Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB raised its one year fixed rate today by +10 bps to 4.75% and lining itself with most other majors for that fixed term. (ANZ is still at 4.65% however.). Kainga Ora/HNZ raised all its floating and fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
AN EDUCATION MAGNET AGAIN
Visas approved for full fee paying overseas students hit their highest point in at least a decade in June. Fee paying overseas students and the children of foreign workers attending our schools are both showing strong growth in 2026.
CONTINUING STRONG DEMAND, BUT YIELDS RISE
There was $450 mln on offer of NZ Government bonds at today's three-tranche tender. They attracted 114 bids worth almost $1.7 bln. Across all maturities, yields were about +20 bps higher than at the prior equivalent events between 3 and 6 weeks ago.
NZX50 LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was little-changed that point from yesterday, but up +1.1% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed (-0.1%) so far today. There were 42 gainers led by Tourism Holdings, Vulcan Steel, Summerset, and Investore. There were 36 decliners and these were led by Gentrack, a2 Milk, Napier Port, and The Warehouse.
HEARTLAND SPECIAL SHAREHOLDING MEETING SET FOR SEPTEMBER
Heartland Group Holdings says it now intends to hold a special shareholder meeting to vote on the proposed TSB-Heartland merger on September 30. Heartland announced in June that it had signed a deal with TSB's parent, the Toi Foundation, to buy TSB in a deal valued at $620 million. Heartland’s special shareholder meeting was previously set for August 31, but that was scrapped after the Toi Foundation miscalculated the initial public consultation timeframe with Taranaki residents by a day. Toi has since reopened community consultation, which will be completed in August. Heartland needs Toi Foundation trustee approval before it can hold its special shareholder meeting. The proposed deal is subject to satisfaction of several conditions, including community consultation by Toi Foundation with Taranaki residents, Heartland shareholder approval and New Zealand and Australian regulatory approvals.
MERCURY NZ INVESTS $53 MLN IN NZ ‘AI FACTORY’
Mercury NZ has secured a 12.7% stake worth $53 million in Datagrid NZ’s $3.5 bln Southland AI datacentre project. The state-controlled power generator and retailer says it made the investment to support long-term renewable electricity demand and strengthen its position “alongside one of New Zealand's most advanced, large-scale, digital infrastructure projects.” The Singapore-based Datagrid NZ, which has secured approval to build a $3.5 bln AI (artificial intelligence) data centre at North Makarewa, Southland, describes itself as “New Zealand’s first AI factory.” Mercury’s chief executive Stew Hamilton has also been appointed as a director of Datagrid NZ as part of the $53 mln investment.
STRONG EXPANSION
South Korea said its economic activity expanded an impressive +3.7% in Q2-2026, almost the same as the +3.8% in Q1. This is their fastest expansion since Q4-2021, and came in above market estimates of +3.5%. Strong exports were a key factor in this result.
A GROWING LABOUR MARKET
The Australian labour market grew surprisingly strongly in June, adding +76,300 new jobs, far better than the +15,000 expected. Their jobless rate was stable at +4.4%. More than half the new jobs were in NSW, with good gains also in Queensland and Western Australia. But Victoria shed jobs in the month.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally higher today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.90% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from yesterday at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.76% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, also up +2 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +2 bps at 4.70%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.66%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has softened a bit more since 3pm, now down -0.2% so far. However, the ASX200 is up +0.7%. Tokyo has opened up +0.5% in a further recovery. Hong Kong is up +1.3% but Shanghai is off -0.1% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.8% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 down a minor -0.1%. The Nasdaq was down -0.6%.
"SMART MONEY"
By the way, those SpaceX shares that listed at US$160 each and climbed to over US$200 in the following days, are now at US$116. (Gina Rinehart was a big early investor and she bought 7.4 mln of them at a pre-launch price of US$135. She paid US$1 bln and has now lost -US$141 mln - so far.)
OIL PRICES RISE FURTHER
American oil prices are up another +US$3 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$88/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$96/bbl and up +US$4.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been fewer trades so far today and very small ones but the price has held at $56/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$3/oz from yesterday, now at US$4126/oz. Silver is still just under US$60/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.1 and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN SOFTER
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,777 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.6%.
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16 Comments
18 month mortgage rates are now around 5.1%. I got 4.45% in January, quite a big change in 6 months.
I'm not convinced our economy can support 5% plus mortgage rates, could be another case of "2027 will be a better year"
Haha I remember a few years ago (circa 2021-2022) people saying that 'NZ will enter a depression if the OCR goes above 5%'.
It happened, there was no depression, we all (mostly) survived.
I'm sure the economy will adjust to higher rates, as it has done throughout history.
Annual growth has been negative or very low for a couple of years now. Pretty close to depression...
You might need a reality check if you think this is what a depression is like.
Remember that a depression is generally considered when GDP drops 10% or more and you have 20% or more unemployment.
We are no where near a depression!!!
Unless you've become a 'DGM' (doom gloom merchant) that you used to think you were morally superior to and looked down upon because you (and others) thought they always viewed the world through a negative lens?
According to AI:
While there is no universally standard definition, economists typically define it as a period of economic downturn lasting three or more years.
Sure we haven't done quite that bad, but the last 3 years have been pretty crap.
I'm not a DGM because I think it will get better sometime soon. But increasing interest rates aren't helping.
Two tankers hit in the Red Sea.
Yet someone can still fixate on local mortgages?
And Mercury's move tells us they haven't got ordinary consumers at heart. They've just moved into the biggest Ponzi we have ever seen (what is it good for? as the song goes).
So glad I went offgrid. I used to advise folk who were on-grid to stay there - but I'm re-thinking that.
RBA research shows that most Aussies don't understand how interest rates affect inflation.
Really? RBA says "Most think higher interest rates mean higher inflation."
Well it typically does mean higher inflation on debt servicing. And given that many people are in debt, it's fair for people to have this opinion. In terms of the livelihoods of the hoi polloi, higher interest rates doesn't translate in to lower prices for the goods and services that they buy. Prices may rise more slowly and many FMCG / CPG companies may find themselves discounting to meet sales targets / incremental sales.
If anything, this research shows the wrong-headed thinking of the RBA as to how the real economy works.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-22/understanding-inflation-would-he…
Definitely worth keeping an eye on swap rates - especially 1-2 year swaps. The trend that is forming is for higher future rates especially in those shorter durations. 6+ % fixed mortgage rates before the end of the year?
And economic growth? I think your dreaming.
Orange Swan has agreed to the CLARITY Act’s ethics language, and the White House reportedly sent the package to Senate Republicans as the last major obstacle before a Senate vote.
The ethics provision is meant to restrict federal officials, including the president, from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office.
Given that the Trump family made approx USD1.4 billion from digital asset activity in 2025, I guess he doesn't care anymore.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/21/white-house-pushes-senate-de…
"The Taxpayers’ Union has released Tax Inequality: Who really pays their fair share?, a battle sized handbook exposing who actually carries their share of New Zealand’s tax burden...
...The top 20 percent pay nearly two-thirds of all personal income tax.
The top 10 percent pay more than the bottom 80 percent combined.
And the top 1 percent contribute more than the entire bottom half of taxpayers."
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/tax_inequality_2026?utm_campaign=260723_ne…
Sad bunch - mostly dinosaurs and all rejected by the populace.
I'd be ashamed to be giving them oxygen.
Speaks volumes that someone isn't.
The usual ad hominen logical fallacy in the absence of any rational constructive response to the point.
Good luck squeezing more income tax out of the lower and middle income earners who are already squeezed. If the top pay so much, this indicates that there is a much smaller middle income group than anyone anticipated, if true. The Taxpayers union does bleat a bit, and repetition doesn't equal truth and validity.
Well if that's true then making the first $20k of income tax free is a no brainer.
And yet it's jumped on as not possible every time it's mentioned. I guess the bottom end of town must actually be paying tax after all.
No surprise that the most hyped up IPO ever has gone backward since the hype has faded. Buying at IPO rarely seems to be the best time but we humans love to lineup and fight over the latest shiny thing.
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