Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again.
Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead.
More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate.
It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects.
Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago.
In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum.
Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%).
In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either.
In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +39 bps (-2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +46 bps (+3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +88 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate has settle back -3 bps to just under 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 2.72%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.96%, up +5 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up at 4.63%, up +7 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has started its week slightly firmer with the S&P500 up +0.4%. The Nasdaq is up +0.9%. Overnight, European markets were mixed between London's no-change and Frankfurt's -0.6% fall. Yesterday, Tokyo closed down a sharp -3.8%. Hong Kong was down -1.2% and Shanghai was down -1.7%. Singapore also fell -1.7%. The ASX was closed for the public holiday. The NZX50 ended its Monday session down -0.9%.
The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz.
Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism.
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.
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12 Comments
What's the source for the Strait of Hormuz tolls? Oh, I see, "a semi-official Iranian news agency" quoting "a member of the Iranian parliament’s planning and budget committee".
The small number of ships passing through the Strait will be either:
1. Iranian Ships.
2. Ships that have been approved by the IRGC to pass through (who have most likely negotiated a toll in order to do so).
3. Ships that have no IRGC approval (who have not paid the toll) and are running IRGC's blockade.
I would think option 2 is the most likely explanation for non Iranian ships passing through the strait given IRGC's complete control of the strait (mines, drones. missiles, attack boats). Especially given images show those ships exiting the strait are using the toll route setup by IRGC. Very few, if any, ship owners would try and run the IRGC blockade. USN is too scared to run the blockade so a tanker moving at 25 kms/hr would be suicide (as some found out the hard way).
Interesting moment in history.
The people and institutions (like pension funds) which need numerical growth, are piling into anything. 'Buy the dip' seems to be as deep as their strategies go.
And Trump has obviously walked away from dealing with the repercussions of his date with Netanyahu. The US isn't going to up the ante - and is increasingly struggling internally. With implications for all those mentioned in my first sentence - think Kiwisaver.
Has a think-tank discussion yesterday re fuel stocks/flows - general consensus is that the poor are copping the 10% reduction and that we are out-bidding them - with debt. So a bluff, really.
Petrol’s still flowing for $3 a litre. It could change at any time, but at the moment the doomsayers seem to be wrong again, no issues with supply and price isn’t that crazy. Yes diesel isn’t cheap, but still much cheaper than predictions.
You didn't listen.
And you typecast, to denigrate.
There has to be a theatre which copped the shortfall in energy - it's just physics (engineering stuff - just saying). It was the poor of the world; we have outbid them - largely by bluff.
And the fiercely-pursued fixation on $$$$$$ continues...
'Price', in debt-issued fiat-levered First-World proxy is what, again?
Bluff
And looking at NZs position on that list of 'first world countries' is not exactly encouraging.
I said at the start that it would be poorer countries that suffered, maybe you didn't listen.
If our debt-issued fiat-levered First-World proxy isn't any good, why would people with valuable energy exchange it? People were saying fiat would collapse after the GFC, that is almost 20 years ago.
That is a valid question re Saudi Arabia - indeed all oil-sucking nations (and corporates, for that matter).
I've long pointed out that Norway had the greatest wealth in its energy stocks - but is rapidly turning a large part of those into shares in the EU stock market. Which, beyond fossil energy, will be worth?
Somewhere between much less, and nothing.
Same with the 'diversification' of the Gulf States; who is going to be staying in those high-rises, ex fossil energy?
February | 2023 | Surplus Energy Economics re fiat since 2008. It is getting a little tedious, this pointing to the past to validate the future (along with the omni-present via-denigration mechanisms...).
PDK will predictably grasp onto anything he thinks supports his poorly thought out narrative.
Better fill the tank now while it's cheap Jimbo.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/06/singapore-fuel-stocks-plummet-…
Maybe equity market rises are due to credit expansion rather than economic matters? M2 money is expanding again in the USA. Credit expansion can come in different forms and be concealed under various names.
Haven't they generally transitioned from PE ratios to speculation?
Seems to me you have to go back to about 1980; since then it has been a case of ever-bigger bubbles and ever-harder can-kicks.
AI anyone?
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