A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Auckland house sales volume up, prices down, ditto nationally, Crown accounts give dour signals, worker share slips, swaps hold, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. But the Co-operative Bank has extended its FHB rate discount (-10 bps) to all fixed terms. Previously it only applied to its 6 month term. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SOLID SALES, BUT MEDIAN PRICE TUMBLES
Barfoot & Thompson had its strongest June sales volume since 2021 but the median selling price fell -$40,000 from May, a -4.1% one month dip to be -4.2% lower than a year ago. They say sellers succeed when meeting buyers lower price expectations.

DRIFTING DOWNWARDS
Confirming that, Cotality says the median dwelling value is slowly drifting downwards. Housing markets are still in buyers' favour, with little chance of runaway prices anytime soon.

TRENDING HIGHER
Residential building consent numbers slipped back in May, dropping -4% from April but largely as expected. However, that only reversed some of last month’s large +11% rise. Looking at the longer-term, consent issuance has been trending higher for a year now. Over the past 12 months nearly +40,000 new dwellings were consented. That’s the highest annual level since 2023. There were 18,271 stand-alone houses consented in the year ended May 2026, up +17% compared with the previous year. In the same period there were 17,230 townhouses, flats, and units consented (up +22%), 2,554 apartments (up +20%) and 1,682 retirement village units (up just +3.4%).

NO PROGRESS I
While the May Crown accounts don't show much, if any, improvements in the Government's finances, they also do not reveal higher tax takings which would be a signal the wider economy is no longer retreating, but that is sadly not the case. Income tax receipts from individuals were unchanged in May from a year ago despite 'inflation' in these eleven month accounts.. May corporate tax receipts were up +3.4% from May a year ago. GST was up only +1.2% and far less than just holding on to inflation. This is all backsliding from April.

NO PROGRESS II
Stats NZ today released data that shows "compensation of employees" to March 2026. We matched that with the March 2025 nominal (s.a.) GDP data to check whether workers are winning a better share of economic activity. Sadly they aren't. The March 2026 result was 42.6% of GDP, the lowest share since March 2019. In between this rose to a high of 45% in September 2021 and a similar level in December 2023. It has been all downhill for workers since then. It is easy to observe the Luxon/Willis Government started in November 2023.

NO PROGRESS III
And this is largely confirmed by the June retail report from Paymark. They said consumer spending dropped in June setting up a weak winter. The hospitality sector continues to do it tough. However, one retail sector doing better is the one we noted yesterday - car sales.

IF YOU WERE WONDERING ...
... where the June ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey is, which is usually released on the last business day of the month, it will be out tomorrow afternoon (Friday).

NO LONGER ACTING
"Following an extensive recruitment process" Angus McGregor has been appointed by the RBNZ to be Assistant Governor Financial Stability. He has been Acting Assistant Governor Financial Stability since March 2025 when Christian Hawkesby departed.

DIA'S AML DIRECTOR LEAVES FOR CONSULTANT ROLE
As the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) steps up as the country's sole anti-money laundering and countering financing of terrorism(AML/CFT) regulator, Serge Sablyak, who until recently was DIA's director of AML/CFT, has taken up a new role in the private sector at consultancy AML Solutions. The DIA has this month taken on AML/CFT supervision roles previously held by the Reserve Bank and Financial Markets Authority, on top of its existing responsibilities.

NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today, with a weekly rise of just +0.2%. It is now down -0.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up +5.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed so far today. Ryman, Sanford, Kiwi Property and EBOS lead market lower while Briscoes, SkyCity casino, Skellerup and Investore Property lead the gainers.

HIGHER DEMAND, LOWER YIELDS
Today's NZGB bond tender was very well supported indeed with 118 bids worth $2 bln for the three maturities on offer. In all cases, yields were lower than at the prior equivalent events.

PLENTY OF PROGRESS
Rabobank's monthly rural markets update paints a positive picture of strong demand and a retreating input cost bubble. Farmgate beef prices remain firm as supply catches up and export volumes surge, while strong global demand, particularly from the US, underpins returns and supports a positive winter outlook, although a surge of supply from Brazil will limit the upside. Sheepmeat farmgate prices continue to strengthen, supported by strong export demand. With wool on the up too, confidence is building ahead of the new season.

A RARE DEFICIT
In Australia, their May exports fell -6.9% from April to be just +3.1% higher than a year ago. Their imports were +2.6% higher than April to be +13.9% from a year ago. So their merchandise trade balance shrank to -AU$1.7 bln in May, their first deficit since January 2018. They also reported that after hitting AU$7.9 bln in February, their gold exports retreated to just AU$4.5 bln in May.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed at the short end and firmer for longer durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.73% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.82% from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate down -1 bp at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.72% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.48%, up +6 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +5 bps at 4.41%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.48%, holding its recent move up.

EQUITIES UP & DOWN AGAIN
The local equity market is softer from yesterday, now down -0.6%. But the ASX200 is only down -0.1% so far. Tokyo has opened down -1.3%. Hong Kong has risen +1.0% but Shanghai is down -0.7% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 down -0.2% while the Nasdaq was down -0.7%.

OIL PRICES FALL
American oil prices are down -US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$68/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$71/bbl and down -US$2.50.

CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
There has again been very little trading and the price has slipped to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$77/oz from yesterday, now at US$4057/oz. Silver is up +US$2 at just on US$60/oz.

NZD FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday at this time, now just on 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.7 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN TURNS BACK UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$60,370 and up +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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