A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Kiwibank changes mortgage rates up & down, business confidence improves, ComCom eyes payments concentration, savers shift from savings a/cs to TDs, swaps & NZD little-changed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised & lowered some fixed rates late yesterday. Details here. And we have an analysis for mortgage market shares here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SHARP IMPROVEMENT
The June update of the ANZ Business confidence survey has found a sharp improvement. Business sentiment jumped to a higher net positive. Expected own activity rose also to a larger net positive. Most of the lift in both preceded the sharp fall in oil prices mid-month. Inflation indicators were softer. Average inflation expectations eased from 3.63% to 3.36% in June, cost expectations fell, and pricing intentions fell to a net 51% expecting to raise prices, the lowest since November. Again, most of the moves were already evident in the early-month responses, observed ANZ.

'MAKE A REGISTER'
The Insurance Brokers Association wants the Government to create a register of properties with Section 72 hazard notices, saying the implications of the notice aren't widely understood. A Section 72 Notice alerts future buyers, banks, and insurers that land is known to be at risk of a specific natural hazard (such as flooding, slippage, or coastal erosion).

COMCOM HIGHLIGHTS INCREASING VISA & MASTERCARD DOMINANCE
The Commerce Commission says 74% of consumer payments now use Mastercard and Visa, up from 43% in 2019. As more consumers pay online, tap their cards, phones or devices, a larger share of transactions incur payment fees, which over time increases the cost to NZ businesses of accepting payments, the Commission says.

COMCOM HANDS OVER CCCFA SUPERVISION TO FMA WITH 3 FINAL SETTLEMENTS
The Commerce Commission is going out with a bang before passing over responsibility for oversight of the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA) to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) on Wednesday. It has secured three final settlement agreements, with ASB, TSB, and Nelson Building Society, who it says have all admitted to breaching the CCCFA responsible lending requirements having self-reported to the regulator. Over 20 years the Commission says it took more than 60 cases to court, overseeing remediation of nearly $90 million to consumers. The Government decided to shift CCCFA responsibilities to the FMA to create a single conduct regulator for financial markets.

NZX50 TURNS HIGHER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7%, with a weekly rise of +1.5%. It is up +0.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% so far today. There are 45 gainers so far today led by Scales, Port of Tauranga, Oceania Healthcare, Contact and Auckland Airport. There have been 33 decliners led by Synlait Milk, Briscoes, NZME, SkyCity casino and The Warehouse,

SKIPPED, AS SCHEDULED
FYI, there isn't a full dairy auction overnight this week, The next one is July 7. We will however have a GDT Pulse event for a second consecutive week.

BORROWING FOR HOUSING EASES MARGINALLY
Total lending to housing rose +$2.0 bln in May from April to just a tick under $400 bln. 98.7% of that was with banks. But the growth slowed to +5.7% from a year ago, the slowest expansion of any month in 2026.

BORROWING BY BUSINESS PICKS UP
Meanwhile, lending to business picked up, rising +4.85% for the year and the fastest pace since March 2023, and casting aside three months of small declines. Lending for agriculture is stable and unremarkable. Farmers have strong cashflows and don't need to borrow as much these days.

SHIFTING FROM SAVINGS ACCONTS TO TERM DEPOSITS
Households added +$1.7 bln to their term deposit accounts, the most since July 2024. But almost all of that was a shift from savings accounts. In fact, overall household deposits only rose +$188 mln in May 2026, an unusually small rise.

CONCENTRATION RISKS
The Australian superannuation system is very large with about AU$4.5 tln in assets. Similarly, their banking system is very large (AU$3.5 tln in assets). And they are dependent on each other. Regulator APRA is concerned about the connectedness and links between the two, and ordered system-wide stress testing involving their largest firms and funds involved. What they found was relatively reassuring about their ability to withstand severe stress. But they also found that the concentration will raise stresses and these will increase as it gets even larger.

HANGING IN THERE
China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. This unofficial results will come tomorrow (Wednesday) and Friday.

ROCKETLAB MUSCLES UP
Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium’s network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be on the soft side today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.69% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.73% from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate unchanged at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.67% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.38%, down -1 from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +2 bps at 4.38%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.37%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is firmer from yesterday, now up +0.6%. But the ASX200 is down -0.1% so far. Tokyo has opened up +0.9%. Hong Kong has fallen -1.1% and Shanghai is down -0.2% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.6%. Wall Street ended its Monday session the S&P500 up +1.2% while the Nasdaq was up +2.1%.

OIL PRICES TURN UP
American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$70.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$74/bbl and up +US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There has been little trading and the price has held at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD MUCH LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$101/oz from yesterday, now at US$3965/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just on US$57.50/oz.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday at this time, now just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.4 and little-changed from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$59,876 and down a very minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».