Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Trump cancelled his latest planned military strikes claiming negotiating progress. That has been enough to settle financial markets today.
But first in the US, producer prices jumped +1.1% in May from April to be +6.5% higher than a year ago and to their highest since November 2022. And before the pandemic, their highest since this series began in 2009. Core PPI was up +5.1% and a similar high. These rises were more than expected.
US initial jobless claims also rose more than expected last week.to 228,400 and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and marginally less than two years ago.
In Canada, building consents were expected to fall back in April after the spurt in March, but they fell more than expected. Residential consents fell -5.5% and commercial consents fell an outsized -10.5%, both from the prior month. From a year ago, these consent levels were +2.5% higher, but that is on a value basis and construction PPI rose +2.8% in that same time.
In Europe, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by +25 bps to 2.4% as widely expected, it's first increase since 2023. It also raised its inflation expectation to 3% in 2026 and cut its growth forecast slightly to +0.8% this year and to 1.2% in 2027.
In Indonesia, their financial crisis is intensifying with their currency in freefall and their stock market too. The worry is it may drive a social crisis at our backdoor.
In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months.
The World Bank said overnight that global growth is leaking away due solely to the Middle East handbrake. It now sees 2026 expanding at 2.5%, and 2027 at 2.8%. These are slowdowns from 2025's +2.9% expansion and the prospect is slowest growth since the pandemic.
Meanwhile OPEC bravely says that world oil demand will recover quickly after the current Persian Gulf issues are resolved.
Global container freight rates rose another +3% last week to be level with the elevated rates of a year ago, when the Houthis were threatening the Red Sea access. It is all about outbound rates from China to Europe. In fact, China to the USWC rates are holding, but much lower on a year-ago basis. Bulk cargo rates fell -12% in the past week to be +68% higher than year-ago levels.
And official forecasters are now certain enough to warn of a severe El Niño climate event starting soon. The US issued its official warning after Australia said the chances are rising. We are being warned to expect 2026-27 to bring global risks of intense heat waves, sharp drops in rainfall in some key areas but deluges in other parts. India is expected to get a weak monsoon.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -9 bps for the day. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +38 bps (-4 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +33 bps (-4 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +81 bps (-8 bps). The China 10 year bond rate was unchanged at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.68%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.84%, down -6 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is firmish at 4.58%, up +1 bp from yesterday.
Wall Street has abandoned its 'fear' mode with the S&P500 recovering +1.7% in Thursday trade on a tech stock rebound. The Nasdaq is up +2.2%. Overnight, European markets were firmer between Frankfurt's +0.1% and both Paris and London up +0.5%. Yesterday, Tokyo was little-changed, up only +0.1%. However Hong Kong was down -0.7% and Shanghai eased -0.2%. Singapore recovered +0.6%. The ASX200 closed down -0.2% in Thursday trade. The NZX50 ended session down -0.4%.
The price of gold has recovered +US$54 from yesterday at US$4152/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$66/oz.
Oil prices are down -US$5 from yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are resuming today with 69 in the past 24 hours as owners rush to get their ships out.
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is also little-changed from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,223 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.
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47 Comments
Someone needs to push Trumps bed against the wall ‘cause he keeps hopping out a different side. Or maybe Melania should hop in.
He knows he cannot win an 'actual' war in Iran, but he does know his current situation is great for manipulating markets so he will continue to play this ridiculous game, not fully realising how dangerous it could turn out to be.
Dangerous though Trump is, he is only a symptom.
Bigger picture, the US has dominated a 'screw the 3rd world out of its resources' format since WW2. Colonisation by any other name. That always peaks (ask Rome et al) and the signals are stratification of wealth often coupled with reduction in democracy (wealth-spread is incompatible with the egalitarian ideal of one person one vote).
Trump and the polarisation in the US, then, are merely manifestations of a decaying colonial enterprise. Remove him - and even remove his top-end implants (people, not hair) and THE UNDERLYING PREDICAMENT WILL NOT ALTER.
Those who are wealthy in great excess may see the world in terms of resources, but they care not as they have the greatest access to them, and the means to manipulate policy and legislation to ensure the continuance of this. Oddly enough if they considered the long term future of the planet and their fellow man, we may not be in such a predicament, given they could use their power, wealth and influence for better, however the pathological need to hoard wealth seems an addiction so many cannot seem to shake, with their views only limited to the lifetime they will tangibly have to weather any effects of their actions.
I have finished Goliath's Curse (all 500-odd pages).
Covers your post, to perfection. The quest for status is irrevocably associated with acquisition (what else do you display?) and is this ecologically self-defeating.
So you either turn to a belief that you can transcend the physics - life hereafter (Bush through Carter, our current PM, Simeon Brown - if I remember correctly; I stand to be corrected - they are dangerous because at core, they think some greater (read: smarter) deity is in control. And of course, they have the true blah blah while everyone else has the false blah blah. Or you can glory in an end-of-days who-cares-it's all stuffed approach.
Status only happens with what Kemp calls 'lootable resources' - every irruption has peaked then collapsed, usually the big monuments-to-self are done very near the end. We seem to be flawed, ecologically, via this status thing. Combined with levering vast amounts of energy - it is moving the life-supporting parameters of the planet, further and further away from the figures we've evolved within.
Far too many people believe that God will return and save them all when they confess their sins. It has even become a 'get of jail free' cry for bad behaviour. Thing is when people are made victims, the effects are for a lifetime, but the perpetrator shrugs it off and moves on to do more, perhaps saying to themselves "I didn't mean to do harm." The various churches have been guilt of this for centuries. But the damage from their actions and attitudes lives on in the memories of the victims and their descendants, and in places, the memories of the planet itself.
Reminds me of Medellin, Colombia, where they had a church in the middle of a business district with a brothel across the street. I'm sure you can imagine the order in which employees would visit before heading home to their wives.
I reckon he wants a war but his advisors tell him its a bad idea. If someone pisses him off he flips.
Self adulation brings with it many complexities and one of them is a compulsion to be never proven wrong in one’s own mind. The Iranians have been well prepared and know how to roll with the punches and play to their strengths. At present President Trump is being foiled by all of that and more, and that in itself, is something of a harbinger of the perils that will be involved in landing any force of any size on Iranian territory. To sum up, the only way out is a deal, which regardless of its content, effectiveness and reach, President Trump can conclude, in his own mind, is a great deal.
Both sides know the other's weaknesses and trying to improve their deal instead of agreeing on something that an independent would consider fair.
I do think there is the option for Trump to bomb their main assets then walk away with Iran economically crippled. It would suck for the rest of the world, hard to know whether Trump would care. And potentially the strait could open if America is out of the equation.
Everyone thinks Iran has the upper hand, but realistically they have nothing on America except high fuel prices. Iran's main threat is against their neighbouring countries.
True there is the latent threat that once everything that can be bombed has been bombed and when you have reconstructed everything, there is nothing to stop us coming back and doing it all over again. That action though is probably the pathway to a great humanitarian crisis. It would be contemporary with General Curtis Le May remarking he would bomb North Vietnam back into the Stone Age.
How do you stop the fallout of a war based on a man fighting with himself... and to think the public voted for him.
No. He sees himself as an emperor; one who is unchallengeably smart and who - by inference - can make no wrong decision. The reality is that he is a narcissist, probably on the spectrum, not overly intelligent and now declining into senility. The two are irreconcilable.
There might be some body-clock stuff in it too; seems he splurges in the wee small hours, probably alone with his demons.
The danger is that we think his removal will alter what put him there in the first place. That is illogical and increasingly looks like an unwillingness to address the underlying issue(s). The danger while he is there, is the nuke button, and the steady exit-stream of sane brains between him and it.
"we think his removal will alter what put him there in the first place" - the nutters will still vote extreme, but hopefully the more sensible people in the centre will have learnt, for a few years at least. Otherwise America is heading towards civil war.
The centre no longer exists (except in the minds of folk seeking a reversal of an inexorable trend).
The old bell-curve has gone - there are a few very rich, and an everyone else increasingly struggling. Some of the latter are in denial of their zero chance of self-improvement; history tells us those folk are leadable and a natural mob. While the elite control them, you get Trump now. When they get pi--ed with the elite, they trash the palaces and the monuments after they've run the persona out of town. And often, out of life.
But that 'centre' no longer exists; it was a product of surplus energy, per head.
The median household income in the United States is $83,730 ($143,534 NZD). Are they increasingly struggling or increasingly whinging? Keep in mind their cost of living and house prices are lower than ours.
"Keep in mind their cost of living and house prices are lower than ours. "
Is it? perhaps in some areas of necessity, certainly not in others...healthcare an obvious example.
Healthcare isn't as much as I thought according to AI: The median U.S. household spends approximately $6,200 out-of-pocket annually on healthcare.
This seems to be because employers foot most the bill. And keep in mind that is how they like it, they could have a much cheaper system like ours but don't want it.
On the flip side: no GST, no fuel tax, cheaper housing, supposedly cheaper supermarkets (I'm sceptical), big chain stores, etc.
"The article contained another sad statistic. Ninety (90%) percent of those who had homes took out a second mortgage on their homes to pay their medical debt. This means that these people have turned their medical debt into mortgage debt to deal with the situation. Such a tactic is rarely, if ever, a smart option.
According to the article, these people are not the very poor in our society. Rather, they are middle class people. Two-thirds of them were homeowners. Sixty (60%) percent of them were college graduates. Some had private insurance and still had to cough up an average of $17,749.00 per family. These were people who were facing large and unexpected out-of-pocket costs for health care.
And, finally, according to the article, sixty-two (62%) of the two million personal bankruptcies filed each year are the result of medical debt."
https://www.abi.org/feed-item/health-care-costs-number-one-cause-of-ban…
And according to AI: The median U.S. household post-tax income was $72,330, according to the most recent official data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
That is $124k NZD after tax, more than $10k a month. Not exactly living the high life, but I wouldn't call it struggling.
This is a youtube channel that's quite fascinating. It's a road trip around backcountry US. The poverty off the beaten track is in stark contrast to the shiny America media usually portrays.
Aye - it shows us why Trump.
Which JJ's links don't.
And Trump happened.
Extrapolate...
My links were the median American, the ones in the middle that decide the election. They didn't choose Trump because they were struggling, they chose him because they thought the Dems were too woke.
I'm under no illusion that America is a great place for the poor or the rust belt. Although the fact they vote Trump implies why they are poor.
There are ever-less
Audiology...?
One of the great ironies? The back country is Trumplandtm.
The lie of averages but is an up to date example to peruse...average annual expenditure of $78,000.
https://www.ramseysolutions.com/budgeting/american-average-monthly-expe…
Trumps cabinet of evangelical nut jobs don't care about "dangerous", they believe they are fulfilling biblical prophecy. They will support Israel even if it means commiting the planet to depression and famine, so long as they get their ticket to eternal fluffy white clouds. Making a bit of cash on the way can't hurt. Perhaps the lord will even allow carry ons.
The upcoming movie "Praise be to Trump - defender of the Straight" has got some great material with Apache pilots fighting an evil burning drone in their cockpit and then been retrieved by a heroic sea drone.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/06/10/us-iran-drone-pilots/
The smell of BS is strong around this one. Shahid drones are not remotely piloted and have no capacity to "attack" other aerial targets. They are made of composite materials, so doesn't say much for the armour of Apache helicopters. If it lodged between the pilots as claimed it must have been the unluckiest helicopter in history to have been hit by such a slow moving object, or the luckiest, when the contact fuse failed along with the back up self destruct fuse?
It was burning too, no?
It's a sign, I tell 'ee... we must go forth etc etc
Perhaps the pilot decided to end it all instead of listening to another Pete Hegseth sermon?
The Shadows - Apache (1960) 4K
Always need mood music from an optimistic era...
Brilliant piece. Few Remember that's where Cliff Richard started.
Guess there had to be a downside...
Apparently though, there was a connection too, to backsides?
Music is art. You don't always have to appreciate it. Don't criticise a person for their beliefs, only their attitude. From what I know of Cliff Richard, his attitude isn't bad. Too many people judge him because of his sexual orientation when it is really none of their business.
Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.
Yesterday, Trump was already claiming the football world cup as "the greatest ever", before it had even begun.
"Today we settled up with Iran,” Trump said during a telephone rally for Barry Moore, his chosen candidate in a Senate race in Alabama. "People will start coming home very soon. It's pretty much completed. We got everything we wanted."
Surely he can't TACO after saying that? When do we get the details of this deal, what is the hold up if it is settled?
Surely he can't TACO after saying that?
Just you watch him.
Aye.
People don't seem to realise that a falsehood (that we can carry on - indefinitely and exponentially - with 'economic growth') is becoming increasingly exposed as the horsepoo it always was.
To keep the chimera of a lie going, it was inevitable that comfortable liars would emerge as the leaders of said doomed crusade. The only other possibility was genuine believers (genuinely thinking their lie was a truth). So we see the emergence of both. Everywhere. Including here.
My god this is so tedious trying to turn every single comment on this site into a thread on limits-to-growth no matter what the topic.
Good luck trying that approach if you end up visiting oncology
Not an appropriate comment
I agree. For the last few weeks I've been scrolling past posts from pdk, same with Averageman and NZGecko on property articles for the last few months.
Yep, Trump's insiders will be buying up all the oil futures and when he starts carpet bombing Tehran on Monday just before the market opens they will make a killing, literally and figuratively.
Fool American public once, shame on you. Fool American public 39 times, shame on American public
"Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told state TV that reports of an agreement were "speculative" and "nothing has been finalised".
"The Israeli prime minister's office confirmed a conversation had taken place and said Israel "is not a party to the memorandum of understanding".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78y6w78828o
How many times is this going to be fallen for?
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