Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news Ireland's embrace of multinational tech giants is unravelling fast and in a spectacular manner.
But first up today, the anticipated US non-farm payrolls report delivered a strong result, with a +172,000 jobs gain at the headline level and more than double the expected +82,000 gain. From a year ago, that is a rise of +503,000. But this data is the seasonally adjusted results from payroll employment. Looking more broadly, US civilian employment rose +149,000 in May from April but is -504,000 lower than year-ago levels. It is clearly very tough indeed for the unincorporated self employed.
Of the headline jobs gain, +70,000 were in their hospitality sector (expecting a soccer World Cup boost?), local government added +55,000 jobs, healthcare +35,000, social assistance +17,000. There we no changes or declines in the manufacturing, IT or administration sectors, and little in the construction sector. Basically lower paid jobs rose, higher paid ones shrank. The US no longer releases details of full-time, part-time job changes or detail.
Total American consumer debt rose by +US$21 in May, following a downwardly revised +US$22 bln gain in April. This was slightly more than expected. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, rose +US$14 bln while nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, rose +US$8 bln in the month. This data shows sustained consumer demand for debt despite elevated borrowing costs and the rising interest-rate environment.
At the same time, the huge tech IPOs involving the AI behemoths and SpaceX are sucking up all the financial market attention.
And that, along with the gritty labour market questions, has driven a pullback in attitudes, to a more risk-off, defensive posture to end the week. More investors see the US Fed pushing ahead with rate hikes earlier than anticipated to try and not be blindsided from rising inflation getting embedded. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and oil prices have ended the week higher than where they started.
In turn that risk-off has driven US benchmark interest rates up, equity markets lower, and the US currency very much higher,
Canada also released its May jobs data overnight and that was better than expected too. They added +88,000 jobs when a gain of only +10,000 was anticipated. Better, their full-time jobs grew +154,000 in the month, as part-time jobs shrank. Their jobless rates fell notably to 6.6%, from 6.9% in April and continuing the downward trend that started in October 2025. A stronger jobs market may also give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates to get ahead of their inflation threats too.
In China, companies, hospitals and schools there are rolling out tests about whether AI chatbots can read your mind. The various goals involve emotional support, screening and treatment. Regulators there are moving to define the limits.
In the EU, Ireland has had a stunning reversal of fortune, with their economy contracting more than -12% in Q1-2026. It alone was enough to twist the overall EU GDP lower. Ireland's multinational-dominated sectors contracted by -27% in Q1-2026 with their domestic sectors expanding by +0.4% and more in line with the other EU countries.
Overnight, there was data out for Taiwanese inflation (firmish but low at 2.2%), Singapore retail (doing better with a +5.4% rise from a year ago), and an Indian central bank policy rate review (holding at 5.25%). None of these moved markets.
Meanwhile, India said its Q1-2026 economic expansion rolled on with a better growth rate (+7.8%) than markets were expecting (+7.2%).
The FAO's world food price index was basically unchanged in May, with dairy and meat prices stable.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday, up +11 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +38 bps (+4 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +42 bps (+3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +86 bps (+6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is holding at just under 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 2.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.95%, up +4 bps from yesterday, up +10 bps for the week. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.56%, up +1 bp for the week.
Wall Street retreated hard today, with the S&P500 down -2.7% from yesterday and now well off its record high. That is a -2.6% weekly reversal.. The Nasdaq was down -4.2% from the IPO hesitations, down -4.6% from a week ago. European markets were mixed overnight between Frankfurt's -0.7% and London's +0.1%. Yesterday Tokyo ended down -1.3% for a net weekly rise of +0.3%. Hong Kong fell back another -1.2% to end its week down -0.9%. Shanghai ended down -0.7%, down -1.0% for the week Singapore fell -0.4% in Friday trade. The ASX200 ended down -0.7% for a weekly -1.0% fall. But the NZX50 was up +0.5% at the end of Friday trade, only down -0.3% for the week.
The Fear & Greed index has slipped back into the 'fear' zone for the first time in seven weeks.
The price of gold will start today down -US$153 at US$4324/oz. That is down -US$231/oz (or -5.1%) from this time last week.. Silver is down -US$6 at just over US$68/oz, down -10% for the week.
Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday just over US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. A week ago these prices were US$87.50/bbl and US$91.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is sharply lower from yesterday at this time at 58 USc, down -80 bps. From a week ago it is down -190 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just over 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.7 which is down -60 bps from yesterday, down -160 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$60,188 and down another -4.5% from this time yesterday and still falling. It is down -18% for the week and now down -32% from the start of 2026. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.6%. And it doesn't help that crypto scams are exploding, especially in the US and empowered by AI. Reports say more than US$11 bln has been lost to them in the past year.
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