Markets signal recession warnings; bond yields invert; US import prices rise; China data very weak; German Q2 GDP negative; speculation of Brexit call without Parliament; UST 10yr yield at 1.58%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.3 USc; TWI-5 = 69.7

"No," said a new voice from the further end of the hall, beyond Cowslip. "Rabbits need dignity and, above all, the will to accept their fate."
"We think Silverweed is one of the best poets we've had for many months," said Cowslip. "His ideas have a great following. Would you like to hear him now?"
"Yes, yes," said voices from all sides. "Silverweed!"
"Hazel," said Fiver suddenly, "I want to get a clear idea of this Silverweed, but I daren't go closer by myself. Will you come with me?"
"Why, Fiver, whatever do you mean? What is there to be afraid of?"
"Oh, Frith help me!" said Fiver, trembling. "I can smell him from here. He terrifies me."
"Oh, Fiver, don't be absurd! He just smells the same as the rest of them."
"He smells like barley rained down and left to rot in the fields. He smells like a wounded mole that can't get underground."
"He smells like a big, fat rabbit to me, with a lot of carrots inside. But I'll come with you."
When they had edged their way through the crowd to the far end of the burrow, Hazel was surprised to realize that Silverweed was a mere youngster. In the Sandleford warren no rabbit of his age would have been asked to tell a story, except perhaps to a few friends alone. He had a wild, desperate air and his ears twitched continually. As he began to speak, he seemed to grow less and less aware of his audience and continually turned his head, as though listening to some sound, audible only to himself, from the entrance tunnel behind him. But there was an arresting fascination in his voice, like the movement of wind and light on a meadow, and as its rhythm entered into his hearers the whole burrow became silent.

The wind is blowing, blowing over the grass.
It shakes the willow catkins; the leaves shine silver.
Where are you going, wind? Far, far away
Over the hills, over the edge of the world.
Take me with you, wind, high over the sky.
I will go with you, I will be rabbit-of-the-wind,
Into the sky, the feathery sky and the rabbit.
The stream is running, running over the gravel,
Through the brooklime, the kingcups, the blue and gold of spring.
Where are you going, stream? Far, far away
Beyond the heather, sliding away all night.
Take me with you, stream, away in the starlight.
I will go with you, I will be rabbit-of-the-stream,
Down through the water, the green water and the rabbit.

In autumn the leaves come blowing, yellow and brown.
They rustle in the ditches, they tug and hang on the hedge.
Where are you going leaves? Far, far away
Into the earth we go, with the rain and the berries.
Take me, leaves, O take me on your dark journey.
I will go with you, I will be rabbit-of-the-leaves,
In the deep places of the earth, the earth and the rabbit.

Frith lies in the evening sky. The clouds are red about him.
I am here, Lord Frith, I am running through the long grass.
O take me with you, dropping behind the woods,
Far away, to the heart of light, the silence.
For I am ready to give you my breath, my life,
The shining circle of the sun, the sun and the rabbit.

Fiver, as he listened, had shown a mixture of intense absorption and incredulous horror. At one and the same time he seemed to accept every word and yet to be stricken with fear. Once he drew in his breath, as though startled to recognize his own half-known thoughts; and when the poem was ended he seemed to be struggling to come to himself. He bared his teeth and licked his lips, as Blackberry had done before the dead hedgehog on the road.
A rabbit in fear of an enemy will sometimes crouch stock still, either fascinated or else trusting to its natural inconspicuousness to remain unnoticed. But then, unless the fascination is too powerful, there comes the point when keeping still is discarded and the rabbit, as though breaking a spell, turns in an instant to its other resource -- flight. So it seemed to be with Fiver now. Suddenly he leaped up and began to push his way violently across the great burrow. Several rabbits were jostled and turned angrily on him, but he took no notice. Then he came to a place where he could not push between two heavy warren bucks.

"Mortgage applications in the US hits 21.7% in the previous week. "

For anyone else wondering 21.7% of what.. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/weekly-mortgage-refinances-spike-37perc…

Mortgage application volume jumped 21.7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Volume zoomed 81% from a year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.93%, from 4.01%

That drove a stunning 37% jump in refinance volume for the week, the highest level since July 2016. Refinance applications were nearly three times higher than a ago.

So another smile and wave PM...ok?

Don't agree.
There is a spectrum of 'transparency, openess and honesty'
Certainly, capitalist nations are not perfect. But they are much further towards the 'ideal state' than communist regimes.

Thanks for info Withay

They store it in a safe deposit box for you, or you were dropping by and collecting an ounce (heh) and depositing it in your own safe deposit box?
I work just around the corner and was going to drop by next week to look into options.

Thanks, I have been looking for something like that. Signed up already....maybe you should ask for a commission.

interesting blog post from them..

http://www.gogold.co.nz/news-item/tonys-market-round-up

"Our offices here in Onehunga have been overrun with customers this past week, all of them clamoring for the yellow metal. Thursday was one of the busiest days we have ever experienced, comparable with some days shortly after the last GFC.

But the focus wasn’t on making a profit for our customers – it was about protecting their hard earned money. The collective voice was, ‘I need to get money out of the banks’. For the first time in my 40 years in the bullion industry, people showed they were nervous to leave money in the banking system.

Interestingly, it was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 0.5% rate drop down to 1% that caused the most concern, and not the FOMO of the racing gold market.

Carefull with your paper gold when its time to collect.

Sew up some horrid looking fabric cover out of some trendy in the 1960's fabric and no-one would look twice at them.

boom

Which govts to you expect to default on their govt bonds? That's where most of my kiwisaver is invested, so unless uncle Sam falls over I'm not worried. Very little in corporate or equities.

(Which is where you should be if you were planning on cashing out kiwisaver for a house in the next few years.. shouldn't be in a growth fund if you want to access that money anytime soon)

.

Negative interest rates equals deflation.

During deflation your debt rises in value.

Go ahead, borrow as much as you can. Do it.

All these interest rate drops sure are reassuring the markets. No expectation of recession and further rate drops...

Credit availability will dry up like a mud-pool in Feb. As a consequence its interest rates will go through the roof.

So go ahead, borrow up to your eyeballs at the start of a decade of deflation. Do it.

Banks borrow short and lend it out long term. Since the Yield-Curve has inverted this is now an unprofitable business.

Hence, credit will dry up.

Japan is fascinating. The first Asian nation to industrialise. The first modern Asian nation to defeat a European military invasion, the defeat of not one, but two Imperial Russian Fleets in 1905. The Divine Wind defeat of the Chinese invasion fleet in 1281 (not surpassed in size until the 1944 Normandy landings), with its strange parallel with the nation forming Defeat of the Spanish Armada in Britain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Japan

We are an island nation. It deeply affects how we think, in ways we are only dimly aware of.

So we still haven't learned anything from history because "that's the way we've always done it" is easier than choosing a different and maybe better way.

The reference to primates is a false narrative as we are able to choose whether to be driven by animalistic instincts.

I'm not that young, only one step down from baby boomers. I just choose to question dogma and conditioning.

Most of what we think we know has come from interpretation by a few and then imposed on the masses. Doesn't make it true or correct.