A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; capital gains a distant memory, KiwiSaver average above $45,000, three straight qtrs above 90% renewables, Aussie inflation struggles, swaps rise, NZX lower, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC has launched a 4.99% three year rate, near a market-leading level for that term (although CCB has a 4.90% rate). All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has added +10 bps to their 4, 5 and 8 month TD rates. But all their TD rates 12 months and shorter are still below 4%. Rabobank has raised some savings account rates. NBS has too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DISTORTIONS BROADEN
The FMA's KiwiSaver report for the year to March 2026 shows that growth funds are becoming more popular as switching increases. Average balances now exceed $45,000 overall but these are growing slower than the overall funds themselves - suggesting more people are saving less while fewer people have larger balances. (Given the opportunities and challenges, it is somewhat disappointing that an important report like this one takes almost six months to be released. Afterall, there is now $155 bln in these funds, more than what households have in bank transaction accounts ($144 bln), in bank savings accounts (119 bln), but not in bank term deposits ($236 bln). And that bank data is reviewed monthly by the RBNZ analysts.).

REAL PROGRESS
The latest Energy Quarterly data released by MBIE shows renewable sources generated 92% of electricity in the June quarter, driven by strong hydro inflows and continued growth in renewable generation capacity. The charts in this report show how dramatically we have weaned ourselves off both coal and gas-fired generation. Wind power now produces more than coal.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% today. It is down -1.0% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +3.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% so far today. There are just 37 gainers led by relative minnows NZX, NZME, Turners and Vulcan Steel. There have been 49 decliners led by Fletchers, Goodman Property, Precinct, and Ryman.

GUSHER
With the BNZ 5 year bond issue taking in $1.25 bln at 4.8% pa, this bank will have much of its funding sorted for a while - and for retail depositors it probably means they won't be leading any TD rate rises. They sought $100 mln "plus oversubscriptions" Yesterday's early indication was that it would raise $750 mln. In the end it was +67% higher that even that level.

GROWING DIVERGENCE
Australian inflation expectations have remained unchanged at 4.9% in September as they were in August. That is far above the July 3.5% official CPI rate and the August CPI update won't come until the end of this month. And last month’s spike in wage expectations appears to have been a temporary blip, with expectations about year-ahead pay growth falling to just +1.2%. The squeeze is on and quite hard now.

SWAPS RISE AS RISKS RISE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be higher today on broad-based global trends following US weaknesses. Scott Bessent's moves and unrealistic self-confidence clearly has markets worried. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was down -1 bp at 3.05% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up an outsized +8 bps at 5.28% and its highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.93% and a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.91% and up +9 bps from yesterday at this time and its highest since 2023. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +3 bps to 4.79% on Wednesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.85%, and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. That nearly matches a brief 2023 spike, and before that a 2007 level.

EQUITIES ALL LOWER
The NZX50 is now down -0.8% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened down a chunky -1.5%. Tokyo has opened down -0.8%. But the KOSPI has retreated -1.1% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -1.3% while Shanghai is down -0.2% at its open. Singapore is down -0.6% in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street was lower by -0.5% on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq was down -0.6%..

OIL PRICES HIT THE TON AGAIN
American oil prices are higher from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark up US$1.50 to just over US$96/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same at just on US$101/bbl. With the northern hemisphere transitioning towards winter in about 90 days, pricing for fuel (and especially gas) is likely to be front of mind for energy suppliers and wholesale customers.

CARBON PRICE & VOLUMES RECOVER SOMEWHAT
There have again been many large trades reported so far today. The price has risen almost +$5 to now be at $49.90/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$37/oz from yesterday, now at US$4415/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at US$66.50/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81 AUc and that is a 13 year low. Against the euro we also down -10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.7 and down -10 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,350 and down -0.3% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/- 1.2%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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