A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; FHBs caught in some key cities, eyes on R/E agents, tourists drive credit card activity, waiting for bird flu to arrive, swaps stable, NZX stable, NZD softish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Gold Band Finance has raised rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CAUGHT BETWEEN
Housing remains unaffordable for typical first home buyers in Auckland, Tauranga, Kapiti and Queenstown where first home buyers are caught between not being able to scrape together a 20% deposit and being unable to afford the repayments on a low equity loan.

'WE ARE WATCHING YOU'
The DIA is keeping the pressure on the real estate agents over money laundering risks. They say not all real estate agents are monitoring higher risk clients or transactions. Given the scale of real estate transactions and the risks in the sector, the overall reporting volume from real estate agents is too low, they say.

JAIL FOR TAX FRAUD
An Auckland man was sentenced to 11 months’ imprisonment for tax fraud. William Ricco Solomon appeared in the Auckland District Court on 19 June after trying to get seven GST refunds that he was not entitled to. Between November 2023 and May 2024 Solomon submitted GST returns through two myIR accounts, trying to get $247,665. No money was released to him. Inland Revenue’s systems show Solomon amended figures multiple times in some returns and assessed how this would impact the refund amount before finalising the return.

FLYING CLOSER
Bird flu is now in Australia, admittedly Western Australia, so at least 5000+ kms away still. But given our closer travel contacts, this is a worry. Officials here are worried. The Ministry for Primary Industries, the Department of Conservation, the Ministry of Health, and Health NZ have been working together with industry and local councils to get ready.

CREDIT CARD USE MODESTLY HIGHER, SMALL SIGNS OF CREDIT STRESS
Credit card billings came in +5.1% higher in May than the same month in 2025, although on NZ-issued cards this was only +3.3%. Tourism drove the rest with billings on overseas issued cards up +17.2%. The proportion of personal balances outstanding which were interest-bearing increased to 51.9% in April (this data is lagged by one month) and its highest since February 2025.

NZX50 LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1%, with a weekly rise now of +0.9%. It is down -0.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% so far today. a2 Milk, Fletcher, Chorus, and Ryman are rising while SkyCity casino, Gentrack, Kathmandu, and Tourism Holdings are in retreat.

SYNLAIT DID THE GROUNDWORK, A2 MILK TO GET THE PAYOFF
The a2 Milk Company has achieved a significant milestone in its China growth strategy – approval from the Chinese State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) to transition the two China label infant milk formula (IMF) product registrations acquired in connection with the a2 Pokeno facility to a2 branded products.

HOLDING AT A RECORD LOW
The Chinese central bank has kept its key lending rates (Loan Prime Rates) at record lows for a 13th straight month in its June review. Chinese economic momentum has recently sputtered, delivering mixed economic data, so this cautious no-change was widely expected.

GOING SOFT
In Australia, their housing market is slowing noticeability. This past week and weekend their auction clearance rate fell below 50% and to its lowest in six years. In Brisbane it got as low as 33%. In Sydney it was 47.4%. In Melbourne it was 50.6%.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be very little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +3 bps at 2.71% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.80%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.66% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.47%, up +1 bp from this morning. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate unchanged at 4.44%.) The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.49%.

EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The local equity market is now down slightly from Friday, down -0.1%. The ASX200 is up +0.1% however. Tokyo has opened up +2.0%. Hong Kong is down -1.1% but Shanghai is only down -0.4% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street looks like it might open its Monday trade tomorrow with the S&P500 futures up +0.2%,

OIL PRICES RETREAT
American oil prices are down -US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$75.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$79/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS FIRM
There has been quite active trading so far today and the price is still at $54.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$33/oz from this morning, at US$4188/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just on US$65.50/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar has retreated another -10 bps from this morning against the USD, now just on 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI- is now just on 61.1 and down another -10 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,212 and little-changed from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».