A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; lackluster jobs data, living costs up, retailers turn positive, FHBs accept low equity loans, data center growth calculated, swaps firmish, NZX stable, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank has raised all its fixed rates today, except for its 6 month fixed rate. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-op Bank raised its 9, 18,, 24, and 26 month TD rates today. Also we have some analysis on how household deposits are changing. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LABOUR MARKET STALLS
The filled jobs data released today, tracking the IRD's PAYE payroll activity was uninspiring revealing little growth in June. That has analysts capping their HLFS survey results and seeing a small rise in the jobless rate when it it revealed next week (now up to 5.5%?). This is not a sector pushing up inflation.

FUEL FUELS LIVING COST RISE
But household living costs are rising anyway, up 3.2% from a year ago in June, hitting their highest level since September 2024. This was driven by petrol prices.

RETAILERS TURN MORE POSITIVE
Still, retailers are looking ahead more confidently. The Q2 2026 Retail Radar report shows 69% of retailers are confident of surviving the next 12 months, up from 61% in Q1. In addition, 61% of retailers are expecting to meet or exceed their sales targets in the next quarter (Q3), a much rosier outlook than the 34% expecting to meet or exceed targets in our last survey.

FHBs NOT PUT OFF BY HIGHER COST LOW EQUITY LOANS
RBNZ data shows that just over half the mortgages approved to first home buyers in June were low equity loans, and these are driving the growth in first home mortgages.

PAID PROMOTION?
TikTok in Australia has commissioned Infometrics to review its impact on the New Zealand economy. Unsurprisingly, the results will be useful for TikTok to claim it is making a positive contribution to the local economy. The claim is that it supports 9,700 jobs and contributes $1.2 bln of our $440 bln nominal economy. Of course, this is a claim based on users activity on the platform, and isn't extra because of a counterfactual. Read the Report and make your own assessment.

WILD SWINGS
Spot electricity prices have been very volatile recently, partly because of high consumer demand when there is calm still conditions that affect wind generation. Two nights ago wholesale pricing was extremely high nationwide, peaking over $3000/MWhr for a few hours, but then it fell to very low levels, down below $20/MWhr. Rising wind generation is behind the variability.

BIG INCREASE IN COMPLAINTS TO FMA ABOUT MORTGAGE FRAUD
Financial Markets Authority CEO Samantha Barrass says the FMA received 21 complaints about mortgage fraud last year, up from seven in 2024 and about one a year before that. "It’s an area where we will continue to focus, not least because of the impact on both lenders but also the borrowers, who are often the victims at the heart of these cases," she says.

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was little-changed today, and up +1.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% so far today and recovering more of Friday's drop. Kathmandu, Spark, Napier Port and Fletcher lift the NZX50, while falls in Serko, Gentrack, Mercury and Oceania Healthcare offset these.

DATA CENTER ENERGY GROWTH DEMAND HIGH
A BMI/FitchSolutions review of data centers here reveals that the 62 in operation now use 172MW of 'live capacity. Another 89MW is under construction. And a further 313MW is planned. If it all comes on line, that will be an increase of +230%. The attraction for being here? our renewables energy profile. Data center demand will compete with existing industrial and household use.

BIRD FLU UPDATE
New Zealand has only 2 confirmed detections of H5 high pathogenicity avian influenza (H5 bird flu). There have been no further detections of H5 bird flu since 17 July 2026. There is no evidence of any mass mortality in wildlife. There has been no detection in poultry. All the same, biosecurity regulations protecting poultry are being updated.

LIQUIDITY RISK LESSON, AGAIN
An Aussie residential property developer, Bathla, has sourced some of it funding from Centuria. Unfortunately for both firms, Bathla is in financial strife and Centuria investors in some funds are rushing to redeem their investments exposed to Bathla. That sort of behaviour is otherwise known as a "run". And it may not end well for either firm. The Centuria Bass Credit Fund holds six active loans with Bathla, consisting of construction, land, and residual stock loans, all 'secured' by first mortgages. Centuria has an active New Zealand operation. It is obviously independent of its Bathla exposure, but unnerved investors don't always act rationally (from the fund manager's point of view). This is just another in an endless and long-running series of lessons on issues of liquidity risk. Investors tend not to understand this risk until it hits them in the face. Fund managers obviously don't either, sometimes.

MISLEADING CLAIMS COST AU$55 MLN
And staying in Australia, their Federal Court today imposed penalties of AU$35 mln against Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd and AU$20 mln against Latitude Finance Australia for misleading conduct and false or misleading representations they made in a national advertising campaign promoting a 60-month interest free and no deposit payment method for goods purchased at Harvey Norman stores.

SWAP RATES MARGINALLY FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates may have firmed slightly today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.91% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from yesterday at 5.02%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also little-changed at 2.77% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76%, and up 2 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -7 bps at 4.71%.) The UST 10yr yield is down another -4 bps at 4.63%.

EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market is still unchanged since 3pm - and that is better than all the markets we follow. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is has dipped -0.2%. Tokyo has opened down a very sharp -4.4%. Hong Kong is down -0.5% and Shanghai is down -1.4% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Exchanges with exposure to chipmakers are being hit hard and that sentiment may hit the US tomorrow. Wall Street was unchanged in Monday trade on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -0.2%.

OIL PRICES FALL
American oil prices have dropped back another sharp -US$5 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$80.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$86.50/bbl and down -US$6. The uneasy pause in fighting is behind the shifts because it is extending.

CARBON PRICE ...
There have been very few trades so far today and the price has held at $56/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$43/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4045/oz. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz and down -US$2/oz from yesterday.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower against the USD from this time yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.6 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN FALLS BACK
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,164 and down -3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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