A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; FHB buyers active, surprise vote split on OCR decision, fintech speed rolling out, Fisher Funds shakeup, swaps firm, NZX50 firm, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today so far. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

ENTRY-LEVEL BUYERS STILL ACTIVE
First home buyers are likely buying more than a third of homes being sold each month, based on the RBNZ's monitoring of lending data. This group is estimated to have paid an average of $682,000 for a home of their own in April, down from $692,000 in March

OCR UNCHANGED, JUST, AFTER VOTING DRAMA
As universally expected (by financial markets and economic analysts), the RBNZ held its official cash rate (OCR) at 2.25% at its Monetary Policy review today. But it was only Breman's casting vote that held off a +25 bps increase. And it was an internal-vs-external split on the committee. It is a split that will concentrate the minds of financial market price setters. The rest of us can expect that OCR rate hikes will be coming sooner than we expected.

NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% so far today, with a weekly rise of +3.1%. It is down -2.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.6%. Perhaps surprisingly, this market has ignored the RBNZ OCR signals and the risk of rate hikes sooner. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is now up +1.5% from yesterday. Kathmandu, Vista Group, Infratil, and Vulcan Steel lead the NZX50 higher; Spark, Serko, Sanford, and SkyCity casino weigh on the index.

RETAIL ACCESS TO TRAVEL MONEY
Now that banks have pulled back from supplying travel money, with the whole shift from currency notes to online travel cards, the second tier international services are having a moment. Travelex, who are already 'partnering' with BNZ and TSB, are now extending their reach into the PaperPlus network, in a new deal announced today.

INSTANT IS HERE
Faster payments are on the way, if you really want them. Banks currently process domestic electronic payments seven days a week, including weekends and public holidays. But standard payments between banks are still generally processed in batches at regular half-hourly or hourly intervals between around 9:00am and 11:45pm, rather than instantly. This small delay is critical if we want banks to be able to intervene if their sophisticated systems detect potential scams or fraud. But if you want to rush ahead without that protection, there are fintechs that promise faster settlement. BlinkPay says it can deliver payments in about 3 seconds, and has rolled out its service. But don't expect banks to be able to warn you if something doesn't look right. (BlinkPay is a fintech owned by BNZ.)

BIG SHAKE-UP
We have been highlighting KiwiSaver fund manager underperformance recently. Today, serial under-performer Fisher Funds has shaken up its top team in an effort to find better returns. Fisher Funds is owned by the Toi Foundation (who also own TSB Bank), and US-based private equity firm TA Associates. Fisher Funds CEO remains Simon Power.

THE FUEL EXCISE CUT SAVES THE DAY
In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%).

HARD SLAP
And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln.

CHINESE FACTORY PROFITS UP 21% IN APRIL FROM A YEAR AGO
China's April industrial profits are rising faster, coming in at their best level for the month since 2022, and before that since 2017. Of course, this data includes the Middle East crisis period, so it is impressive that results were not hurt in the month.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small rise, following the OCR outcomes. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.63% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 4.86%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also unchanged at 2.71% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -3 bps at 4.61%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.47%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market has picked up in the past hour so is now up +0.8% from yesterday. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.3% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.7% and Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.8%. Wall Street returned from its long holiday weekend with a +0.6% rise

OIL PRICES HOLD/EASE
American oil prices are up +50 USc with the WTI benchmark still just over US$92/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just over US$98/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few more trades today on the secondary market, and the price has basically held, now at $52.80/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down at US$4505/oz, down another -US$30 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$77oz and unchanged/

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday open against the USD, now just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and up +20 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN SOFTER AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$75,725 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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