Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news dominated by a speculative surge.
Bitcoin has leaped overnight, now at US$13,600 and a gain of more than +US$2000 or +19% since this time yesterday. Since the start of this week, it is up +25%; since the start of last week bitcoin is up more than +50%. In New Zealand dollars, it has breached NZ$20,000, the highest since January 2018. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
In the US, new orders for durable goods fell -3.3% in May from the same month a year ago. In April they showed zero year-on-year growth. Much of the decline is because of Boeing’s 737 MAX problems, but the drying up of aircraft orders isn’t the only weak spot. Capital goods orders fell -10%.
American retail inventories jumped almost +5% in May 2019 from May 2018. Wholesale inventories are up almost +8% on the same basis. Orders falling and unsold stock rising is not a great signal.
Meanwhile their merchandise trade deficit rose to -US$78 bln in May, 10% more than the same month a year ago. Their exports are down -2%, their imports are up +1.9% on that basis. Although the tariff strategy doesn't seem to be working, the US Administration looks like it is preparing to do more of it. It is not China selling, it is American firms buying that seems to be the real issue.
However, the US Treasury Secretary is giving an upbeat assessment of the chances of a trade deal when the Presidents of China and the US meet this weekend.
Wall Street has reacted by rolling back early session gains and the S&P500 is now lower. The US dollar is falling.
And Wall Street has downgraded America's largest milk processor to "penny stock" status. Dean Foods has far larger problems than Fonterra.
Meanwhile, US avocado prices are soaring.
China has halted all meat imports from Canada. It claims it has found forged certificates in some shipments. An initial investigation by the Canadians confirms the problem. This comes as China is trying to pressure Canada on trade to prevent the extradition of a top Huawei executive to the US on sanctions charges.
In Australia, a new survey records that less than a third of Australians trust China to act responsibly, a 20-point plunge compared to last year and the lowest proportion recorded since the survey began in 2005. The same survey says Aussies rate New Zealand as "best friends".
Meanwhile, the value of engineering work completed in Australia is down sharply. This is not normally a data item we follow, but the -13% year-on-year fall to March is significant.
And Melbourne is the venue for 'secret' negotiations to bring the RCEP trade deal over the line. Its like a watered down TPP deal that can include China and Japan, but it won't include the US.
The UST 10yr yield is rising today and now at 2.05% and firmer by +6 bps. Their 2-10 curve is now at +27 bps an their negative 1-5 curve is at -17 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 1.33% and a +5 bps rise from yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is little-changed at 3.28%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is up +2 bps to 1.57%.
Gold is lower today, down by -US13 to US$1,411/oz.
US oil prices are higher today. They are now just over US$59.50/bbl because the latest American crude stocks data came in unexpectedly low. The Brent benchmark is now at US$66.50.
The Kiwi dollar is still rising and across the board, and is now at 66.9 USc. On the cross rates we are also firm at 95.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 58.8 euro cents. That all pushes the TWI-5 up to 71.4 and a three month high.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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56 Comments
Bitcoin dead huh? Nouriel Roubini - FEb 2018 " has lost more than half its value since hitting a peak of near $20,000 in the week before Christmas. Dubbed “Dr Doom”, Roubini said the sharp fall was the beginning of a crash that would see the value of the digital currency plummet “all the way down to zero”.
Reason why Bitcoin is suddenly on the rise is due to Hong Kong protestors buying Bitcoin over fears of mainland control. The proposed law would allow Chinese authorities to extradite any Hong Kong citizen to mainland China, so the wealthy are trying to find ways to get their cash out as quickly as possible.
You did indeed. I believe you say it would go to 5.7k this year - even that would be a 60% return on investment. Meanwhile I was selling everything I could, cashing in annual leave and buying. And everyone here (not you) laughed at me hysterically. I woke up this morning $16k alone - as in money earned in my sleep. I've earned more in the last 2 days than some people earn in a year.
Lonewolfnz, are you buying holding or selling.
by lonewolfnz | 18th Jun 19, 4:25pm
Breaking news. After 16 months of HODLing, I have started to sell my bitcoins (altcoins are mostly already sold). I sold today at 9,326. Next sell point will be 9,800. We have got to the point where even I think this is unsustainable.
Bitcoin just collapsed 2000USD in past hour. https://www.dailyfx.com/bitcoin?ref=TopRates
Hope you're paying tax on those bitcoin profits, as the IRD requires you to do (yes, even if you're using the bitcoin to buy items via debit card, you have to pay tax on the gains using fiat - see Q4 and Q5): https://www.classic.ird.govt.nz/income-tax-individual/cryptocurrency-qa…
My crypto holdings are worth x9 since December. I'm 90% in bitcoin now, but some cryptos have gone up a lot more - for example, Enjin, Chainlink, Binance coin even Litecoin. We are talking returns of up to 900% in a six month period. Still... wish I had bought more damn.
Yeah there is a reason why Bitcoin crashed in 2017acording to a recent Forbes article on Bitcoin. Where its value skyrocketed from $1k to over $19k. China cryptocurrency exchanges were said to account for 90% of global bitcoin trading. But in late 2017, the Chinese government cracked down on Bitcoin — banning cryptocurrency exchanges. That set off the crash, from $19k to $3k. Owning and buying Bitcoin in China is not banned.
I'm guessing the reasons for Bitcoins current jump up is due the recent Hong Kong protests, the wealthy are trying to get their capital out of China urgently.
So with that in mind, depends on how trusting you are when one of Bitcoins biggest portion of users are in a country where it's Government can shut down their trading activity in the blink of an eye causing it to crash. Plus China has been talking about creating its own Government controlled cryptocurrency that it would persuade its people to switch over to, now that could get really interesting.
Forbes article: Bitcoin Is All About Chinese Capital Flight
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanrich/2019/05/14/bitcoin-is-all-about-…
or example, Enjin, Chainlink, Binance coin even Litecoin. We are talking returns of up to 900% in a six month period. Still... wish I had bought more damn.
And you don't even mention XRP. I also own BTC (less than USD100) and much more of XRP. I buy very small amounts (less than USD20) at a time. The price has been very stable. No fireworks. My ROI is closer to 10%. But it does have a proven use case, which I think is quite powerful compared to the ICOs you mention.
Biggest Share-Buyback Queens
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/26/what-if-this-runs-out-of-juice-the-bi…
"Investors should recognize that there is a certain amount of information content in those initial rate cuts. Specifically, when the Federal Reserve shifts from tightening (or normalizing) monetary policy and instead begins a fresh round of rate cuts, it’s a clear indication that something in the economy has gone wrong.
Moreover, the historical evidence is very clear that when investor psychology shifts from speculation to risk-aversion "
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190626/
It is not China selling, it is American firms buying that seems to be the real issue.
I am sure everybody including the Trump administration is aware of that.
Politicians and economists prefer to misplace the blame on the Chinese and, more ridiculously, on the efficiency of the US' global supply chain for the country incurring large deficits.
High energy prices, poor infrastructure, broken schooling system, absence of vocational education, nearsightedness of US corporations - why fix these real problems when slapping tariffs on imports is a lot easier.
Interesting isn't it. It is politically ok to talk China down, and let's face it, they deserve the browbeating they are getting. On the other hand, the treachery of the US political, bureaucratic and military classes, corporate America, and American finance, is a harder target, but why a political outsider was elected as president. The political situation is volatile and unpredictable as long suppressed resentments find expression.
Re the BITCOIN story, in our practice we have these young guns , fresh out of Uni who bang on about Bitcoin .
I keep saying its a scam , and it is , and I am seen as an old conservative Boomer .
But here's the thing .......
Its too volatile to ever be taken seriously as a means of exchange
And,
My first 2 rules of investing is , if I dont understand how the money, or income , or value is generated , or I dont fully understand the risks, then I leave it alone .
Hell, its not tangible like other non productive assets like gold ( for example ) we dont know who is behind it or how its value is formulated, what is makes or owns , what the interest rate is, or who fixes the price .
We are in the dark as it were and there is nothing to back it except for the confidence of punters
In other words its really no different to putting your money into a pokie machine or buying a lotto ticket, except that the numbers are huge
I keep saying its a scam , and it is , and I am seen as an old conservative Boomer .
I think you lose your own argument right there. You're looking through your own prism and calling it a "scam." Voltaire said "At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.”. History proves that he has been quite right.
And you would call Bitcoin a scam.
Yes totally agree Boatman. Especially when that currency is subject to the whips of a very controlling government. Currently around 90% of Bitcoins users are from China, it will be interesting to see what happens to Bitcoin when China creates it's own cryptocurrency which it's currently planning to implement one soon.
dead right boatman. Too volatile and most of it owned by a very few who have the ability to manipulate the price. There has been a massive promotion over the last month or two and the lemmings have swallowed it. It will rise to great heights before the same players dump at the top. Rinse and repeat.
You say Bitcoin is a scam and then in the next breath that you don't understand how it works. How about taking an hour out of your day to learn how it works? Start by reading the original Bitcoin white paper: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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