'.)
Canadian retail sales were up +3.8% in February from a year ago, and actually up on a volume (price-adjusted) basis as well. They rose again in March but that was likely only because of higher fuel costs.
Interestingly, even though they face the same pressures from importing fuel, Japan seems to have avoided an inflation spike in March. It came in there at 1.5%, little different to their February rate (1.3%) or the expected rate (1.5%). These are still at near 4 year lows.
China said its March net inflow of foreign direct investment was a modest +US13.0 bln increase from February, almost double to the even more modest flow in March 2025. For the year to date it is running at about the same levels although that is a very low standard, back to about GFC levels.
And China is subtly restricting outflows. China’s securities regulator has taken action against a domestic company for listing on a foreign exchange (the Nasdaq) without getting their approval, the first enforcement action of this kind.
The Russian central bank cut its policy rate by -50 bps overnight to 14.5%. This was the expected action.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, down -2 bps from this time Friday but up +6 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps (+4 bp). Their 1-5 curve is at +25 bps (-2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +64 bps (-6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.75%, up +1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 2.43%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.95%, down -4 bps from Friday, down -3 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also down -3 bps at 4.72%, up +1 bp for the week.
Wall Street has ended its Friday trade with the S&P500 up +0.8% for a weekly rise of +0.7%. Overnight, European markets were down -0.8% except Frankfurt which was only down -0.1% overnight. And yesterday Tokyo closed up +1.0% to cap a +1.5% weekly rise%, Hong Kong rose +0.2% on Friday to limit the weekly fall to -0.9%, and Shanghai eased -0.3% for a +0.7% weekly gain. Singapore ended -0.4% lower. The ASX200 closed unchanged on Friday to end the week down -1.7%. The NZX50 dipped -0.1% on Friday for a weekly easing of -0.2%.
The Fear & Greed index is still in the 'greed' zone, where it was last week.
The price of gold will start today up +US$36 at US$4718/oz, but down -US$139/oz for the week. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$76.50/oz, down -US$5 for the week.
American oil prices are down -US$2.50 at just over US$94/bbl, while the international Brent price is down only -50 USc, and now at US$105/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$84.50/bbl and US$91/bbl respectively, so a big net rise.
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc. That is a minor -10 bps off from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 62.2 which is no net change from this time last week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,609 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. And it is up only +0.6% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%.
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10 Comments
Not only are the iranians not sending a delegation, but the US envoys are so close to Netanyahu that you may as well send Isreals in to negotiate for America.
Perhaps Netanyahu has sent the US administration to negotiate for them ?
Headline of 2026. Sums up many things about our brave new economic realities and behaviors.
Vegan meat mogul charged with strangling social media star ex in ritzy NYC hotel — where he was allegedly ‘hiding’ from crypto fraud suit
Some may know about Ben Pasternak, who is an Aussie entrepreneur (grandson of property developer and media owner Bob Magid), who started building apps as a teenager and later moved to New York after dropping out of high school at 15 to pursue startups with venture backing. He became one of the youngest founders to receive venture capital funding in tech and was listed among Time’s “Most Influential Teens” and Forbes 30 Under 30.
Pasternak co‑founded Simulate, a US food technology firm best known for NUGGS, a plant‑based chicken nugget product marketed as a “chicken nugget simulation.” Simulate raised several million dollars in funding and helped cement his reputation as a young founder in the alternative protein and food‑tech space, before the company was ultimately sold around 2024.
In 2025 he launched a Web3 startup initially called Clout, later rebranded to Believe, focused on social‑media‑linked tokens and then broader memecoins and startup tokens. The platform issued and promoted tokens such as $PASTERNAK$PASTERNAK, $LAUNCHCOIN$LAUNCHCOIN, and $BELIEVE, which have since become the subject of investor lawsuits alleging a coordinated scheme around those assets.
https://nypost.com/2026/04/24/us-news/vegan-meat-mogul-charged-with-str…
https://x.com/Charteddaily/status/2047864403094303141
To put the scale of the sacrifice made by New Zealanders in the world wars into perspective, around 1 in 6 boys aged 15 in 1909 were dead within a decade, and 1 in 11 in 1934 didn't live to 25. By comparison, for boys aged 15 in 2015 it was closer to 1 in 170.
That moisture deficit map is interesting. Autumn seemed pretty dry to me!
JJ
Depends where you live.
Wettest summer and autumn in my back yard.
Pretty wet right through in eastern BOP without to much flooding for us.
Characterised by low temperatures and particularly at night right now.
Do you live in a cave?
Auckland has been pretty wet so far
London/New York | The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply, but traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.
The longer the vital oil channel does not reopen, traders said, the more consumption is going to have to recalibrate lower to align with supply that’s dropped at least 10 per cent.
And for that to happen, people will have to buy less, either through prices they cannot afford or government intervention to force consumption down.
10% doesn’t sound like much does it? I’d say at least 10% of my trips aren’t particularly necessary. Probably the same with freight too. And especially flights, going on holiday is hardly a necessity and many businesses trips aren’t either these days.
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