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Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that markets now realise they need to reprice much more substantially as the Fed is about to move to inflation-fighting mode again.
Wall Street has started its week with a severe case of the jitters. The S&P500 is down -3.6% in late afternoon trade and falling. That means for 2022 it is down -11.6% and in almost exclusively one-way traffic and you may recall it started the year at an all-time high. The NASDAQ is down -4.5% so far today, and the Dow down -3.0%, so it is a broad-based retreat, led by tech stocks.
The bond market is rallying in a minor but unconvincing way. The currency markets are in full risk-off mode.
The early report on January US factory activity sees a small pull-back in their strong expansion but it is still healthy. But the services sector reported a much sharper pullback in January, barely expanding now after a strong run. Supply delays and Omicron-worsened labour shortages are getting the blame.
More or less confirming the PMI data, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index dropped below expansion territory to -0.15 in December from an upwardly revised and strong +0.44 in the previous month, suggesting there was a contraction in economic activity in December following a two-month period of expansion. It is their first decline since April 2021.
The story in Japan is similar, with a sharpish contraction in their services sector, although Japanese factories are expanding a bit more vigorously. The net of the two means they are now going backwards in January.
Singapore reported consumer price inflation picking up for them, now up to 4.0% in the year to December. This was yet another inflation report that topped estimates.
Taiwan's industrial production posted another strong result, up +10% year-on-year to December and off a strong base which makes it doubly impressive. But their retail sales only rose +3.7% on the same basis although that was to a new record high.
In China, their central bank cut another benchmark interest rate. Meanwhile, Beijing is pushing local governments to issue bonds faster, and they are responding, with early, fast and big increases.
And staying in China, the rise and rise of the lithium price has reached 'ludicrous' levels, topping US$56,500/tonne. That is a doubling in less than 3 months. Going 'green' is going to be expensive for consumers, a shift only the 'rich' will be able to afford.
In Germany, January’s ‘flash’ PMI data indicated an upturn in business activity across their economy, led by a stronger performance from the country’s manufacturing sector as supply bottlenecks showed further tentative signs of easing. Price pressures remained elevated however.
But they are a stand-out in the EU generally. Eurozone business activity growth slowed for a second successive month in January as the spread of Omicron took an increasing toll on the bloc's economy. Although supply chain delays eased and provided a boost to manufacturing production, renewed pandemic restrictions led to a marked slowing in service sector growth. Still, nothing is actually contracting.
The latest PMI data for January in Australia shows their private sector shrank for the first time in four months, affected by the latest surge in Omicron infections. Private sector output and demand both fell in January which led to employment growth grinding to a halt. Meanwhile, amid the disruptions backlogged work continued to build while input price inflation rose (and the RBA would have noticed that). Business optimism was likewise affected, falling sharply at the start of the year. The factory expansion slowed but at least it is still expanding. Their service sector is now contracting and rather sharply.
Later this afternoon the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the results of its monthly review of monetary policy. It is very likely to signal a change of course. Whatever it does will almost certainly be market-moving.
In NSW, there were 8,190 new community cases reported yesterday, a big fall, now with 227,428 active locally-acquired cases, and 24 daily deaths. There are now 2,816 in hospital there and a record high. In Victoria they reported 11,695 more new infections yesterday, also a fall. There are now 252,399 active cases in that state - and there were 13 more deaths. Queensland is reporting 10,212 new cases and 13 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 2,062 yesterday with no more deaths. The ACT has 756 new cases and two deaths, and Tasmania 619 new cases. Overall in Australia, 40,435 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.72% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +72 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +96 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is flatter at +168 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The China Govt ten year bond is -3 bps lower at 2.70%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is up +4 bps at 2.56%.
We noted earlier the sharp pullback underway on Wall Street. Overnight, European markets all slumped by between -2.5% and almost -4%. Yesterday, Tokyo ignored the signals, rising +0.2% on the day. Hong Kong wasn't so lucky, dropping -1.2% and Shanghai ended flat. The ASX200 ended down -0.5% and the NZX50 was down -1.3%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1834/oz and -US$2 lower than this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today lower by -US$2.50/bbl at just under US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$84.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today weaker yet again at 66.7 USc and another -½c drop. Against the Australian dollar we are firmish at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we are a -¼c lower at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.2, and its lowest in 26 months. This sharp shift alone will be inflationary because it is a -5.6% devaluation over the past 11 weeks.
The bitcoin price has slumped lower again, down -3.8% to US$33,964 in a continuing selloff. It has now lost -27% since the start of the year, and lost -50% since its peak in July 2021. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 5.4%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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142 Comments
We finally got some rain overnight - not much, but enough to fill in a few cracks and stop the topsoil from blowing away. It'd be nice to see a bit of green in the grass again. Time to throw even more money at irrigation and keep turning a blind eye to other jobs. Sigh.
My water is a combination of rainfall and supply from an aquifer if that's insufficient. What I use is growing your vegetables (currently squash because it has a low water requirement), and what I don't use stays in the aquifer. I'm working on building a pond to retain more runoff on-site, with riparian planting to filter the flow, and trees to shade that water to minimise algal growth. It'll take a long time and a whole lot of money, neither of which it'll give back in any meaningful way, but it'll improve resilience and sustainability.
For what it's worth, the only water that runs across my property is seasonal, and comes from a hillside subdivision nearby where urbanites who wanted a slice of rural life bought up chunks of farmland, concreted it, and built McMansions. There's now enough of them that they can have a stare-off with each other while spending their weekends mowing their heavily fertilised, retained lawns on the side of a hill.
Excellent.
Absolutely agree with your Macmansion comment.
Fly out of Hamilton airport and look down at the shambolic planning. Squeezing the sheeples into tiny apartments and in the meantime the surrounding lifestyle properties littered with pools, tennis courts and acres of mowed grass - and the owners are all at their baches. Land productivity zilch.
Looking at my Kiwisaver this morning shows it to have taken quite a hammering. My smallish amount of NZ ETFs are looking sad too. Bitcoin looking grim. What will happen with property? Luckily I was too much of a chicken to go hard in the stock market and bitcoin. It looks like 2022 is going to be a dismal year all round.
Just heading out for a 5km run now. At least preparing for Covid with exercise and a mostly carnivorous diet has put me in very good shape to face the coming storm.
I became a walker for many years and have only started running again in the last few months. I don't know why I stopped as running or jogging is dramatically better. I took it up again to improve cardiovascular performance while hiking up hills. This worked well but then I got addicted to the great feeling you get after that first 2km of running when you feel you can run forever.
We all discuss investments but there is no better investment than your own fitness. My formula: keep moving, run, lift some weights, chin ups, eat sparingly, mostly meat.
Disclaimer: I am not a medical professional - follow your doctor's advice.
My belief:
You want long periods where your insulin levels are low hence eat sparingly and when you do eat it should be high fat and high protein only. This will stop weight gain and train your body to run on fat and retain muscle. It will also correct metabolic issues that cause obesity, diabetes, Alzheimers, heart disease etc.
Most plant life is toxic and the few that are edible often need to be prepared carefully prior to eating and even then contains large amounts of inedible substances. Think about potatoes and soy beans. All plants are toxic to some degree. They contain oxalates. Some contain cyanogenic glycosides, furocoumarins, lectins, mycotoxins, pyrrolizidine alkaloids, solanines and chaconine to name just a few. Good for medicinal purposes sometimes.
Humans resorted to eating plants in desperate times. Plant based agriculture, especially grains have been a disaster for mankind. Meat can be almost completely digested down to the molecular level with just the right amount of amino acids and other nutrients.
I would suggest that if anyone is having digestive, skin or even mental issues to try going full carnivore for a couple of weeks. You won't get scurvy! That happened because sailors ate nothing but hard tack. Squeeze a bit of lemon on your fish just in case if you are worried. Mental clarity and general mood improve, digestion stabilises, energy levels increase and skin clears up.
Plants but they have evolved specialised digestive systems for processing plant matter and they effectively filter out the toxins. Plants main defence against being eaten are toxins. Nicotine and caffeine being two well known ones. Think about all plants, not just the ones we eat. Nearly all of them poisonous to humans.
You did ask why and I gave a fairly detailed answer. Remember the plants you see for sale in the supermarket today bear very little resemblance to the plants of prehistoric times. Modern fruit and vegetables are like Mars bars in comparison with their high carbohydrate loads. In the forest, by the coast, on the steppes and on the plains edible fruits and vegetables were few and far between but wildlife was fairly plentiful.
Nevertheless we are seeing a huge rise in metabolic illness so something is causing it. I have found that I don't need a lot of food to maintain weight and keep energy levels up. The elimination of most carbohydrates has another benefit and that is the elimination of hunger. I sometimes have to force myself to eat a steak or some scrambled eggs.
The good results could simply be because overall calorie intake is greatly reduced. The high fat/protein diet suppresses hunger making the lifestyle sustainable. I will probably eat like this for the rest of my life now.
I will probably eat like this for the rest of my life now.
I mean, you do you, just make sure you stock up on toilet paper before it all runs out; you're going to need it with that lack of dietary fiber. I hope you're washing your own undies.
Anyone who truly believes that human diets traditionally consisted of mostly meat has never raised or hunted animals before. The amount of energy it takes to do either of those things is huge, far more than what you get out of it as food energy at the other end. The only reason we're able to eat as much meat as we do today is because we have a once in a planet's lifetime of energy inheritence to throw at the problem, in the form of fossil fuels - not a luxury which has been available to human beings for very long at all, in the grand scheme of things. For most of that time, meat has been a delicacy.
Ötzi the Iceman, a mummified 5,000 year old body found in the Austrian Alps had a stomach and intestine full of wild red deer and ibex. Everything seemed to revolve around hunting, with flint arrowheads, knives and spears and worn down teeth from processing hides. A lot of evidence of meat eating found in caves and middens from the prehistoric era. They were able to hunt and eat cave bears and mammoths along with a myriad of less fearsome beasts.
There is some evidence that farming grain was motivated more by the making of beer than bread.
Also it is well known that too much fibre causes constipation and certainly causes gas. Humans cannot digest it! Such things are not a problem at all on a high fat high protein animal based diet.
Zachary , great comments , just been to the gym , running & weights , here in Brisbane , to hot outside .
Wife & l only eat twice a day , 6 hour window . Never been fitter , still doing half marathons at 65 .
we prob do more veg than you Z , all good .
So Kiwis you have had 22 months to get in shape....how did it work out..
Dont need a answer , same here in OZ , lot of big units driving around with KFC & coke cola.
Thanks for the interesting read. I'm veg (actually, very close to vegan).
One of the things that bothers me about meat eating (from a health perspective) is that humans have a long gut, in common with vegetarian animals. So does not surprise me that we tend to get a lot of colon cancer with dead animal passing through it. I decided back in the 80s not to take my chances.
While the length of the gut matters the gut microbes matter too. Humans have a shorter and less voluminous gut than their nearest relatives and have a less diverse set of microbes. Compared to chimps we have fewer plant digesting bugs and more meat digesting bugs. In fact we cannot digest many plants because we no longer have the right bugs and plant matter, especially raw plants, sit in your gut festering away causing inflammation. Sorry to be the bearer of such bad news!
Check this out. Our guts look similar to that of dogs.
Also this: Our gut bugs evolved with us as we split from chimps
There is little record of life pre-history but those lands teaming with wildlife would not have been teaming with available meat protein - more likely that wildlife would have been feeding on desperate bands of humans. There is a theory humans evolved sizeable brains by a diet rich in protein obtained from sea shells - clams and oysters. During those millennia of evolution we adapted to water - we are the naked ape. If we had depended on meat then our canine teeth would be larger.
More recent evidence for a predominately plant diet can be found in the Highlands of PNG. Pre-European contact (1930's) the mainly healthy and long lived (over 60) natives ate meat infrequently.
"With respect to human health, in 2015 the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) stated that red meat was a probable carcinogen to humans (Group 2A), while consumption of processed meat was carcinogenic to humans (Group 1)."
Humans resorted to eating plants in desperate times. Plant based agriculture
The hunter gatherer life was primarily meat-eating...? Source info on that?
Seems like it's been typically understood that hunter gatherers were very omnivorous and meat was not necessarily an everyday meal. I.e. we crave fat because evolution taught us to stock up on it when we have access.
During the main part of human evolution nearly all tools were for the hunting and processing of meat. This went on for about two million years with very little change. Same stone tools for millennia upon millennia Neanderthals were also meat eaters. We were truly apex predators. Specialised tools start to be found around 85,000 years ago for the processing of plants. By this time many large animal species had been made extinct or were much rarer, human populations were larger and in desperation humans took to majorly foraging for plants, first feeding them to prisoners to see which ones were too toxic. The beginning of our hideous dietary history akin to being driven out of the Garden of Eden.
A similar thing happened in Aotearoa when the Moa Hunters enjoyed a meat based diet for many years but had to change due to over hunting. Humans are just too good at hunting. We can even out run many animals. Dumb animals are pretty easy to hunt. Just herd them off cliffs and things like that. One problem was too much meat which was overcome by the increased acidification of our stomach juices enabling us to eat decaying meat. Our stomachs are more acidic than many pure predators. We also worked out how to dry and smoke meat. It's a super food really which enabled our brains to grow.
For 2 million years, humans ate meat and little else — study
Thanks. Will have a read. Intriguing that it goes against many earlier papers...so a fun area to dig in to. Intuitively you'd think they wouldn't have required tools for foraged vegetation, only with the move to agri/horti.
You're right, we are far too good at hunting animals to extinction and continue to do so now.
Unless the NPV calc for the original funds (at say 2% generously) has passed the current value of the equivalent of an ETF in the market it will not have been as good to have held cash.
I think while it is dis-heartening to see growth in your share based Kiwisaver disappear, the alternate in holding cash has been a losing investment over the last 10 years of the investment. It will take a significant and historic crash to reverse this.
But wait, there's more..
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-je…
Meanwhile I'm planning to put those funds I had for the kids' Kiwisavers in their accounts now. While time in the market is better in the long run, investing now rather than a month ago is looking to have paid off. Yes, yes, falling knife and all, but like I said, time in the market
Thinking rationally, the housing market should be affected worse than the stock market by increasing interest rates. Not only do the pathetic yields on offer look more and more pathetic as rates rise (same as stocks), but the majority of houses are bought on margin and this gets more and more expensive as rates rise, reducing affordability.
Unfortunately the housing market isn't always rational.
These moments do show the double-edged sword of liquidity. Perhaps the price you could sell your house for has fallen by 10% this year too, but you won't know about it for months so you don't panic. Meanwhile your Kiwisaver shows you an up-to-the-minute price and tempts you to bail out and click the 'conservative' button.
I disagree that the housing market will be affected worse than the stockmarket mfd.
My reasons are twofold:
1) The majority of houses are bought to live in, not speculate. People need a roof over their head, they don't need a share certificate.
2) The housing market is a lot less liquid, meaning less panic selling
I think you are probably right - classically the housing market has been less volatile than the stock market. Lower risk and lower reward.
However, this doesn't seem to be the case on the upside any more, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see the housing market becoming more volatile on the downside as well.
Exactly. So why was leveraged, thus speculative bank lending activity not curtailed by the regulator?
Banks have migrated away from lending to productive business enterprises because the risk weights can be as high as 150%. Thus around 60% of NZ bank lending is dedicated to residential property mortgages owed by one third of already wealthy households.
Let's not pretend that owner-occupiers see their house as just a roof over their head. It's their retirement plan, it's their children's inheritence, it's an ATM, it's an emergency fund, it's collateral for a small-business loan.
Most owner-occupiers expect (and in many instances require) house prices to increase far beyond what can be justified by the fundamentals. That is speculation by any reasonable definition.
Agreed but you are digressing from the point discussed, which was will houses go down in value more than shares. When I make the point that 2/3 of owed houses are owned by OO, my point is that they will not be in any hurry to sell if the value of their houses goes down for a while, thus a housing correction will be less extreme than a sharemarket correction.
mfd, percentagewise stock market will be multiple times that of housing market, if housing market just follow stock market by an inch, it will be disaster as in downturn, it is easy to liquidate your stock than the house. So if downturn continues long than housing market will have more adverse effect than stock market.
Observing all mum and dad builders who have stretched beyond by putting everything to be a builder ( including their home) are shit scared as new buyers as promised by their friendly real estate agent has dried up and many had launched with assurance that as soon as they announce the project will get queue of buyers to pre purchase. Many who had used their family and friends as dummy buyers to get bank finance are f@#$.
I don't have a whole lot of skin in shares so it's neither here nor there for me. I'm down about 4.6% but really not worried. I went through the GFC as a younger home owner with a sick wife and two children under 3 to look after, and if it taught me anything it's that while things can look (very) grim you just have to keep putting one foot in front of the other and ride it out until the situation improves. The bank may have closed the books on us at the worst possible time (we were $400 from being underwater at one point) but I had a stable job, and eventually things turned around.
I can see markets heading in a similar direction now, and while my wife is still sick my children are strong and healthy, we have more fat in our accounts, and I still have a recession-proof job (fate officially tempted). If our shares are wiped out then we haven't lost much, and if property prices halve then, well, we still have a roof over our heads and food in our bellies.
Our children's future is slowly looking brighter as interest rates give them more for their savings and property prices stall/fall to give them a better start as adults. If this proves to be the fabled Great Reset then it sucks for me but better for future generations.
Everyone invested in stock market is down and if you are down by just 5% is excellent in current situation and reflects that you have fundamentally sound companies, which will be first to bounce back whenever market recovers as most investors are down much much more.
Worst effected will be young new investors who started just after pandemic, who do not know what a crash is and are those who were lucky initially with fast and big gain which fuelled their greed and must have gone overboard.
Ups and downs are part of any investment (including NZ property). You make the real money through time in the market so ride out the downs and ensure you can meet your cashflow.
Shares also have the advantage that you can dollar cost average into them each month and can diversify across all industries and countries at the touch of a button. Bring on the next downturn as I will just keep on buying and holding.
Share investments are for the long run. If your investment horizon is less than 10-15 years, then probably you should not have bought any shares in the first place. This is not the first correction, nor the last. There will be many more, that's for sure. Personally, I am waiting a few days more, and once the panic really gets in full swing, I will buy as many shares as I can. This is what I did during the GFC, when some commentators were proclaiming that that was the end of the world, and the returns I got since then have been eye-watering. Great pity that I missed the Covid dip in 2020: I did not sell but I did not buy either, unfortunately.
This time it is going to take a few years, I think, for the sharemarkets to look healthy again, as the great rates normalization process has now started, and interest rates will normalize in the World and in NZ. There is going to be some significant pain in all asset classes, and I think for example that the correction in the NZ housing prices is going to be huge. I would not be surprised to see housing in NZ decrease in real terms by 30 to 40% within the next 2-3 years. Current house prices in NZ do not make any sense, and are so utterly divorced from economic fundamentals that it is not even funny. But it all comes down, again, to the investment horizon.
The asset class that I see as virtually dead for quite some time is bonds. Central banks in the world have virtually killed this market, causing bond prices that simply did not make any sense.
I take back my above comment. I'll wait a few more days before paying into those Kiwisavers. I take it you didn't buy into Solid Energy in the GFC then? =)
You're on the right track. In '29, some people made it big. In '87 ditto. Those who got scared or invested with a view to getting rich quick lost big. That money went somewhere...
Following on from your claim that you did not believe or understand why the CCCFA makes it harder for borrowers to get finance, this from T Alexander today:
The monthly survey of mortgage advisers which I run with mortgages.co.nz shows that the CCCFA-induced credit crunch continues to depress mortgage activity and therefore the property purchase aspirations of first home buyers as well as investors and owner-occupiers more generally. The results and comments from advisors illustrating the extreme difficulties loan applicants now face can be accessed here.
Translation:
The monthly survey of mortgage advisers which I run with mortgages.co.nz shows that banks have been lending recklessly without fully considering what the customer may be able to repay which has depressed mortgage activity back to levels of responsible lending and therefore the has stopped propping up the overblown debt bubble. The results and comments from advisors whining that the gravy train is leaving the station can be accessed here,
Having just completed this stressful and time wasting process and now being $1k lighter for the privilege (a set of valuations) of borrowing I can testify that it is currently harder to get financing than at any time in the past 20 years (my experience YMMV).
What I would say is that this is actually the point of the policy - ie it is working.
Also I would remind those that think this might be fixed by the government hearing the banks complain to review the track record of this government. Working parties to infinity and beyond.
Someone with practical experience may be able to give you better advice, but I have heard good things about The Perth Mint.
The third option is to buy shares in a gold miner - there are plenty to choose from listed on the ASX and the share prices are not demanding even at current gold prices. If you expect a decent rise they should respond strongly. No good if you're after the Prepper benefits or shiny pleasure of solid gold, of course. Oh, and don't be tempted by NTL on the NZX - they have a storied history but it does not involve much actual mining of gold.
Thanks mfd. Not looking for a profit, more just a percent of the assets in something tangible and not some figures on a screen. And untraceable.
Probably would hold for a decade or two and the kids will end up with them.
Mind you, if the world went to hell, the gold coins would still be useless at the supermarket.
I just went into a store in Wellington and asked to buy some gold bullion. The ones I got were Perth Mint, and come in these little packets with a serial number, apparently used to authenticate for easy selling. The same shop will buy gold off you too, but of course prices will have to rise a lot before you can beat their margins.
I invest in Gold via the Perth Mint gold ETF. The price tracks the gold price (in Au$). You can buy on the ASX via any share broker - ticker is GOLD.
I like it because each share is backed by physical gold which is kept in the Perth mint. 1 share = 0.1oz.
I also hold a range of gold miner and explorations shares. Their share price is more leveraged to changes in gold price depending on what their cost of production is. There are some good ones on the Australian market. If you don't want to invest directly in shares you can also buy the GDX.ASX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. This tracks the overall performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry in Australia.
I haven't bought coins to date. I've been put off by the fact I have to pay for storage and GST on the transactions. I know the real doomers suggest that physical gold is the only way to invest in gold but I'm thinking the Mad Max scenario is few decades off yet
Thanks Ptolemy. I'm in the Mad Max scenario on this. But only for a miniscule percentage of assets. Say 10-25K.
So shares etc don't cut it for that purpose. Although I do have them.
Can't think of why I would buy coins and pay holding costs. You would keep them within reach I think.
Mad Max is always imminent in some countries. There folk keep jewelry and gold to grab for when they need to bolt for the border.
Not practical in NewZealand as it's a long swim out and bullion makes ya sink.
I hold gold and silver coins. Do your research as prices vary wildly between sellers. The problem with holding physical is the storage costs. As some have mentioned Perth Mint have a variety of investment options and they are backed by the WA govt. Have a look on their website.
My understanding is that an inflationary period where wages actually increase (so it gets locked in) bakes in more of the previous cycles gains, which a regular old crash would instead see erased. So while you might look at asset prices drifting down and feel bad, it's better to think long term and gather the troops for another round of buying?
I suppose we had the good times and now it's time to pay up and get back to trend. Parachutes at the ready?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/04/regressio…
Wall street Slumps is understatement. Wall street has been slumping since number of days and if it continues few more days, many will bleed to death.
Hope it ends quickly or is this is just the beginning if so many investors will be wiped out and what if it rubs on housing market and it too follows the same route even by few percentage, it will be blood on the streets and reserve bank in trying to help will do more damage as they have done after pandemic.
Reserve bank have tied themselves in a knot and either direction they move will be squeezing themselves.
Now in Mr Orr's inFAMOUS words : Wait and Watch.
I've been buying with cash for a while. I'm just slightly bothered, about 2/10 on the irritation scale. I sold SP500 but will be actually buying more tech as we go further down. Mind you, this is money I won't need in the next 5-10-20-? years. Dollar cost averaging still seems like a good idea.
I have been put off buying into tech given their high prices until very recently. Some stocks are now looking much more reasonable and I'm looking to invest. I have been looking at PATH, SQ, PLTR, SOFI and some semi-conductor stocks. Also having a cheeky look at CPNG and other international tech companies.
Any companies you have interest in?
My speculative tech stocks have been obliterated (-25% on average in the past two weeks), luckily I only put some loose change in them. Still sold all my SP500 at +17% (bought them early 2021). Keeping the my tiny NZ portfolio untouched for now... and for the next 5+ years probably.
I'm looking forward to the crash. The excessive gambling caused this mess and it's time for the more financially conservative people to shine.
The bond market is rallying in a minor but unconvincing way.
Hmmmm....
The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +72 bps
Near Record Foreign Demand For Stellar 2Y Auction Suggests Fed Tightening Panic Is Over
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate collapsing
Turkey Hit By Unprecedented Power Outages As Iran Halts Gas Flows
A geopolitical warning to a NATO member of how the future could unfold in a sanction laden world?
The Fed gearing up to plunge the US into recession, increase unemployment, etc - all in the hope that reducing aggregate demand will persuade the Saudis to reduce the price of oil, end price gouging (looking at you shipping companies and meat packers), and stop hurricanes hitting their oil reserves infrastructure. Madness.
Not really. People positioned themselves (derisked) recently for the worst with the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow. When the fed don't make any unexpected announcements tomorrow (they won't - can't have the markets nuking anymore right now!) then equities and crypto will get a relief rally. After that, who knows.
So now that inflation is rampant and stock markets are in freefall, what does the crypto community have to say about BTC & co also falling? Wasn't crypto supposed to be the safe haven against inflation? The future of money?
Or was it just the same horde of newbie speculators pushing up prices that also flooded the stock markets?
Crypto as an inflation hedge is a meme. It was(is) the current narrative. It was a digital currency to begin with, then digital gold. Soon there will be a new narrative. Crypto market keeps going up and down, money to be made all the time. Unless you're a long term (10 years +) buyer then don't marry a up only or down only bias.
Yep VTHO ! ......and those 3 famous words that apply particularly to BTC ......"BUY THE DIP !!"
IT IS STILL THE BEST ASSET CLASS - PERIOD.
The way things are shaping up, for those out there NOT in property investments or FHB's hold on to your HATS ! ......we are in for a "wild ride" says the "Crazy Horse"....what goes up must come .....d o w n !
....it will come back ....people down this end of the world only think with a "local" focus" when it comes to CRYPTO...there is plenty of cash floating in bank accounts all across the world ...think "POSITIVE" .....plus Wall St are in it now too (despite the fact they blatantly "manipulate" the market) ....and their bank accounts are bigger than the GDP of Aotearoa
PLEASE tell me a time kiwimm when has BTC ever "stopped" trading ??? ......it is not going to go away..... the kiwi residential property market will just come back to where it should of been all along ....I'm not "anti-property" I LOVE PROPERTY ....just ANTI how the property market is manipulated in our fine country :)
https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2021-10/ca36f051-c1d0-4696-8746-64…
Good afternoon kiwimm ...the answer to your tulip question is found on the graph above, thank you CH
Still for sale today (although somewhat cheaper) Tulips | Order Tulip Bulbs online | Bulbs Direct NZ
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