Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news beyond the headlines, the corrosive impacts in the consequences of keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut are starting to build and spread. The rise in the cost and availability of sulphur is an icon example. Inflation increases are coming for everything, from metals to fertiilisers.
But first in the US, they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%.
We should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency.
Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors.
But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling.
And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April.
In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their unemployment rate to 6.9%
In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets.
The global FAO food price index was up in April, but driven by strong rises for vegetable oils. Prices for meat and dairy were little-changed from March. Still, meat prices were at record highs, all the same.
And we should note that the copper price has jumped to a record all-time high at US$13,750/tonne (NZ$23,000/tonne). Trump's Middle East adventure has disrupted shipments of sulphuric acid, a critical input in copper refining. In turn, China has banned sulphuric acid exports from May through to at least December. That alone is expected to remove around 3 mln tonnes from global supply. Copper is becoming a 'precious metal'. Aluminium and tine are also near record highs on supply uncertainty.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday, down -2 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +47 bps (-1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is now at +28 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +70 bps (-6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.76%, unchanged on the day and the week. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.47%, down -3 bps from a week ago. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.97%, unchanged from Friday but down -3 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +7 bps at 4.72%, unchanged for the week.
Wall Street has ended its Friday with the S&P500 up +0.8% and up a net +2.3% for the week. Overnight, European markets were lower between London's -0.4% drop and Frankfurt's -1.3%. Yesterday Tokyo fell back -0.2% to be up +3.6% for the week. Hong Kong was down -0.9% on Friday, up +1.0% for the week. Shanghai unchanged on Friday, up +2.9% over its week. And Singapore was down -0.4% in Friday trade. The ASX200 ended down -1.5% on Friday for a small weekly gain of +0.2%. And the NZX50 fell -0.7% in Friday trade but was up +1.0% for the week.
The Fear & Greed index is still in the 'greed' zone, where it was for the last three weeks.
The price of gold will start today up +US$26 at US$4723/oz, up +US$123 for the week. Silver is up +US$1at just over US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week.
American oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc today at US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week.
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.6 USc, up +60 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is unchanged from yesterday but up +30 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,041 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday, up +1.9% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%.
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3 Comments
The statistical economic data that issues from the USA, as above recorded on a national base, is though a blanket analysis, the nation is enormous and of huge diversity . Ten states in their own right have economies in terms of GDP larger or in the vicinity of for example Russia. There will be a world of difference in the state of affairs between such as Texas and Montana and the difference between a New Englander and New Mexican is profound. A disaster in Florida doesn’t register much with someone in Idaho and vice versa. Seems to becoming more than obvious that the levers of federal command in Washington DC cannot possibly control and contain the vast array of elements and activities belting around from border to border. The whole damn shooting box has become too damn big.
Aging, childless populations.
Since January 2025, the federal government has shed 345,000 civilian employees, or nearly 12% of its staff. Federal government employment is now down to 2.66 million, the lowest since 1966, accounting for just 1.7% of total nonfarm payrolls, the lowest in the history of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data going back to 1939.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/08/weirdest-u-s-labor-market-ive-ever-se…
But experts say the biggest factor in declining enrollment is the record-low U.S. fertility rate. It most recently peaked in 2007, and has fallen 24 percent since then.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/upshot/public-schools-enrollment-cri…
As I’ve argued with PDK before, the next generations biggest problem will be a lack of (working) people, not energy. NZ can probably combat that through immigration, but many other countries are screwed
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