A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; the main banks move floating & savings rates, trade surplus tightens, terms of trade worsen, commodity prices slip, China service sector expands, swaps flat, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There have been pass-through floating rate rises from ANZ, Westpac, Kiwibank, ASB and BNZ so far. Update: The Co-op Bank raised their floating rate by +35 bps but to a still-low 5.69%. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ and Westpac have announced savings rate increases, but some of those don't become effective until early next month. Kiwibank raised most savings account rates, but only by +15 bps. Xceda also rated their savings rates today. Update: as did the Co-operative Bank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TRADE DISTORTED
In Q2-2026 StatsNZ said total exports of goods and services were $32.5 bln, up from $28.5 bln in the June 2025 quarter, so a .+14% rise. Total imports of goods and services for the same period were $32.4 bln, up from $27.5 bln in the year-ago period, so a +17.8% rise. That almost wiped out the trade surplus in the quarter, which fell from +$1.0 bln to only +$93 mln. That in turn was made up of an +$870 mln goods surplus, and a -$777 mln services deficit. Big surpluses with the US and China were used to pay big deficits with the EU, Singapore and Korea. The last two were key sources of refined fuel which cost us +67% more in Q2-2026 than Q2-2025. Our goods surplus shrank by -$1.5 bln, but our services deficit improved by $580 mln.

TERMS OF TRADE TURN BAD
Meanwhile, our terms of trade worsened and by -9%, essentially because of the 'fuel' reason. Export volumes rose +6.4% while export prices rose +3.5%. Import volumes fell -2.1% but import prices rose +14%. By having to import all our fuel, we have been exposed as a net loser in the geopolitical mess.

COMMODITY PRICES DIP
More up-to-date, the ANZ August commodity price index fell -0.4% in August from July. Weaker beef and butter prices more than offset higher milk powder prices. The overall index is down -0.6% from a year ago. The NZD Commodity Price Index fell by -2.3% in August from July with the NZD strengthening +2.2% against the USD in August. This has weakened our export prices in local currency terms.

RESILIENT MARKETS, BUT FARMERS OFFERED LOWER PRICES
Meanwhile, Rabobank is saying that beef markets remain well-supported by constrained global supply, though easing US trim values and shifting Australia and Brazilian trade flows warrant watching. They say New Zealand supplies remain well positioned, with firm demand and perhaps potential opportunities emerging in China. But despite that market optimism, processor buyers seem to be pushing through lower offer prices for bull and prime steers/heifers.

NZX50 SOFT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is marginally lower today, down -0.1% a day after the OCR-boosted session yesterday. It is up +0.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% so far today. Stride Property, AirNZ, Sanford and Precinct Properties are the main gainers today. Mainfreight, SkyCity casino, Serko, and Napier Port are the main decliners 

THE STRONG DEMAND CONTINUES, AT A HIGHER PRICE
This week's NZ Government bond tender brought the usual high demand, with 98 bids for the $450 mln on offer and those bids totaled almost $1.9 bln. However bidders wanted and got higher YTMs. The May 2030 bond delivered a 4.02% median yield, up from 3.74% eight weeks ago when the same equivalent bond was tendered. The April 2037 bond delivered a YTM  of 4.88%, up from 4.64% 13 weeks ago

TRADE TIGHTENING
In Australia, they advised that their exports fell in July from June by -3.3% and their imports fell by -2.5%, giving them a reduced merchandise trade surplus of AU$1.9 bln. A year ago that surplus was +AU$6.2 bln.

RBA NOT INTERESTED IN A RETAIL CBDC
The Reserve Bank of Australia is reiterating that it doesn't see a business case for a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). "Australia’s retail payment system is serving households and businesses well," the RBA says, and "there is no clear public interest case for a retail CBDC." This follows more work by the RBA and Australia's Treasury. This conclusion is in line with what the two said in 2024, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand embarked on work towards the potential introduction of a retail CBDC in NZ.

CHINA SERVICE SECTOR EXPANDING MODESTLY
In China, their private services PMI by S&P Global (RatingDog) came in positive and certainly better than the contracting official version. The rise was soft but better than market forecasts. The increase was from better domestic demand, while foreign sales rose for the fourth straight month, but at a more modest pace than in July.

SWAPS FLAT
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today, maybe recovering some of yesterday's dip. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.08% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is back down -3 bps to 5.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.95% as the Americans try to influence this market for their own ends. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.81% and unchanged. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -2 bps at 4.78%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.77%, and down -4 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY IN MODEST RISE
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened recovering +0.5%. Tokyo has opened up  a minor +0.2% after yesterday's sharp drop. The KOSPI has risen +1.2% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened up +0.3% while Shanghai is also up +0.3% at its open. Singapore is up +0.6% in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street ended firmer with the S&P500 up +0.5% and the Nasdaq up the same.

OIL PRICES BACK AT YESTERDAY'S LEVELS
American oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday on the Persian Gulf flare-up with the WTI benchmark is still just under US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just over US$95.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE ...
There have been no trades reported so far today either so the price is still at $51.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RECOVERS
In early Asian trade, gold is back up +US$129/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4428/oz. Silver is up +US$2 at just on US$66/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we also down -10 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62 and down about -10 bps from yesterday at this time

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,711 and up a minor +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/- 1.9%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».