A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; dairy prices rise, credit card use stable, GHG emissions dip, eyes on Q3 CPI, Japanese exports strong, swaps stable, NZD firmish, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Sharesies raised their cash PIE rate by +25 bps to 2.80% to report here either today. And this review of term PIE options may be useful. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DAIRY PRICES RISE
There was a full dairy auction overnight where the overall prices rose +2.5% in USD terms, up +1.6% in NZD terms. This brought more strength for the powders with SMP up +3.4% and WMP up +4.4%. BMP was up +8.4%. But butter, cheddar and AMF all fell. The result is an overall price level in the middle of the range since the start of 2025. It seems unlikely that farmgate payout forecasts will be changed by these auction results.

HARD TO SEE CREDIT CARD GROWTH
Although actual credit card billings were only +1.2% higher than a year ago (growth that is less than inflation), perhaps they are picking up because the seasonally adjusted gain from August is +5.3%. Make of this what you want, but it doesn't seem like any gains claimed are real. And recent retail activity tracking tends to confirm that.

MORE COST, LOWER ACTIVITY, FEWER EMISSIONS
Greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing have fallen by -126 kt (-6.4%) in the June 2026 quarter according to a StatsNZ update released today. This was driven by decreases in petroleum, chemical, polymer, and rubber product manufacturing (down -49%) and food & beverage manufacturing (down -13.4%). Household greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by -106 kt in the same June quarter, largely driven by household travel, down -5.7% (-101 kt).

EYES ON Q3 CPI
We will have full coverage of the September quarter inflation data when it is released tomorrow morning. Analysts expect it will come in at 3.8%, down from 4.1% in Q2. But these same analysts expect Q4 inflation to rise sharply again - all due to fuel and the spreading cost increases that are fanning out in other parts of the economy.

NZX50 FIRM
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% today. From a week ago it is down -0.4%. But from six months ago it is up +5.9%. From a year ago it is up +3.0% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.0% so far today. Also, there are falls in Gentrack, Vista, Infratil and Channel Infrastructure more than offset by gains by EBOS, Vulcan Steel, Fletcher and Mainfreight.

STRONG EXPORT GROWTH, JUST NOT STRONG ENOUGH
Japanese exports rose strongly in September, up +16% from year-ago levels, although that was a slower pace than in both July (an all-time record) and August. Still, the September export receipts were ¥11 tln and that matched the March 2026 level to be their second best month ever. But fuel imports more than absorbed those gains so they ran a slightly larger deficit than expected at -¥537 bln (-NZ$6 bln) for the month. They haven't posted a September trade surplus since 2020 and this latest deficit is easily manageable for the world's fourth largest economy (behind the US, China and Germany).

'MATERIALLY WORSE'
At a conference in Sydney today, an RBA deputy governor said they see the outlook for inflation "materially worse" (12:30) that they were expecting. Markets are assuming that means another rate hike there soon is much more likely.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp to 3.31% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 5.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.63% and unchanged. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.90% and down -1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.06% and down -3 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +5 bps at 5.06% on Tuesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.13% and unchanged from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES FIRMER
The NZX50 has firmed +0.7% so far today. But the ASX200 has opened down -0.2%. Tokyo is up +1.4%. The KOSPI is up +3.6% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.4% in early Wednesday trade while Shanghai up only +0.1%. Singapore is up +0.1% in early Wednesday trade. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with the S&P500 up +0.3% but the Nasdaq is unchanged.

OIL MARGINALLY FIRMER
American oil prices firmed +50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$110/bbl  and also up +50 USc.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
There has been just a few tiny trades reported today and the price is down -50c, now at $49.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold has slipped, down -US$12/oz from yesterday, now at US$4120/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just over  US$57.50/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at just under 80.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.5 and up less than +10 bps.

BITCOIN YOYOs
The bitcoin price is now at US$82,934 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just over +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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