A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Kiwibank ups a key TD rate; students a boom sector, no food inflation, flat rents, retail sales up less than CPI, service sector expands slower, swaps & NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank followed up last week's other rate rises with a tweak up of its FHB First Home Combo rate today. First CU raised all its home loan rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank upped its one year TD rate to 4%, matching BNZ and the Cooperative Bank (and just below Rabobank). First CU also raised some TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A GROWTH SECTOR
Overseas student numbers are at their highest level in at least 10 years. The MBE data this is based on doesn't go back earlier than 2016. These numbers of fee paying overseas students plus children of overseas workers attending local schools are up almost +10% from a year ago.

LITTLE FOOD INFLATION
Food prices rose +1.9% in July from a year ago, a much lower increase than the June +2.5% increase, and the expected +2.4% rise. (Interestingly, this is the same result that Infometrics reported for Foodstuffs grocery costs from its suppliers.) Stats NZ said grocery food was up just +1.6% from a year ago.

RENT RISES RARE, RENT FALLS MORE LIKELY
Rising even less were rents. In fact they fell -0.6% in July from June on a 'flow' basis (new transactions) to be just +0.8% higher than year-ago levels. On a 'stock' basis (which includes renters who didn't change properties), the rise from a year ago was just +0.1% and hardly measurable.

FUEL CHANGES VOLATILE
July fuel price changes were all negative from June. For petrol, they were down -5.7% from June, for diesel down -12.1%. Electricity prices even fell in July from June, although only by -0.1%. However that leaves all of these still sharply higher than year-ago levels (petrol up +15.1%, diesel +34.9% and electricity up +9.1%).

A LOW BAR
The latest retail data for July has retailers excited, seeing it as a "welcome bright spot". Typically July is the weakest retail month in the year, but not this year - that wooden spoon goes to June. July came in +1.3% higher than June (a +$90 mln boost), and the 'core retail' subsector was up +2.2% on the same basis. Hospo, durables and apparel all came in better than these overall averages. From a year ago, core retail was up +3.5%, overall retail was up +3.4%, and all electronic transactions were up +3.3%. Of course we need to see these 'gains' in the context of a June CPI up 4.1%. So retailers are allowed to get a bit excited but the core fact is that spending isn't keeping up with inflation, so it is a 'real' backslide.

SUSTAINABLE?
The BNZ/BusinessNZ services PMI report expanded again in July - just. And that is only because season adjustment gave it a boost. The 'actual' reading was negative again and has been every month since January. It's indications contrast with the factory PMIs which are aided by the strong rural sector. But the services sector s.a. growth might be a bit of a phantom - it is positive only because of stock building. New order flows, and employment, are both still weak. More here.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% today and down -0.8% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +5.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% so far today. Gentrack, Mercury, Skellerup and Turners rose, while a2 Milk, Freightways, Summerset and Air NZ retreat.

a2 MILK IN PROFIT STUMBLE
There will be a surge in NZX50 companies reporting over the next two weeks. The first is a2 Milk who reported revenue up +12.4%, but tax paid profit from continuing operations down -5.8%. In addition they were hit by costs of discontinued operations and when that is included, profits dropped by almost half. The ATM share price has fallen -3.7% so far today. About 55% of shareholders are retail, 45% institutional (with no one institution owning more than 7%. a2 Milk may tout its New Zealand supply base but it is run by Australians out of Australia.

APPROVED
The Commerce Commission has granted clearance for Japanese-owned ANZCO Foods to acquire 100% of the shares in locally-owned fellow NI meat processor Greenlea Group.

A TURN UP
In an unexpected positive turn, wool prices turned up last week, called "a major reversal of the sharp downward spiral evident across recent sales". Renewed competition has emerged driving broad-based gains across the strong wool offering.

BOOMING EXPORTS
In Singapore, they reported very strong July export growth, up +24% from a year ago to a new all-time monthly July record of S$76 bln but not quite eclipsing their June levels. This is all based on the export of electronic equipment. Their big export destinations are the US, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and India. This exporting strength enabled them to post a very large trade surplus in July.

UNEXPECTED SOFTNESS
Japan reported a softer economic activity expansion in Q2-2026 than expected. Analysts had expected their GDP to grow by +2% and up from +1.9% in Q1. But the data released today only shows a +1.1% expansion. But today's data is preliminary and may well be revised higher.

SWAP RATES UP SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates will likely be firmer in a steepening crate curve today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.95% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has risen +5 bps to 5.03% from this morning's open. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.93% today and up +5 bps and a new 30+ year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.75% and up +4 bps.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +3 bps at 4.68%.) And the UST 10yr yield is also now at 4.68%, down 2 bps from this morning.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.6% from Friday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.4%. Tokyo has opened little-changed. Hong Kong has opened up +1.6% and Shanghai is up +0.6% at its open. Singapore is down -0.9% however in early Monday trade today. Wall Street is shaping on the futures market to open firmer with the S&P500 futures up +0.3% and the Nasdaq futures up +0.6%.

OIL PRICES HOLD HIGHISH
American oil prices are unchanged from this morning with the WTI benchmark is now just under US$82.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$89/bbl and up +50 USc.

CARBON PRICE STALLED
We can't find any trades today, so the price has held at $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$18/oz from this morning, now at US$4394/oz. Silver is up +US1 at just under US$65.50/oz.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from this morning's open, now just on 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 to just under 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.6 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN UP SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,346 and up +0.4% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 0.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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