A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; ASB raises home loan & TD rates, consumer spending weak, IRD watches horticulture employers, strong NZGB demand, swaps & NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB announced increases for all its fixed rates to 3 years. The Resimac floating rate rises became effective today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The ASB also raised some TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A SOFT ECONOMY DRIVES CHEAP COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Construction of new offices and factories looking particularly soft. The latest building consent figures suggest a move towards building cheaper commercial properties.

THE FIVE FRIDAY BENEFIT
Consumer spending transacted through Paymark’s payments network was higher in July overall compared to the same month last year, but the spending lift seen in the early weeks was flattening by the end of the month. They reported transactions worth almost $3.8 bln in the month, up +1.7% from July a year ago (Auckland +1.9%, WaIKATO +3.7%, Wellington -0.8%, Canterbury +2.3%.). This year there were five Fridays however; last year only four. And Fridays deliver higher spending than most other days. Also, over the past year the CPI has risen +4.1%. These two factors consign the July 2026 as a poor result.

THE IRD IS WATCHING HORTICULTURAL EMPLOYERS
The IRD is calling out a number of practices in the horticultural sector which it believes pose a significant risk to the integrity of the tax system. The practices include workers being paid in cash, complex contracting arrangements being used to obscure what’s really going on, and obligations under the schedular payments rules not being met. They are so concerned that it has issued a Revenue Alert about the non-compliance.

NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.2% today, but up +1.5% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.0% so far today. Serko, Scales, Precinct Properties and NZX have risen while the main decliners are Air NZ, Freightways, Meridian and Channel Infrastructure.

BIG DEMAND
Today's NZ Government bond tender was a big one, attracting 142 bids worth $2.366 bln for the $450 mln on offer in three maturities. That was the largest demand since March 2025 and it helped keep the yields similar to the prior equivalent maturities.

MILLER TO TACKLE FMA's PROBLEMS
Experienced company director James Miller has been appointed as the new Financial Markets Authority Chairman as the probe into the regulator's workplace conduct and culture gets underway.

CONSTRUCTION DELIVERED. NOW WE TEST THE PROMISED BENEFITS
Auckland's long-delayed and costly City Rail Link now has an opening date, September 13, 2026, a Sunday. The total cost is expected to be $5.5 bln, of which central government has contributed about half. The claim is that when working it will deliver faster journeys, more frequent services, better connections across the city, and take car trips off surface roads. We are about to find out if the money was worth it. It is a project that broke ground in June 2016 and was originally expected to be completed by 2024 at a cost of $3.4 bln.

A GOLDEN RESULT
Strong export growth in June delivered Australia and unexpected trade surplus, of +AU$1.9 bln when a deficit of -AU$1.1 was expected after May's -AU2.4 bln deficit. Their exports rose +8.6% from a year ago, boosted by an unusual rose in gold exports, up more than+25% from the same month a year ago.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be marginally firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.94% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from yesterday at 4.93%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding just over at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -5 bps at 2.78% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71% and up +1 bp from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -7 bps at 4.66%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp, now at 4.61%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.2%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up +0.4%. Tokyo however has opened down -1.6%. Hong Kong is down -1.8% but Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +1.0% at its open. South Korea is has resumed its retreat, down -4.1% today so far. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.2% and the Nasdaq down -0.8%.

OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices have risen +US$1 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$75.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$78.50/bbl and also up +US$1.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few good trades so far today and the price has held at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$146/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4275/oz. Silver is now just over US$62/oz and up +US$1.50 from the same time.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.5 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,484 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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