A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; BNZ raises rates, jobless rate spikes, dairy prices hold, modest new lending except dairy farmers borrow bigly; swaps retreat, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ announced increases for all its fixed rates to 4 years. Liberty Financial raised their too. Unity Money's floating rate rise became effective today. The Cooperative Bank raised many fixed rates as well. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank raised some TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

JOBLESS RATE RISES, BUT WITH MORE CONTEXT
The unemployment rate hit 5.6% in the June quarter, the highest in over a decade. The rates for those under 25 remain very high as young people continue to struggle to find work. But we should also note a couple of context things. First, labour market data is a lagging indicator and not a leading indicator. Secondly, unusually high & rising participation and hours worked both suggests there may be issues with the Q2 data. And thirdly, away from the headline seasonally adjusted data, the actual data isn't as bad and isn't showing deterioration. True, it isn't showing progress either, it's just not getting worse as the headline jobless rate suggests. And lastly, our 'actual' jobless rate of 5.4% is substantially higher than the Australian 4.4%. We are on the back foot in this comparison, and have been for the past two-plus years.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD
There was another full dairy auction earlier this morning and prices in USD were virtually unchanged overall (+0.1%), but they did dip in NZD by -0.9% on the higher currency. Of note is the new season volumes offered, very similar to the same event a year ago. But prices are now a full -10% lower this year than then.

LOWER WITH HEADWINDS
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell -3.9% in July from June. This is the largest monthly fall since November 2022. Despite this, the overall index is still up +0.5% from a year ago. The NZD Commodity Price Index fell by a similar amount, down -4.0% for the month. ANZ is warning that a rising NZD might present a stronger headwind in August.

NEW LENDING FLAT, EXCEPT TO DAIRY FARMS
New lending in June was flat overall, with little to note for residential property, commercial property or even other business lending. But there was a huge unusual spike in new rural lending (+$1.0 bln from June a year ago) and almost all of that (+$981 mln) was for dairy farming. The RBNZ says "These increases are likely related to the traditional stock moving day at the start of June." But this is a material shift higher. May+June this year for dairy farm lending is +38% higher than the same two months in 2025, and +110% from the same period in 2024. You have to think it is more than just 'moving day'. Besides, wasn't the unusual April dairy capital payout meant to be used to pay down bank debt?

NZX50 FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.1% today after losing some early momentum, and down -0.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up a minor +0.2% so far today. There are 37 gainers, matched by 37 decliners today. The gainers are led by Summerset, Freightways, Fletcher and Mainfreight. The largest decliners have been The Warehouse, Meridian, Scales, and Briscoes.

BUMPS AHEAD
Our note yesterday that electricity prices have been working normally recently has been called out as premature. And it may have been. Today, prices are tracking similarly to the recent past and in a low band. But Transpower has issued a warning to expect outsized volatility as the current storm works its way up the country. Also, see this.

H5 BIRD FLU UPDATE
After Australia recorded its 'large' mass deaths (80) in South Australia yesterday, the local MPI monitoring is still only two confirmed H5 deaths here. Report any suspicious sightings.

SHARP SLOWING OF MOMENTUM
The private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China fell back sharply. It is still expanding, but now only just. Total activity and new business both expand more slowly. Employment rose for third month running, the longest sequence since the second half of 2024. And they recorded the weakest rise in average input prices since January. Yes, this survey is better than the contracting official version, but the fall-away was faster in this report.

MORE JULY PMI UPDATES
Singapore's PMI rose faster and near its best-ever, but largely because firms there built stocks to retain resilience. Japan's services PMI expanded at a slower pace in July as cost pressures remain intense there.

NOT FOOLING ANYONE
The US Treasury has managed to take the top off the Japanese yen devaluation track, but it seems only temporarily. The falling yen has made the Americans uncomfortable because it undermines their tariff policy - which likely caused the yen to fall in the first place. It seems likely that the US alone had to intervene to 'fix' the latest perception problem. Japan did earlier in the May and July, but not this time. Bessent may have wasted some serious public money. The yen is falling again today vs the USD.

SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates may be noticeably lower today, especially for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.94% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from yesterday at 4.91%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.83% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.70%, and down -5 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -1 bp at 4.73%.) The UST 10yr yield is down a sharp -9 bps, now at 4.60%.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market is now up only +0.1%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up +0.5%. Tokyo however has opened recovering a sharp +3.0%. Hong Kong is unchanged but Shanghai is up +0.9% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. South Korea is has recovered +3.4% today so far. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up +1.8% and the Nasdaq up +2.6%.

OIL PRICES FALL SHARPLY
American oil prices have fallen a sharp -US$6.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$74.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$78.50/bbl and down -US$6.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades so far today and the price has held at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD MOVES UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$70/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4129/oz. Silver is now just on US$60.50/oz and up +US$2 from the same time.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.4 and unchanged.

BITCOIN FIRMS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,321 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».