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Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news both consumers and courts are influential today.
In a widely-watched survey, American consumer confidence slipped in September for a second month in a row. The deepening trade tensions fanned concerns about business and labour market conditions. Consumer spending has been driving the American economy and faltering confidence is an out-sized risk to that expansion.
Of course, consumer confidence is a lagging indicator. One leading indicator includes confidence by producers, and in the latest regional Fed survey in the Mid-Atlantic states, the news is generally downbeat as well.
It is not all negative in the US, although the positive data out today for house prices is now two months old. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose +3.2% in July from a year ago, the same gain reported in June. Prices are still cooling in the largest cities, however.
Wall Street is down -0.8% on the flagging consumer confidence data and few signs of progress on the trade front. Benchmark bond yields have fallen. And the oil price has dipped on the expectation of lower demand in the world's largest economy.
China seems to have decided to shift its potential soybean orders away from the US to Brazil. Not only will that hurt the Americans, it won't be good for Brazillian deforestation pressures either.
Japan latest PMI's for September show an expanding economy that has shown some surprising strength in the past three months, led by its service sector.
In Germany, their IFO sentiment survey improved slightly in September. The rise was due to better immediate assessments. However, the outlook for the coming months worsened again.
In Brussels, an EU court struck down a European Commission order for Starbucks to pay €30 mln in back taxes to the Netherlands. A similar case involving Fiat is awaiting a decision. And Google also won a case involving Europe's right-to-be-forgotten law where the judges rules it can't be made to apply globally.
In the UK, their Brexit mess got even messier. They have a new prime minister who has lost every vote and decision he has made in his short tenure. It has the hallmarks of a 'failed state'. New elections seem certain soon, but that too may not resolve anything.
In Australia, regulator Austrac has ordered the appointment of an external auditor to examine ongoing concerns in regard to PayPal Australia’s compliance with their anti money laundering laws.
At 2 pm today, the RBNZ will release its decision on its latest OCR review. Universally, analysts expect no change although to be fair analyst expectations were wrong at the last review. In Australia, the expectation is that the next RBA review will bring another cut for the core reason that not to cut will see the Aussie dollar rise and undermine their tenuous growth track. Currency wars in action.
The UST 10yr yield is sharply lower today, at 1.64% and down -7 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2-10 curve is still positive at +3 bps. Their negative 1-5 curve is wider at -27 bps. Their negative 3m-10yr curve is slightly wider at -28 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -4 bps to 0.96%. The China Govt 10yr is at 3.13% and up +2 bps. The NZ Govt 10 yr is still at 1.16%, unchanged overnight.
Gold is up +US$3 to US$1526/oz.
US oil prices are down sharply, down more than -US$1.50 at now just on US$57/bbl. The Brent benchmark has fallen too to just on US$63.
The Kiwi dollar has firmed slightly this morning, up to 63.2 USc. On the cross rates we are still at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are at 57.4 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 back up to just on 68.5.
Bitcoin is now at US$9,478 and that is another -3.3% lower than this time yesterday. In fact, this price has now fallen below NZ$15,000 for the first time since July. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».