A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, Kiwibank sniffs at TSB, demographic trends look negative, big fraud uncovered, swaps stable, long bonds rise, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

KIWIBANK'S PARENT HAS INTEREST IN TSB
David McLean, chairman of Kiwibank's parent company Kiwi Capital Group told BusinessDesk there's interest in talking to TSB's shareholder the Toi Foundation about "some sort of getting together with TSB." McLean's comments come with Toi facing a legal challenge from the Taranaki Community Accountability Society to the proposed sale of TSB to Heartland Group Holdings, and ahead of Heartland and Kiwibank reporting annual financial results on Thursday.

IT IS TOUGH TO SELL IN WINTER
The high numbers of homes for sale and the lackluster sales volumes are keeping buyers in the driving seat through winter.

NOW TOO OLD TO GROW NATURALLY
At 30 June 2026, the estimated resident population was 5,357,300, up +0.7% in a year. The "natural increase" (births less deaths) was just over half the overall +36,400 expansion but was the smallest annual 'natural" growth since the 1940s. In turn, that is likely because we have aged significantly with the median age of females and males at 39.3 and 37.8 years respectively. Weak births drove a -2.1% decrease in the under-5-year-old age group in the June 2026 quarter.

INFIRM DEMOGRAPHICS
From a year ago, there were 56,268 live births registered (down from 58,365), 38,037 deaths were registered (up from 37,323). The fertility rate was 1.51 births per woman, down from 1.57. The infant mortality rate was 5.33 deaths per 1,000 live births, up from 5.19 per 1,000.

SFO CHASES FRAUD ALLEGATION
The Serious Fraud Office has filed charges against a former council manager and two associates alleging they deceived two councils into awarding contracts valued at more than $12 mln to an engineering firm they controlled. The two victim councils are Kapiti Coast (who referred the matter) and Auckland Council.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.4% today and down -0.6% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.1% so far today. a2 Milk, Stride Property, EBOS, and Kathmandu rose offsetting retreats by Briscoes, Meridian, F&P Healthcare, and Air NZ.

LOOKING WEAKER
The latest bid prices on the dairy derivatives market suggests that tomorrow's full dairy auction will be a weak one, suggesting WMP may fall -2.5% from last week's Pulse event, down more than -4% for SMP.

SLIGHTLY LESS GRUMPY
In Australia, their consumer sentiment has improved from low levels but it is still net-negative and still below last year's level at this time. The improvement was driven by mortgage holders who were relieved that the RBA didn't increase rates at its last decision. The survey also shows house price expectations declined as the housing market weakened. But renters are less likely to expect price falls and are more downbeat about home purchases.

WHEN LONG TERM INTEREST RATES TURN UP ...
Rising interest rates, especially long term rates, and especially long term benchmark rates, have the direct effect of pushing down asset prices, especially commodity assets like real estate where investors are motivated by yield. This problem is playing out dramatically in Japan. They have had loose money policies and extremely low benchmark interest rates for a very long time, mostly approaching zero. But now they are rising, are at 2.9% for Japanese government 10 year bonds, but for 30-year JGBs, a key investment target for life insurers, they have now climbed to the 3.9% range. Nikkei estimates these losses could now exceed -¥30 tin (-NZ$320 bln). For perspective, New Zealand's annual nominal GDP is NZ$450 bln, so losses of this size just for a handful of Japanese life insurers may well cause serious heartburn. They should be able to survive - but only so long as their offsetting equity gains keep coming, and that is not guaranteed.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.97% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has risen +2 bps to 5.05% from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.94% today and up +1 bp and a new 30+ year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.77% and up +2 bps.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +4 bps at 4.72%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.73%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES BUCK GLOBAL TRENDS
The NZX50 is now up +0.5% from Monday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.2%. Tokyo has opened down -1.6%. Hong Kong has opened down -0.6% and Shanghai is down -0.5% at its open. Singapore is down -1.5% however in early Tuesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Monday session with the S&P500 down -0.5% and the Nasdaq composite down -0.3%.

OIL PRICES UP AGAIN
American oil prices are up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just under US$85/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$91.50/bbl and also up +US$2.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STILL STALLED
We can't find any trades today either, so the price has held at $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5/oz from yesterday, now at US$4399/oz. Silver is holding just under US$65.50/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from this time yesterday, still just on 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps to just over 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.5 and down -10 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,065 and up +1.3% from yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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