Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Co-op Bank raised their floating rate by +35 bps but to a still-low 5.69%. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank raised its savings account rates too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SEA OF RED
Cotality's Home Value Index was a sea of red as median values have now declined for five consecutive months. Cotality says elevated stock levels and rising mortgage rates are making buyers cautious.
A CORNER TURNED?
Construction activity was stronger than expected in the June quarter with both residential and non-residential building work picking up. Residential construction leads the rise while non-residential work lags. Over the 12 months to June, Waikato (up +11.6%) has overtaken Wellington (-8.9%) in the total amount of building work being undertaken.
NEW CAR DEMAND HIGH
There were 9136 new passenger cars sold in August, 7826 were SUVs, and 6154 were NEVs (battery or hybrid). The total was +12.2% higher than a year ago, the SUVs were +13.5% higher, and the NEVs were +50% higher than year-ago levels. In addition there were 8153 used imports, +9% higher than a year ago (and don't forget these used imports have their own SUV and NEV profiles). The new car sales in August 2026 were the most since the all-time high in August 2022, and the third highest August in history after August 1984.
FLAT & UNINSPIRING
August data out of the ANZ card transaction database shows a flat month, with annual growth falling from +6.1% to +4.1%. Bad weather may have impacted, but the data is seasonally adjusted, and August is seldom joyful weather-wise. Most headline categories dipped a little compared to July, but the “Tourism and recreation” and “Non-retail trades & goods” sectors were both higher.
LESS NEW LENDING
Total new lending fell in July to $15.1 bln, down -6.7% from June. Compared to July 2025, total new lending was down -14.8% from $17.7 bln. Of this, new business lending for commercial property in the past twelve months was up +15.3% from the year to July 2025. In contrast, new business lending to for non-property purposes was up only +5.1% on the same basis.
LIVESTOCK EXPORT MARKETS
The livestock market is in an interesting situation from a global demand perspective. Sheepmeat markets are undersupplied and difficult to fulfill, so buyers are looking at the early February Chinese New Year now and trying to schedule orders. Pricing will likely rise ahead of these logistics. Beef markets are mixed with hamburger beef under pressure from the US, happy to take heavy antibiotic beef from South America. China may also be somewhat over-supplied. The Aussies are targeting the UK with their excess. So for us the EU remains the strongest major beef market despite quota constraints and increasing price sensitivity.
MORE FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
Daiichi Life says that its wholly-owned Partners Life subsidiary will acquire Fidelity Life from the current owners, NZ Super Fund and Ngāi Tahu Holdings.
NZX50 FIRM
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.6% today. It is up +1.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.1% so far today. AirNZ leads the gains alongside Channel Infrastructure, Serko and Oceania. However a2 Milk, Contact, Summerset, and Mercury fall today.
STACKING THE DECK
The Government has appointed Southland-based registered counsellor Kathryn Wright to the Minister’s Arms Advisory Group (MAAG). Wright is "a board member of Mental Hunts, a national charity dedicated to reducing stigma and improving mental health outcomes for firearms licence holders".
UNEXPECTED JAPANESE WEAKNESS
Japanese household spending was weak in June and it got weaker in July, a result that wasn't expected. It was a contraction at the sharpest pace since January 2024. Only the Furniture and Recreation categories were positive.
GOT A SPARE 40 MINUTES?
Check out this ABC Four Corners documentary.
HELPING MAKE ENDS MEET?
More Aussies are taking "secondary employment" according to the ABS on June quarter filled jobs data. Full time jobs rose +1.9% from a year ago, but secondary jobs jumped +11.6% on the same basis. That is, +288,400 more full-time jobs and +122,000 new part-time secondary jobs over the year. They now have 16.3 mln filled jobs.
SWAPS IN FIRM HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally firmer today, again. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. (There is no update on the RBNZ September 3 rates "due to technical difficulties" they say.). Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 5.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -5 bps at 2.90%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.82% and up +1 bp. And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.77%, and unchanged from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 is now up +0.7% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.1%. Tokyo has opened up +0.9%. The KOSPI has risen +1.4% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened up +2.2% while Shanghai is also up +0.5% at its open. Singapore is up +1.0% in early Friday trade today. Wall Street ended firmer with the S&P500 up +1.1% and the Nasdaq up +1.4%.
OIL PRICES FIRMER
American oil prices are marginally firmer from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is up +50 USc to just over US$91.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same at just under US$96/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been no trades reported so far today again so the price is still at $51.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$46/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4474/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$66.50/oz.
NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, to just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.3 and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time
BITCOIN UP STRONGLY AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$80,943 and up +4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high, at just on +/- 3.2%.
HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.
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