Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. But we have an analysis for market shares here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has trimmed TD rates for terms 2-4 years. SBS Bank has ended its 4.50% 'special' with their 1 year rate reverting to 3.90%. WBS has raised their one year rate to 4.20%. NBS has done the same to 4.55%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RELIEF IN SIGHT
Falling diesel prices are flowing through to lower building costs. Builders are getting some relief as those lower diesel prices help stabilise rising construction costs according to QV's CostBuilder.
WHERE THE NEW JOBS ARE - CANTERBURY IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
Stats NZ reported today that there were 2.35 million actual filled jobs in May, up +15,371 jobs (+0.7%) from May 2025. For those aged 35 and older, this is good news (+26,143 new jobs). For those younger than 35 it is not so good (-10,412 jobs). Those job gains were not in Auckland. Canterbury had a +7,647 jobs gain, Auckland a +3,399 gain, Waikato a +3,211 gain. The gains were largely in the public sector (+15,310) with minor contributions from the financial sector (+3,018). Jobs were lost in professional, scientific and technical services (-2,092).
NZX50 TURNS HIGHER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4%, with a weekly rise of +0.8%. It is up +0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.0% so far today. NZX50 starts the week higher despite broad selling; Gentrack, a2 Milk, Mainfreight, and F&P Healthcare lead the gainers; Serko, Briscoes, Ryman, and Vista lead the decliners.
DEMAND STAYS ELEVATED
Turnover levels in the April/May/June period for NZGB bonds on secondary markets has stayed unusually high. Although last week wasn't a record (at $83 bln) the average weekly turnover for the last quarter has been $80 bln per week, easily topping earlier periods (apart from the unusual twist in December 2025). There aren't many markets here that can boast turnover of $80 bln per week.
JAPAN'S RETAIL UPSWING
Retail sales in Japan rose +5.3% in May from a year ago, rising from an upwardly revised +2.8% rise in April and higher than the expected +3.2% gain. It was also their strongest growth since November 2023. The strength was broad-based and especially in new car sales. Not driving this increase was fuel costs because they actually fell in the month.
SINGAPORE SURGE EXTENDS
The surge that started in March for Singapore's producer prices has only risen from there, coming in +26.8% higher than year-ago levels. This doesn't include fuel, but it does include chemicals (+29%) and machinery (+31%).
SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed but on the firm side today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps at 2.69% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.75% from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen back -7 bps to 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.65% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.39%, little-changed from this morning's open. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +2 bps at 4.36%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.38%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The local equity market is firmer from Friday, now up +0.4%. The ASX200 is up +0.2% so far. Tokyo has opened by retreating -0.7%. Hong Kong has risen +1.9% but Shanghai is only up +0.1% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +1.5%
OIL PRICES TURN UP
American oil prices are up +US$1 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now just on US$70/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$72.50/bbl after both sides traded retaliatory blows in the Persian Gulf region.
CARBON PRICE FIRM
There have been few trades today but the price has risen back by +$1 to $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$23/oz from this morning, now at US$4066/oz. Silver is unchanged at just over US$59/oz.
NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar has held from this morning against the USD, now just on 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 60.4 and up +10 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN STABILISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$59,976 and up +0.8% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 1.2%.
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10 Comments
WSJ: "Germany’s famously open economy was its greatest economic asset, delivering almost 20 years of uninterrupted growth and turning it into one of the biggest winners of globalization."
Germany's trade competitiveness for a long time was based on its ability both to suppress household income growth relative to productivity growth (as it did, for example, after the 2003-5 Hartz reforms), and to keep its currency cheap (as it did through adoption of the euro).
Under the current form of globalization, in other words, we experience an example of the Kalecki paradox, in which wage-suppression policies that allow one country to grow faster than its trade partners are actually bad for overall global growth – to the extent, anyway, that consumer demand drives investment among its trade partners.
In this system, all countries are under pressure to suppress wage growth in order to expand manufacturing and retain manufacturing employment, but the "winner" is the one who is able to do it most effectively. For many years, when much of China's high saving was directed into domestic investment, Germany was one of the main winners from this system. But as Chinese investment became increasingly unproductive, Beijing began trying to rein in the debt needed to fund so much unproductive investment. This process, of course, took off after the 2021-22 property crash, and once that happened, Germany's ability to benefit from the Kalecki paradox evaporated, as it quickly became one of the main losers of the system.
The point is that the problem isn't China. The real problem is a system that rewards countries for implementing policies that undermine overall global growth. The good news is that for many years, when Germany was able to exploit the global trade regime, it was also one of the greatest defenders of this system.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/the-openness-that-powered-germanys-eco…
AKA...the race to the bottom.
Only works as long as 'growth' remains viable.
The Protestant virtues of work ethic and productivity mean that we admire Germany and Japan to some extent.
Perhaps our consumption-led Ponzinomics economic model (the Anglosphere in general) is not the Great Satan after all.
Their batshit crazy virtue signal energy policy didn't help either.
"Compensation costs for the curtailment of renewable energy fell by around 22 percent to 435 million euros in 2025, compared to the previous year (€554 million in 2024) ...Curtailment compensation paid to renewable energy suppliers is thus only a part of the overall grid congestion management costs. These amounted to 2.9 billion euros in 2024, the final year for which data is available."
“The government is responsible for the highest electricity prices in Europe – yet at the same time, electricity is being wasted,” Bartsch told newspaper Der Spiegel. “This absurdity, which is being borne by consumers, must come to an end.”
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/renewable-curtailment-compensation…
"Had Germany spent $580 billion on nuclear instead of renewables, and the fossil plant upgrades and grid expansions they require, it would have had enough energy to both replace all fossil fuels and biomass in its electricity sector and replace all of the petroleum it uses for cars and light trucks."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/09/11/had-they-b…
It never gets old
Clarke and Dawe - Growth first. Then these other things can be dealt with, whatever they are.
So every single job created this last year was in the public sector. Is there a breakdown ?
Costco’s private label Kirkland Signature has scaled into a top‑tier global CPG “megabrand” that now drives roughly a third of the retailer’s merchandise sales. Total value in 2025 was USD90 billion.
Giving that some perspective, this is higher annual sales than:
-Boeing ($89B)
- FedEx ($88B)
- T-Mobile ($88B)
- P&G ($84B)
- Wells Fargo ($80B)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kirkland-quietly-became-costcos-most-094…
"Interesting" deals are appearing now, in the NZ Property sector.
The home hoarders here, laughed at the Gecko, when he proposed home prices reverting to 2015 to 2018 prices.......
Laughing's did not age well....at all!! - as these prices are becoming common now, in mid late 2026...
Neighbours just sold at 2017 RV.
Ponzinomics now reversing up hardcore!!
This market to hit bottom in 2028 or 2030 ??
What happened 40 years ago?...whats happening now.
Interesting, I had not really listened to Prof Keen before.
Will go further down the rabbit hole.
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