A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; business opinion susceptible to geopolitical twists, Auckland housing completions lower, trouble at the FMA, misery rising, swaps firm, NZD up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised its one year fixed rates by +10 bps. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BETTER BUSINESS SENTIMENT
ANZ said it noticed a shift in opinion between its early July and late July responses to its business confidence survey. The later responses were more downbeat. Overall though, this survey's results show business confidence jumped back to levels more like those that prevailed between February 2024 and February 2026, before the US-Iran conflict. Inflation indicators were softer by -0.2% (to 3.15%) and pricing intentions fell 4 points to a net 47% expecting to raise their prices in the next three months. But the split responses noted on the timing of them pushed ANZ to headline the results: "ask me again next month".

AUTUMN SLUMP
New home volumes being completed in Auckland fell and are almost back to where they were four years ago before the recent residential construction boom. They slumped in the city over autumn.

WORKPLACE CULTURE
The regulator responsible for monitoring conduct and culture in the financial sector apparently has issues of its own. They issued this note today: "The FMA Board has recently become aware of cultural concerns at the FMA and is assessing the matters raised as a matter of urgency. Samantha Barrass is on a period of leave from today. During this time, board member Alastair Hercus will step into the role of interim Chief Executive."

ELEVATION
The RBNZ has a new role, a deputy Chair. Byron Pepper, who has been a Director of the RBNZ Board since 1 July 2022 and who has served as Chair of the Financial Policy Committee since its establishment and previously chaired the Financial Stability Oversight Committee, has been elevated to the role, under Chairman Roger Findlay.

FIVE YEARS OF EXCESS MISERY
In basic [popular] economics, "misery" is measured by tracking the sum of the inflation rate plus the jobless rate. It is rising by this measure, now its highest since mid-2023. In Australia the same tracking shows it peaked there in March and fell in June. The Aussie rate is lower than the NZ rate, meaning misery is less there than here. In fact it has been like that pretty consistently since 2021. It is unfortunate for us that it has been rising consistently since mid-2024.

NZX50 FALLS BACK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -1.5% today, and down -0.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.6% so far today. Stride Property, Serko, Investore and Kathmandu have gained while Infratil, a2 Milk, Ryman and Scales lead the decliners

POPULAR AT A PRICE
Today's NZGB bond tender for $450 mln in three maturities attracted 103 bids worth $1.9 bln. That is high although not a record. The YTMs (yields to maturity) were +15 bps higher than at the prior equivalent tenders three weeks ago. Higher NZGB bond yields are consistent with higher net public debt as a share of GDP, which has been rising steadily since its recent low point just before the pandemic.

AUSSIE REAL ESTATE MARKET'S CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT
In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter".

RECOVERING?
Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them, back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates may have risen today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.92% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from yesterday at 4.98%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.78% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -7 bps at 4.65%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps at 4.69%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is sharply lower, down -1.4%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is has fallen -0.6%. Tokyo has opened up +1.3%. Hong Kong is down a minor -0.1% but Shanghai is down -0.9% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.9% at its open. Wall Street was down -1.5% in Wednesday trade on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down another -1.7%.

OIL PRICES UP
American oil prices have risen +US$1 on the latest flare-up in the Persian Gulf and from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$83.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$89.50/bbl and up +US$2.

CARBON PRICE MARGINALLY FIRMER
There have been a few good sized trades so far today and the price has firmed slightly to $55.90/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4069/oz. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz and little-changed from yesterday.

NZD UP
The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer against the USD from this time yesterday, now at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62 and up +30 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS MODESTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,090 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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